Full name: Annemarie Baltay Sundstrom
I study how physical measures of earthquakes and the earth control ground motions measured at distance, and how ground motion observations can be used to gain insight on the earthquake source and path. I am particularly interested in earthquake stress drop: how it is measured, what is the variability, and how that all relates to ground motion data and models. I am also focused on physical components and uncertainty of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), a critical building block in hazard maps. Reducing the variability and uncertainty in GMPEs is imperative to building better hazard maps, as well as for performing more accurate site-specific hazard studies for critical facilities. Currently, I am working towards physical explanations for variability in the source, site, and path components in ground motions. Ultimately we will develop models for predicting those effects from geophysical observables, such as stress drop (for source), site velocity profiles and attenuation (for site), and whole-path attenuation (for path). I am also involved in the USGS-led ShakeAlert earthquake early warning project, which aims to alert the U.S. West coast for earthquake ground motion before it arrives at a user's location; as part of that project, I work on the best ways to model ground motion and associated uncertainty in early warning, as well as chair the Ground Motion Working Group and collaborate on the PLUM algorithm development.
Professional Experience
2015 - present Research Geophysicist, U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA
2013 - 2015 Mendenhall Postdoctoral Scholar, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park
2012 Postdoctoral Scholar, Department of Geophysics, Stanford University
2012 Instructor, Understanding Natural Hazards, Quantifying Risk and Increasing Resilience in Highly Urbanized Regions, Department of Geology, Stanford University
2010 Summer Intern for Europe Earthquake Model Development, Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA
2009 Graduate Student
Education and Certifications
2011 Ph.D. Geophysics, Department of Geophysics, Stanford University
2008 M.S. Geophysics, Department of Geophysics, Stanford University
2005 B.A. Applied Mathematics, Yale University
Science and Products
Shaking, Damage and Failure
Earthquake Early Warning – Fine-Tuning for Best Alerts
What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning
Spatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California
Real-time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of PLUM ground-motion-based early warning in the United States
Empirical map-based nonergodic models of site response in the greater Los Angeles area
Earthquake early warning for estimating floor shaking levels of tall buildings
Alert optimization of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm for the western United States
The impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning
Shaking is almost always a surprise: The earthquakes that produce significant ground motion
Strain-estimated ground motions associated with recent earthquakes in California
Developing post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America
Repeatable source, path, and site effects from the 2019 Ridgecrest M7.1 earthquake sequence
Real-time performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning method during the 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes
Science and Products
- Science
Shaking, Damage and Failure
Engineers require accurate estimates of strong ground motion in order to design structures to resist earthquake loads and reduce loss of life and property from damaging earthquakes. In addition, engineers need recordings of structural response to validate their design methodologies. In order to improve seismic hazard assessments, we need to advance our understanding of the physical processes that...Earthquake Early Warning – Fine-Tuning for Best Alerts
Release Date: OCTOBER 8, 2019 The goal of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system is to provide an alert to people and automatic systems after an earthquake begins but before the shaking reaches their location. As the USGS and its partners are developing an EEW system, called ShakeAlert®, for the West Coast, the benefits, costs, capabilities, and limitations are being investigated. Two recent... - Publications
Filter Total Items: 35
What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning
We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW shaking forecasts including site conditions (which caSpatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California
We develop an empirical, spatially continuous model for the single-station within-event (ϕSS) component of earthquake ground motion variability in the Los Angeles area. ϕSS represents event-to-event variability in site response or remaining variability due to path effects not captured by ground motion models. Site-specific values of ϕSS at permanent seismic network stations were estimated during oReal-time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of PLUM ground-motion-based early warning in the United States
We examine the real‐time earthquake detection and alerting behavior of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm and compare PLUM’s performance with the real‐time performance of the current source‐characterization‐based ShakeAlert System. In the United States (U.S.), PLUM uses a two‐station approach to detect earthquakes. Once a detection is confirmedEmpirical map-based nonergodic models of site response in the greater Los Angeles area
We develop empirical estimates of site response at seismic stations in the Los Angeles area using recorded ground motions from 414 M 3–7.3 earthquakes in southern California. The data are from a combination of the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 project, the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, and about 10,000 newly processed records. We estimate site response using an iterative mixed‐effects residualsEarthquake early warning for estimating floor shaking levels of tall buildings
This article investigates methods to improve earthquake early warning (EEW) predictions of shaking levels for residents of tall buildings. In the current U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert EEW system, regions far from an epicenter will not receive alerts due to low predicted ground‐shaking intensities. However, residents of tall buildings in those areas may still experience significant shaking dueAlert optimization of the PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm for the western United States
We determine an optimal alerting configuration for the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm for use by the U.S. ShakeAlert system covering California, Oregon, and Washington. All EEW systems should balance the primary goal of providing timely alerts for impactful or potentially damaging shaking while limiting alerts for shaking that is too low to beThe impact of 3D finite‐fault information on ground‐motion forecasting for earthquake early warning
We identify aspects of finite‐source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based on seismic data to characterize the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and origin time, treatiShaking is almost always a surprise: The earthquakes that produce significant ground motion
Although small earthquakes are expected to produce weak shaking, ground motion is highly variable and there are outlier earthquakes that generate more shaking than expected—sometimes significantly more. We explore datasets of M 0.5–8.3 earthquakes to determine the relative impact of frequent, smaller-magnitude earthquakes that rarely produce strong ground motion, to rare, large earthquakes that alStrain-estimated ground motions associated with recent earthquakes in California
Peak ground velocity (PGV) is a commonly used parameter in earthquake ground‐motion models (GMMs) and hazard analyses, because it is closely related to structural damage and felt ground shaking, and is typically measured on broadband seismometers. Here, we demonstrate that strainmeters, which directly measure in situ strain in the bulk rock, can easily be related to ground velocity by a factor ofDeveloping post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America
As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate expectations among various publics or public userRepeatable source, path, and site effects from the 2019 Ridgecrest M7.1 earthquake sequence
We use a large instrumental dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence (Rekoske et al., 2019, 2020) to examine repeatable source‐, path‐, and site‐specific ground motions. A mixed‐effects analysis is used to partition total residuals relative to the Boore et al. (2014; hereafter, BSSA14) ground‐motion model. We calculate the Arias intensity stress drop for the earthquakes and find strongReal-time performance of the PLUM earthquake early warning method during the 2019 M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquakes
We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of ground‐motion‐based earthquake early warning (EEW) during the July 2019 M6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. In 2018, we began retrospective and internal real‐time testing of the propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) method for earthquake warning in California, Oregon, and Washington, with the potential that PLUM might one day be included in the Sha