Changing environmental conditions and human activity are causing the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations in Alaska to change, resulting in challenges for wildlife and ecosystem management. For example, sea otter populations have recently experienced profound growth and spread following near extirpation from the maritime fur trade. However, while their recovery is widely considered a conservation success, their return is threatening commercial and subsistence fisheries. Additionally, barred owls are a newcomer to southeast Alaska, following their westward spread across North America, and could be having profound effects on ecosystems and other species (e.g., western screech owl), as has occurred in other regions. Further, mule deer are increasingly being documented in eastern and interior Alaska and may introduce novel diseases, such as chronic wasting disease (CWD), to Alaska’s native ungulates.
Return to Ecosystems
This research aims to model and forecast changes in distribution and abundance of wildlife (re)invading Alaska to better inform monitoring activities and management plans. This also includes coupling spatiotemporal population models with bioeconomic models to inform “economically optimal” management strategies.
Sea otter
The recovery of sea otter populations since the commercial fur trade and Exxon Valdez oil spill have been monitored extensively over recent decades. This has resulted in rich datasets on the changes in distribution and abundance of this keystone predator across much of Alaska. These efforts have proven key to our understanding of how sea otter (re)colonization can affect the structure of nearshore ecosystems and availability of some resources critically important to subsistence users and commercial fisheries. Further, ongoing sea otter monitoring provides information on population distribution and abundance that is used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce stock assessment reports (SARs), which are mandated by the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA).
New statistical methods allow combining multiple types of data in single statistical models to improve inference about population dynamics that can inform management. An aim of this work is to develop integrated data models for each of the three distinct sea otter stocks in Alaska—Southeast, Southcentral, and Southwest. Further, consistent with Joint Secretarial Order 3403, aspects of these models will be co-designed with Tribal, federal, and state partners and will inform co-design of agency and tribally led survey efforts, all with the goal of continually improving our understanding of sea otter population ecology and informing responsible management. For the Southcentral stock, this work is being carried out through the Chugach Imaq Research Collaborative.
A major challenge to managing sea otter populations is their economic impact. Sea otters are harvested by local Indigenous hunters for their fur to make and sell traditional handicrafts. However, sea otters can also have devastating impacts to both subsistence and commercial shellfish resources, which has consequences for the food security of local communities. Further, sea otters provide economic value through ecosystem services and the tourism industry.
This complicated web of factors begs the question: How do we optimally manage sea otters? Bioeconomic modeling is a tool that can help answer that question. Through collaboration with the USGS Fort Collins Science Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Tlingit and Haida Tribes, work is ongoing to develop bioeconomic models to better inform management of sea otters in Southeast Alaska.
Barred owl
Facilitated by changing habitat conditions in the west, Barred owls began spreading westward from their natural range in the eastern US in the late 1800s and were first documented in Southeast Alaska in the 1970s. They have since continued to colonize Southeast Alaska and spread northward in British Columbia and the Yukon. There is growing concern that they may have detrimental effects on the ecosystems and conspecifics, such as the western screech owl, they interact with in these newly colonized areas, as has occurred elsewhere.
Barred owls were recently classified as an invasive species in western North America as part of the US Fish and Wildlife Service Barred Owl Management Strategy. The Alaska Landbird Conservation Plan recommends that Barred owls should be monitored for changing distribution and abundance, as well as effects on small owls. This project aims to gather existing data and use mechanistic spatiotemporal statistical models to forecast changes in distribution and abundance of barred owls in Alaska to learn about their invasion ecology at northern latitudes and inform a monitoring strategy.
Mule deer
Mule deer, along with white-tailed deer and elk, have been spreading north from their core range in the southern half of North America for decades. Mule deer have been well established in the southern Yukon since the late 1900s and occasionally reported in Interior Alaska since the 1970s. This range expansion has likely been driven by changes in environmental conditions, both human-caused and natural.
Mule deer can carry a number of pathogens and parasites. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious disease that is fatal to cervids and is spreading in North America, and winter tick is a skin parasite that can cause hair loss and mortality, particularly in moose. While these conditions have yet to be detected in Alaska, mule deer are a common carrier of both and are thus a likely vector to introduce them to ungulates in Alaska. In contrast to ungulate management in the conterminous US, where management is primarily concerned with recreational opportunities, ungulates are managed for both recreation and subsistence in Alaska. So, CWD and winter tick will present unique management challenges to ensure food security for communities and Tribes in remote parts of the state.
This project aims to use existing data on mule deer populations in the Yukon and observations in Alaska paired with mechanistic spatiotemporal statistical models to forecast the spread of mule deer into Alaska. Primary goals include estimating the timing of population establishment in Alaska and identifying likely zones of contact between colonizing mule deer and resident ungulates, such as moose and caribou. Subsequent goals include forecasting the spread of CWD and winter tick within the expanding mule deer population and optimizing a monitoring strategy in Alaska.
Ecosystems Analytics
Chugach Imaq Research Collaborative
Changing environmental conditions and human activity are causing the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations in Alaska to change, resulting in challenges for wildlife and ecosystem management. For example, sea otter populations have recently experienced profound growth and spread following near extirpation from the maritime fur trade. However, while their recovery is widely considered a conservation success, their return is threatening commercial and subsistence fisheries. Additionally, barred owls are a newcomer to southeast Alaska, following their westward spread across North America, and could be having profound effects on ecosystems and other species (e.g., western screech owl), as has occurred in other regions. Further, mule deer are increasingly being documented in eastern and interior Alaska and may introduce novel diseases, such as chronic wasting disease (CWD), to Alaska’s native ungulates.
Return to Ecosystems
This research aims to model and forecast changes in distribution and abundance of wildlife (re)invading Alaska to better inform monitoring activities and management plans. This also includes coupling spatiotemporal population models with bioeconomic models to inform “economically optimal” management strategies.
Sea otter
The recovery of sea otter populations since the commercial fur trade and Exxon Valdez oil spill have been monitored extensively over recent decades. This has resulted in rich datasets on the changes in distribution and abundance of this keystone predator across much of Alaska. These efforts have proven key to our understanding of how sea otter (re)colonization can affect the structure of nearshore ecosystems and availability of some resources critically important to subsistence users and commercial fisheries. Further, ongoing sea otter monitoring provides information on population distribution and abundance that is used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce stock assessment reports (SARs), which are mandated by the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA).
New statistical methods allow combining multiple types of data in single statistical models to improve inference about population dynamics that can inform management. An aim of this work is to develop integrated data models for each of the three distinct sea otter stocks in Alaska—Southeast, Southcentral, and Southwest. Further, consistent with Joint Secretarial Order 3403, aspects of these models will be co-designed with Tribal, federal, and state partners and will inform co-design of agency and tribally led survey efforts, all with the goal of continually improving our understanding of sea otter population ecology and informing responsible management. For the Southcentral stock, this work is being carried out through the Chugach Imaq Research Collaborative.
A major challenge to managing sea otter populations is their economic impact. Sea otters are harvested by local Indigenous hunters for their fur to make and sell traditional handicrafts. However, sea otters can also have devastating impacts to both subsistence and commercial shellfish resources, which has consequences for the food security of local communities. Further, sea otters provide economic value through ecosystem services and the tourism industry.
This complicated web of factors begs the question: How do we optimally manage sea otters? Bioeconomic modeling is a tool that can help answer that question. Through collaboration with the USGS Fort Collins Science Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Tlingit and Haida Tribes, work is ongoing to develop bioeconomic models to better inform management of sea otters in Southeast Alaska.
Barred owl
Facilitated by changing habitat conditions in the west, Barred owls began spreading westward from their natural range in the eastern US in the late 1800s and were first documented in Southeast Alaska in the 1970s. They have since continued to colonize Southeast Alaska and spread northward in British Columbia and the Yukon. There is growing concern that they may have detrimental effects on the ecosystems and conspecifics, such as the western screech owl, they interact with in these newly colonized areas, as has occurred elsewhere.
Barred owls were recently classified as an invasive species in western North America as part of the US Fish and Wildlife Service Barred Owl Management Strategy. The Alaska Landbird Conservation Plan recommends that Barred owls should be monitored for changing distribution and abundance, as well as effects on small owls. This project aims to gather existing data and use mechanistic spatiotemporal statistical models to forecast changes in distribution and abundance of barred owls in Alaska to learn about their invasion ecology at northern latitudes and inform a monitoring strategy.
Mule deer
Mule deer, along with white-tailed deer and elk, have been spreading north from their core range in the southern half of North America for decades. Mule deer have been well established in the southern Yukon since the late 1900s and occasionally reported in Interior Alaska since the 1970s. This range expansion has likely been driven by changes in environmental conditions, both human-caused and natural.
Mule deer can carry a number of pathogens and parasites. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an infectious disease that is fatal to cervids and is spreading in North America, and winter tick is a skin parasite that can cause hair loss and mortality, particularly in moose. While these conditions have yet to be detected in Alaska, mule deer are a common carrier of both and are thus a likely vector to introduce them to ungulates in Alaska. In contrast to ungulate management in the conterminous US, where management is primarily concerned with recreational opportunities, ungulates are managed for both recreation and subsistence in Alaska. So, CWD and winter tick will present unique management challenges to ensure food security for communities and Tribes in remote parts of the state.
This project aims to use existing data on mule deer populations in the Yukon and observations in Alaska paired with mechanistic spatiotemporal statistical models to forecast the spread of mule deer into Alaska. Primary goals include estimating the timing of population establishment in Alaska and identifying likely zones of contact between colonizing mule deer and resident ungulates, such as moose and caribou. Subsequent goals include forecasting the spread of CWD and winter tick within the expanding mule deer population and optimizing a monitoring strategy in Alaska.