Nedal T Nassar
Chief, Materials Flow Analysis Section
My research team and I quantify the global stocks and flows of nonfuel mineral commodities at each stage of their life cycle, analyze trends and examine concerns regarding foreign mineral dependencies, develop supply and demand scenarios, and assess the mineral commodity supply risk to the U.S. economy and national security.
I received my Ph.D. from Yale University where I worked on the development and application of a methodology for assessing critical minerals. I have continued that work as a leading member of the U.S. National Science and Technology Council (Executive Office of the President of the United States) Critical Minerals Subcommittee. I also serve as the Chair of the Project Steering Committee for National Minerals Information Center, a member of the Executive Committee for the Council of Senior Science Advisors at U.S. Geological Survey (PECASE member), and on the advisory board of various international research projects.
In 2019, I was awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the highest honor bestowed by the United States Government to outstanding scientists and engineers who are beginning their independent research careers. My research has been published in several high-profile journals and highlighted in major media outlets. I have also been called upon to testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, brief senior U.S. government officials, and invited to give keynote addresses and present my research at significant venues including The National Academies, the European Commission, and the World Bank.
Previously, I worked as a consultant and as a process development engineer in the semiconductors and data storage industries where I was the recipient of three trade secrets. I also hold a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from the University of Minnesota, an MBA in sustainable global enterprise from Cornell University, as well as two master’s degrees from Yale University.
Professional Experience
2021- Executive Committee, Council of Senior Science Advisors(COSSA)/(PECASE member, 2019), U.S. Geological Survey
2016- Chief, Minerals Flow Analysis Section, National Minerals Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey
2016- Chair, Project Steering Committee, National Minerals Information Center,U.S. Geological Survey
2015- Member, Critical Minerals Subcommittee, U.S. National Science & Technology Council, Executive Office of the President
2015-16 Physical scientist, National Minerals Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey
2011-15 PhD candidate, Center for Industrial Ecology, Yale University
2009-11 Research assistant, Center for Industrial Ecology, Yale University
2008-09 Sustainability consultant, Madison Environmental Group, Inc.
2007 Management consultant (MBA internship), Accenture
2004-06 Process development engineer, Hutchinson Technology, Inc.
2003-04 Process engineer, Hutchinson Technology, Inc.
2002 Process engineering co-op, Cypress Semiconductors
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. Industrial Ecology, Yale University
M.Phil. Industrial Ecology, Yale University
M.ESc. Industrial Ecology, Yale University
M.B.A. Business Administration, Cornell University
B.ChE. Chemical Engineering, University of Minnesota
Affiliations and Memberships*
International Round Table on Materials Criticality - Member (2019-2022)
MinFuture - Advisory board (2017-2018)
Phytocat - Member (2013-2015)
Criticality of Metals (Yale University) - Member (2009-2015)
Honors and Awards
Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (2017 PECASE, awarded in 2019) - "the highest honor bestowed by the United States Government to outstanding scientists and engineers".
First Runner-up, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Top paper by junior author (2015)
International Precious Metals Institute Award (2010)
Abstracts and Presentations
"Characterizing and prioritizing critical mineral supply chain risks and potential abatement strategies" Critical minerals: From discovery to supply chain. Online workshop organized by British Columbia Geological Survey, Geological Survey of Canada, Geoscience Australia, United States Geological Survey, Geological Association of Canada, November 16, 2021 (invited keynote).
"Identifying and prioritizing mineral commodities critical to the U.S. economy andnational security." Filling in the gap: The role of multiphysics to understand geological and mineral systems, part 1. Society of Exploration Geophysicists(SEG) Annual Meeting, September 30, 2021 (invited).
"Geospatially resolving mineral commodity supply chains." Collaborative workflow for geospatial knowledge in the logistics and supply chain landscape. Geospatial World, September 9, 2021 (invited).
"Assessing the resliency of mineral commodity supply chains." NSF NationalWorkshop: Resilient Supply of Critical Minerals, Missouri University of Science & Technology, August 3, 2021 (invited).
"Mineral supply chains critical for energy technologies and the U.S. economy." Earth Resources for the Energy Transition, webinar series hosted by the Committee on Earth Resources, The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, April 26, 2021 (invited).
"Mineral supply chain risks for the U.S. economy." U.S. Forest Service - Geology and minerals webinar series, April 7, 2021 (invited).
"High demand, uncertain supply: critical minerals in renewable energy and emerging technologies." Center For Energy Policy And Management, Washington And Jefferson College, March 9, 2021 (invited).
"Great power competition for critical mineral commodities that enable moderntechnology." Seminar for The Eisenhower School, National Defense University, March 4, 2021 (invited).
"Elemental sustainability: analyses and metrics." Circular Economy in the High-Tech World, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) virtual workshop, January 27, 2021 (invited).
"New methodologies for evaluating critical mineral supply risks." Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative virtual lecture series, Geoscience Australia, Geological Survey of Canada, & U.S. Geological Survey, January 21, 2021 (invited).
"Assessing the mineral commodity supply risk for the U.S. economy and national security." Yale University's School of the Environment, ENV 884a/ENAS 645b:Industrial Ecology guest lecture and panel, November 9, 2020 (invited).
"Critical mineral commodity supply risk for the United States." CMC Conference 2020, October 21, 2020 (invited).
"Great power competition for critical minerals." National War College, Econ. 6950,virtual guest lecture, August 25, 2020 (invited).
"Evaluating mineral commodity supply chains." Mining and Metallurgical Society of America webinar, August 19, 2020 (invited).
U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Hearing on the Impacts of COVID-19 on Mineral Supply Chains, Washington, D.C., June 24, 2020 (invited).
"Managing Critical Mineral Supply Chain Risks " Institute of the Americas and the Colorado School of Mines' Payne Institute for Public Policy - Critical Minerals and the Energy Transitions Webinar Series, May 7, 2020 (invited).
"Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector. "Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration - D.C. Section, March 11, 2020 (invited).
"Critical mineral assessment methods." Seminar for The Eisenhower School, National Defense University, March 6, 2020.
"Critical mineral supply chains: risks and opportunities." Séminaire Ressources Minérales et Economie Circulaire, BRGM, Orléans, France, November 22, 2019 (invited).
"Assessing the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector." 3rd EU Critical Raw Materials Week, Brussels, Belgium: November 18, 2019 (invited keynote).
"Mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector." Joint stockpile meeting. Public Procurement Service, Seoul, Korea: July 30, 2019.
"Assessing the risk of global copper supply disruption from earthquakes." U.S. Geological Survey Risk Community of Practice, Golden, CO: July 18, 2019.
"Evaluating the supply risk of minerals critical to the U.S. manufacturing sector." U.S. Department of State - Bureau of Energy Resources, Washington, D.C.: June 28, 2019 (invited).
"Evaluating the mineral supply risk for U.S. manufacturers." Roundtable session on future metal markets and possible implications in our client countries. The World Bank Group – Energy & Extractives Unit, Washington, D.C.: May 30, 2019 (invited).
"Evaluating mineral supply risk for U.S. manufacturers." U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Resources Program Science Forum, Golden, CO: May 14, 2019.
"Supply of and demand for mineral commodities of importance to Greenland." Greenland Ministry of Mineral Resources and Labour, Nuuk, Greenland: May 1,2019 (invited).
Panel participant at "Minerals for Climate Action: How to Supply Clean Minerals for EVs? " The World Bank Group – Energy & Extractives Unit, Washington, D.C.:March 6, 2019 (invited).
"Assessing mineral criticality and associated supply risk mitigation strategies." U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resource Assessment training, Lakewood, CO: October 23, 2018.
“Evaluating critical minerals and the strategies that can mitigate their supply risk." Missouri University of Science & Technology, Rolla, MO: September 24, 2018 (invited).
“Demand and supply potential for tellurium." Workshop on tellurium and selenium: geological concentration, industrial recovery, and future supplies. Co-hosted by U.S. Geological Survey and UK NERC-funded project (TeaSe: tellurium and seleniumcycling and supply). Keystone, CO: September 21, 2018
(invited)."Assessing critical minerals and associated mitigation strategies." U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C.: September 10, 2018 (invited).
“Early-warning screening for critical minerals: 2016-present” International RoundTable on Materials Criticality, Resources For Future Generations 2018, Vancouver, B.C., Canada: June 16-21, 2018.
“Impact of global trends on metal supply and demand” Technology Disruption in the Mining Sector, The World Bank Group – Energy & Extractives Unit, Washington, D.C.: June 11, 2018 (invited).
Science and Products
Yale stocks and flows database (YSTAFDB) describing anthropogenic materials cycles, recycling, and criticality for 102 materials on spatial scales ranging from suburbs to global and timescales from the early 1800s to circa 2017
Rock-to-metal ratios of the rare earth elements
Mapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States
Dynamic material flow analysis of tantalum in the United States from 2002 to 2020
Embedded critical material flow: The case of niobium, the United States, and China
Streamlined approach for assessing embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt in the United States
A model to assess industry vulnerability to disruptions in mineral commodity supplies
Examining industry vulnerability: A focus on mineral commodities used in the automotive and electronics industries
Global tellurium supply potential from electrolytic copper refining
USGS Critical Minerals Review: 2021
Rock-to-metal ratio: A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes
Assessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc
Methodology and technical input for the 2021 review and revision of the U.S. Critical Minerals List
Science and Products
- Data
Yale stocks and flows database (YSTAFDB) describing anthropogenic materials cycles, recycling, and criticality for 102 materials on spatial scales ranging from suburbs to global and timescales from the early 1800s to circa 2017
This data release presents the Yale stocks and flows database (YSTAFDB). Its data describe the use of 102 materials from the early 1800s to circa 2017 through anthropogenic cycles, their recycling and criticality properties, and on spatial scales ranging from suburbs to global. This data collection was previously scattered across multiple non-uniformly formatted files such as journal papers, repor - Publications
Filter Total Items: 25
Rock-to-metal ratios of the rare earth elements
The relative quantities of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden) removed to produce the rare earth elements—their rock-to-metal ratios—were calculated for 21 individual operations or regions covering nearly all mine production in 2018. The results indicate that the rock-to-metal ratios for the total rare earth elements ranged from a low of 1.6 × 101 to a high of 3.6 × 103, with operations inAuthorsNedal T. Nassar, Graham W. Lederer, Abraham De Jesus Padilla, Joseph Gambogi, Daniel James Cordier, Jaime L. Brainard, Joseph D. Lessard, Ryan CharabMapping first to final uses for rare earth elements, globally and in the United States
Estimating the material flows of rare earth elements (REEs) is essential to understanding which industries are most vulnerable to potential REE supply disruptions which, in turn, may inform policy recommendations aimed at reducing the supply risk. However, the REEs are a group of mineral commodities characterized by highly uncertain estimates of supply and demand due to the REE market's complexityAuthorsElisa Alonso, David G. Pineault, Joseph Gambogi, Nedal T. NassarDynamic material flow analysis of tantalum in the United States from 2002 to 2020
Tantalum has received considerable attention due to risks associated with its supply chain. In 2020 ∼70% of global tantalum supply originated in Africa, with 40% produced in the Democratic Republic of Congo alone. The United States has relied entirely on imports since the 1950s. However, quantifying total domestic consumption is problematic because refined tantalum compounds do not have unique tarAuthorsAbraham De Jesus Padilla, Nedal T. NassarEmbedded critical material flow: The case of niobium, the United States, and China
Niobium, often classified as critical, is typically embedded within steels essential for infrastructure and transportation. Most niobium-consuming countries are import-dependent on primary stage niobium, meaning traditional material flow analysis, which often excludes critical commodities embedded within products of large-scale industries, would miss important flows in the fabrication and manufactAuthorsDalton Miles Mccaffrey, Nedal T. Nassar, Simon M. Jowitt, Abraham De Jesus Padilla, Laurence R. BirdStreamlined approach for assessing embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt in the United States
In today's complex global supply chains, time and data intensive analyses are required to understand global flows of mineral commodities from mine to consumer, particularly for mineral commodities in products (electronics, automobiles, etc.) that contain multiple parts with many mineral commodities. National and regional analyses require additional time and data to incorporate international tradeAuthorsElisa Alonso, David G. Pineault, Nedal T. NassarA model to assess industry vulnerability to disruptions in mineral commodity supplies
Mineral commodity supply disruptions have the potential to ripple through and impact the economy in many ways. Industrial vulnerability is a crucial component of mineral commodity criticality tools as it provides guidance on the economic importance of these commodities to regional criticality indices. Using an economic model that links mineral commodity end-use data to input-output tables and a liAuthorsRoss Manley, Elisa Alonso, Nedal T. NassarExamining industry vulnerability: A focus on mineral commodities used in the automotive and electronics industries
Automotive manufacturing is material-intensive and dependent on a broad range of mineral commodities. Moreover, the automotive manufacturing industries are reliant on complex and sometimes opaque multi-tiered global supply chains. Among the many industries on which automotive supply chains depend are the electronics and semiconductor industries, which are themselves material-intensive and reliantAuthorsRoss Manley, Elisa Alonso, Nedal T. NassarGlobal tellurium supply potential from electrolytic copper refining
The transition towards renewable energy requires increasing quantities of nonfuel mineral commodities, including tellurium used in certain photovoltaics. While demand for tellurium may increase markedly, the potential to increase tellurium supply is not well-understood. In this analysis, we estimate the quantity of tellurium contained in anode slimes generated by electrolytic copper refining by coAuthorsNedal T. Nassar, Haeyeon Kim, Max Frenzel, Michael S. Moats, Sarah M. HayesUSGS Critical Minerals Review: 2021
In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continued to play a central role in understanding and anticipating potential supply chain disruptions by defining and quantitatively evaluating mineral criticality. In addition, the USGS continued to evaluate new sources of domestic critical minerals by conducting mineral resource assessments, mapping and surveying regions prospective for critical mineraAuthorsSteven M. Fortier, Nedal T. Nassar, Garth E. Graham, Jane M. Hammarstrom, Warren C. Day, Jeffrey L. Mauk, Robert R. SealRock-to-metal ratio: A foundational metric for understanding mine wastes
The quantity of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden or barren rock) removed to produce a refined unit of a mineral commodity, its rock-to-metal ratio (RMR), is an important metric for understanding mine wastes and environmental burdens. In this analysis, we provide a comprehensive examination of RMRs for 25 commodities for 2018. The results indicate significant variability across commoditieAuthorsNedal T. Nassar, Graham W. Lederer, Jaime L. Brainard, Abraham De Jesus Padilla, Joseph D. LessardAssessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc
Increasing demand for nonfuel mineral commodities has increased concerns regarding the reliability of their supplies. “Criticality” assessments over the past decade have attempted to capture this concern through a set of indicators, the most common of which quantifies the risk associated with market concentration by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to the world production of a given cAuthorsChristine L. Thomas, Nedal T. Nassar, John H. DeYoungMethodology and technical input for the 2021 review and revision of the U.S. Critical Minerals List
Pursuant to Section 7002 (“Mineral Security”) of Title VII (“Critical Minerals”) of the Energy Act of 2020 (Public Law 116–260, December 27, 2020, 116th Cong.), the Secretary of the Interior, acting through the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey, is tasked with reviewing and revising the methodology used to evaluate mineral criticality and the U.S. Critical Minerals List no less than every 3 yAuthorsNedal T. Nassar, Steven M. Fortier - News
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government