Adam Terando, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 26
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require...
Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals. The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts...
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has...
Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires...
Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some...
Filter Total Items: 61
Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are:Using an “all models” approach;Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response;Bayesian...
Authors
Ryan Boyles, Catherine A. Nikiel, Brian W. Miller, Jeremy S. Littell, Adam J. Terando, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay R. Alder, Derek H. Rosendahl, Adrienne M. Wootten
Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and...
Authors
Georgina M. Sanchez, Anna Petrasova, Megan M. Skrip, Elyssa Collins, Margaret A. Lawrimore, John B. Vogler, Adam Terando, Jelena Vukomanovic, Helena Mitasova, Ross K. Meentemeyer
Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico
Climate change impacts on tourism are well documented, with most studies focusing on challenges facing ski or beach tourism. While non-ski, mountain tourism accounts for almost one fifth of tourism worldwide, there is a dearth of research on tourists’ perceptions of climate change impacts and their effects on tourism demand in these areas. This study, conducted at the ecotourism...
Authors
Ginger Deason, Erin Seekamp, Adam Terando, Camila Rojas
Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity
Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright...
Authors
Elias Massoud, Huikyo Lee, Adam Terando, Michael Wehner
Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over...
Authors
Wesley W. Boone, Christopher E. Moorman, Adam Terando, David J. Moscicki, Bret A. Collier, Michael J. Chamberlain, Krishna Pacifici
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura Thompson
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 26
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require...
Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals. The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts...
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has...
Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires...
Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some...
Filter Total Items: 61
Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem Approaches for using CMIP projections in climate model ensembles to address the ‘hot model’ problem
Several recent generation global-climate models were found to have anomalously high climate sensitivities and may not be useful for certain applications. Four approaches for developing ensembles of climate projections for applications that address this issue are:Using an “all models” approach;Screening using equilibrium climate sensitivity and (or) transient climate response;Bayesian...
Authors
Ryan Boyles, Catherine A. Nikiel, Brian W. Miller, Jeremy S. Littell, Adam J. Terando, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay R. Alder, Derek H. Rosendahl, Adrienne M. Wootten
Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and...
Authors
Georgina M. Sanchez, Anna Petrasova, Megan M. Skrip, Elyssa Collins, Margaret A. Lawrimore, John B. Vogler, Adam Terando, Jelena Vukomanovic, Helena Mitasova, Ross K. Meentemeyer
Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico
Climate change impacts on tourism are well documented, with most studies focusing on challenges facing ski or beach tourism. While non-ski, mountain tourism accounts for almost one fifth of tourism worldwide, there is a dearth of research on tourists’ perceptions of climate change impacts and their effects on tourism demand in these areas. This study, conducted at the ecotourism...
Authors
Ginger Deason, Erin Seekamp, Adam Terando, Camila Rojas
Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity
Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright...
Authors
Elias Massoud, Huikyo Lee, Adam Terando, Michael Wehner
Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over...
Authors
Wesley W. Boone, Christopher E. Moorman, Adam Terando, David J. Moscicki, Bret A. Collier, Michael J. Chamberlain, Krishna Pacifici
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura Thompson