Paul Christopher Damian Milly (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 31
The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies
In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been...
Authors
M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. M. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. J. Donner, J. P. Dunne, Krista A. Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. T. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. M. Harris, L. W. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. R. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, Sergey Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. R. Wilson, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang
On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature
Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E)...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Jonghun Kam, Krista A. Dunne
Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction
Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made...
Authors
Sarah B. Kapnick, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas L. Delworth, Rich Gudgel, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Steven A. Margulis
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Martin B. Goldhaber, Julio L. Betancourt, Jill S. Baron, Sky Bristol, Mary Cantrill, Paul E. Exter, Michael J. Focazio, John W. Haines, Lauren E. Hay, Leslie Hsu, Victor F. Labson, Kevin D. Lafferty, K. A. Ludwig, Paul C. D. Milly, Toni L. Morelli, Suzette A. Morman, Nedal T. Nassar, Timothy R. Newman, Andrea C. Ostroff, Jordan S. Read, Sasha C. Reed, Carl D. Shapiro, Richard A. Smith, Ward E. Sanford, Terry L. Sohl, Edward G. Stets, Adam J. Terando, Donald E. Tillitt, Michael A. Tischler, Patricia L. Toccalino, David J. Wald, Mark P. Waldrop, Anne Wein, Jake F. Weltzin, Christian E. Zimmerman
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming
Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Justin Sheffield, Paul C.D. Milly
Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk...
Authors
Z. W. Kundzewicz, V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, Paul C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P.P.J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, H.-J. Schellnhuber
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 31
The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies
In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been...
Authors
M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. M. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. J. Donner, J. P. Dunne, Krista A. Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. T. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. M. Harris, L. W. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. R. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, Sergey Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. R. Wilson, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang
On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature
Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E)...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Jonghun Kam, Krista A. Dunne
Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction
Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made...
Authors
Sarah B. Kapnick, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas L. Delworth, Rich Gudgel, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Steven A. Margulis
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Martin B. Goldhaber, Julio L. Betancourt, Jill S. Baron, Sky Bristol, Mary Cantrill, Paul E. Exter, Michael J. Focazio, John W. Haines, Lauren E. Hay, Leslie Hsu, Victor F. Labson, Kevin D. Lafferty, K. A. Ludwig, Paul C. D. Milly, Toni L. Morelli, Suzette A. Morman, Nedal T. Nassar, Timothy R. Newman, Andrea C. Ostroff, Jordan S. Read, Sasha C. Reed, Carl D. Shapiro, Richard A. Smith, Ward E. Sanford, Terry L. Sohl, Edward G. Stets, Adam J. Terando, Donald E. Tillitt, Michael A. Tischler, Patricia L. Toccalino, David J. Wald, Mark P. Waldrop, Anne Wein, Jake F. Weltzin, Christian E. Zimmerman
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming
Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Justin Sheffield, Paul C.D. Milly
Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk...
Authors
Z. W. Kundzewicz, V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, Paul C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P.P.J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, H.-J. Schellnhuber