Sean Vitousek
Research Oceanographer, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 52
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here...
Authors
Jennifer Montaño, Giovanni Coco, Jose Antolinez, Tomas Beuzen, Karin R. Bryan, Laura Cagigal, Bruno Castelle, Mark Davidson, Evan B. Goldstein, Raimundo Ibaceta, Déborah Idier, Bonnie C. Ludka, Sina Masoud-Ansari, Fernando Mendez, A. Brad Murray, Nathaniel G. Plant, Katherine Ratlif, Arthur Robinet, Ana Rueda, Nadia Sénéchal, Joshua Simmons, Kristen Splinter, Scott Stephens, Ian Townend, Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones
Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy C. Foxgrover
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to...
Authors
Patrick W. Limber, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal...
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Jonathan A. Warrick, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber
Can beaches survive climate change? Can beaches survive climate change?
Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles H. Fletcher, Neil Frazer, Li H. Erikson, Curt D. Storlazzi
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Li H. Erikson, Blake Cole
Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation
To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Andrew D. Short, Mitchell D. Harley, Kristen D. Splinter, Sean Vitousek, Ian L. Turner, Jonathan Allan, Masayuki Banno, Karin R. Bryan, Andre Doria, Jeff E. Hansen, Shigeru Kato, Yoshiaki Kuriyama, Evan Randall-Goodwin, Peter Ruggiero, Ian J. Walker, Derek K. Heathfield
A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change
We present the formulation, validation, and application of a nonlinear, implicit one-line model to simulate long-term (decadal and longer) shoreline change. The purpose of the implicit numerical method presented here is to allow large time steps without sacrificing model stability compared to explicit approaches, and thereby improve computational efficiency. The model uses a Jacobian...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard
Filter Total Items: 22
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 52
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here...
Authors
Jennifer Montaño, Giovanni Coco, Jose Antolinez, Tomas Beuzen, Karin R. Bryan, Laura Cagigal, Bruno Castelle, Mark Davidson, Evan B. Goldstein, Raimundo Ibaceta, Déborah Idier, Bonnie C. Ludka, Sina Masoud-Ansari, Fernando Mendez, A. Brad Murray, Nathaniel G. Plant, Katherine Ratlif, Arthur Robinet, Ana Rueda, Nadia Sénéchal, Joshua Simmons, Kristen Splinter, Scott Stephens, Ian Townend, Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones
Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy C. Foxgrover
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to...
Authors
Patrick W. Limber, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal...
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Jonathan A. Warrick, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica Lovering
Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber
Can beaches survive climate change? Can beaches survive climate change?
Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber
Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles H. Fletcher, Neil Frazer, Li H. Erikson, Curt D. Storlazzi
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Li H. Erikson, Blake Cole
Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation
To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Andrew D. Short, Mitchell D. Harley, Kristen D. Splinter, Sean Vitousek, Ian L. Turner, Jonathan Allan, Masayuki Banno, Karin R. Bryan, Andre Doria, Jeff E. Hansen, Shigeru Kato, Yoshiaki Kuriyama, Evan Randall-Goodwin, Peter Ruggiero, Ian J. Walker, Derek K. Heathfield
A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change
We present the formulation, validation, and application of a nonlinear, implicit one-line model to simulate long-term (decadal and longer) shoreline change. The purpose of the implicit numerical method presented here is to allow large time steps without sacrificing model stability compared to explicit approaches, and thereby improve computational efficiency. The model uses a Jacobian...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard
Filter Total Items: 22