Brad Aagaard
Brad Aagaard is a research scientist in the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Ground-motion modeling
- Animations of ground shaking from computer simulations of earthquakes.
- 3D Geologic and Seismic Velocity Model of the San Francisco Bay Region
Software
PyLith crustal deformation modeling software, Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics.
Professional Experience
Research Geophysicist, USGS, 2003-present
USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Scholar, 2001-2003
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, 2000
M.S., Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, 1995
B.S., Engineering, Harvey Mudd College, 1994
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 50
Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations
The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our...
Authors
Gary S. Fuis, Klaus Bauer, Mark R. Goldman, Trond Ryberg, Victoria E. Langenheim, Daniel S. Scheirer, Michael J. Rymer, Joann M. Stock, John A. Hole, Rufus D. Catchings, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043 Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo
The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake
The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the Mw 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations...
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Fred F. Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Andrea L. Llenos, David P. Schwartz, J. Luke Blair, Daniel J. Ponti, James J. Lienkaemper, Victoria E. Langenheim, Timothy E. Dawson, Kenneth W. Hudnut, David R. Shelly, Douglas S. Dreger, John Boatwright, Brad T. Aagaard, David J. Wald, Richard M. Allen, William D. Barnhart, Keith L. Knudsen, Benjamin A. Brooks, Katherine M. Scharer
Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake
Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1)
Authors
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Thomas M. Brocher, Carol S. Prentice, John Boatwright, Benjamin A. Brooks, Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, Jon Peter B. Fletcher, Jemile Erdem, Charles W. Wicks, Jessica R. Murray, Fred F. Pollitz, John O. Langbein, Jerry L. Svarc, David P. Schwartz, Daniel J. Ponti, Suzanne Hecker, Stephen B. DeLong, Carla M. Rosa, Brenda Jones, Rynn M. Lamb, Anne M. Rosinski, Timothy P. McCrink, Timothy E. Dawson, Gordon G. Seitz, Craig Glennie, Darren Hauser, Todd Ericksen, Dan Mardock, Don F. Hoirup, Jonathan D. Bray, Ron S. Rubin
A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation
We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, M.G. Knepley, C.A. Williams
Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes
We examine the partition of long‐term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, James J. Lienkaemper, David P. Schwartz
Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models
Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and...
Authors
Robert W. Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion
In situations where seismological data is rare or nonexistent, computer simulations may be used to predict ground motions caused by future earthquakes. This is particularly practical in the case of extreme ground motions, where engineers of special buildings may need to design for an event that has not been historically observed but which may occur in the far-distant future. Once the...
Authors
R.A. Harris, M. Barall, D.J. Andrews, B. Duan, S. Ma, E.M. Dunham, A.-A. Gabriel, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, Brad T. Aagaard, D. D. Oglesby, J.-P. Ampuero, Thomas C. Hanks, N. Abrahamson
Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions
We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Robert W. Graves, Arthur Rodgers, Thomas M. Brocher, Robert W. Simpson, Douglas Dreger, N. Anders Petersson, Shawn C. Larsen, Shuo Ma, Robert C. Jachens
Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios
We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Robert W. Graves, David P. Schwartz, David A. Ponce, Russell W. Graymer
Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault
This data set contains results from ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, seven hypothetical earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault, and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The bulk of the data consists of synthetic velocity time-histories. Peak ground velocity on a 1/60th degree grid and geodetic displacements from the simulations are also included. Details...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Michael Barall, Thomas M. Brocher, David Dolenc, Douglas Dreger, Robert W. Graves, Stephen Harmsen, Stephen H. Hartzell, Shawn Larsen, Kathleen McCandless, Stefan Nilsson, N. Anders Petersson, Arthur Rodgers, Bjorn Sjogreen, Mary Lou Zoback
The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise
Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification...
Authors
R.A. Harris, M. Barall, R. Archuleta, E. Dunham, Brad T. Aagaard, J.-P. Ampuero, H. Bhat, Victor M. Cruz-Atienza, L. Dalguer, P. Dawson, S. Day, B. Duan, G. Ely, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, N. Lapusta, Yajing Liu, S. Ma, D. Oglesby, K. Olsen, A. Pitarka, S. Song, E. Templeton
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 50
Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations
The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our...
Authors
Gary S. Fuis, Klaus Bauer, Mark R. Goldman, Trond Ryberg, Victoria E. Langenheim, Daniel S. Scheirer, Michael J. Rymer, Joann M. Stock, John A. Hole, Rufus D. Catchings, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043 Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo
The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake
The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the Mw 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations...
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Fred F. Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Andrea L. Llenos, David P. Schwartz, J. Luke Blair, Daniel J. Ponti, James J. Lienkaemper, Victoria E. Langenheim, Timothy E. Dawson, Kenneth W. Hudnut, David R. Shelly, Douglas S. Dreger, John Boatwright, Brad T. Aagaard, David J. Wald, Richard M. Allen, William D. Barnhart, Keith L. Knudsen, Benjamin A. Brooks, Katherine M. Scharer
Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake
Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1)
Authors
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Thomas M. Brocher, Carol S. Prentice, John Boatwright, Benjamin A. Brooks, Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, Jon Peter B. Fletcher, Jemile Erdem, Charles W. Wicks, Jessica R. Murray, Fred F. Pollitz, John O. Langbein, Jerry L. Svarc, David P. Schwartz, Daniel J. Ponti, Suzanne Hecker, Stephen B. DeLong, Carla M. Rosa, Brenda Jones, Rynn M. Lamb, Anne M. Rosinski, Timothy P. McCrink, Timothy E. Dawson, Gordon G. Seitz, Craig Glennie, Darren Hauser, Todd Ericksen, Dan Mardock, Don F. Hoirup, Jonathan D. Bray, Ron S. Rubin
A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation
We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, M.G. Knepley, C.A. Williams
Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes
We examine the partition of long‐term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, James J. Lienkaemper, David P. Schwartz
Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models
Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and...
Authors
Robert W. Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion
In situations where seismological data is rare or nonexistent, computer simulations may be used to predict ground motions caused by future earthquakes. This is particularly practical in the case of extreme ground motions, where engineers of special buildings may need to design for an event that has not been historically observed but which may occur in the far-distant future. Once the...
Authors
R.A. Harris, M. Barall, D.J. Andrews, B. Duan, S. Ma, E.M. Dunham, A.-A. Gabriel, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, Brad T. Aagaard, D. D. Oglesby, J.-P. Ampuero, Thomas C. Hanks, N. Abrahamson
Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions
We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Robert W. Graves, Arthur Rodgers, Thomas M. Brocher, Robert W. Simpson, Douglas Dreger, N. Anders Petersson, Shawn C. Larsen, Shuo Ma, Robert C. Jachens
Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios
We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Robert W. Graves, David P. Schwartz, David A. Ponce, Russell W. Graymer
Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault
This data set contains results from ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, seven hypothetical earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault, and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The bulk of the data consists of synthetic velocity time-histories. Peak ground velocity on a 1/60th degree grid and geodetic displacements from the simulations are also included. Details...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Michael Barall, Thomas M. Brocher, David Dolenc, Douglas Dreger, Robert W. Graves, Stephen Harmsen, Stephen H. Hartzell, Shawn Larsen, Kathleen McCandless, Stefan Nilsson, N. Anders Petersson, Arthur Rodgers, Bjorn Sjogreen, Mary Lou Zoback
The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise
Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification...
Authors
R.A. Harris, M. Barall, R. Archuleta, E. Dunham, Brad T. Aagaard, J.-P. Ampuero, H. Bhat, Victor M. Cruz-Atienza, L. Dalguer, P. Dawson, S. Day, B. Duan, G. Ely, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, N. Lapusta, Yajing Liu, S. Ma, D. Oglesby, K. Olsen, A. Pitarka, S. Song, E. Templeton