Winter survival of lesser scaup in east-central Florida

The North American continental population of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been declining since the mid-1980s. Seasonal survival estimates may provide insights about the ecological basis for this decline, but such data are not available. We estimated post-harvest winter survival of lesser scaup in east-central Florida, USA, where 62% of the Atlantic Flyway population winters. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate from 11 January to 14 March 2002 was 0.95 ?? 0.04 (SE) for females and 0.90 ?? 0.09 for males. These estimates were not different (P = 0.64), and pooled survival was 0.93 ?? 0.04. Temporary emigration (movement out of and return to the study area) was exhibited by 25% of the birds during survey periods, but absences were short and were believed to have had little effect on precision of survival estimates. Our findings suggested that natural mortality at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) and surrounding estuarine areas was relatively low. Our results also indicate that habitat quality in this portion of east-central Florida was sufficient to meet overwintering requirements and likely contributed to the reported survival rates. Estimating survival during other stages of the annual cycle, as well as an overall winter estimate reflecting harvest mortality, is necessary to determine whether low survival rates are responsible for continental population declines.