"THAT CHILL IN THE EGG AISLE isn’t just refrigeration. Grocery runs these days can feel a bit Soviet, with signs announcing carton rationing and apologizing for low stock. Even Waffle House—known for holding the line on prices—added a 50-cent surcharge to egg dishes.

The once-affordable source of protein has become scarce for one reason: the latest strain of avian influenza, H5N1, a highly contagious and fatal virus. Over 168 million birds have either died of the virus or been culled over the last three years. Most of those were egg-laying hens, which drove the average price of eggs up more than 60% by the end of 2024, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicting a 50% spike in 2025.

The disease is spreading rapidly through wild birds, decimating waterfowl and even killing our national bird, the bald eagle. Alarmingly, it’s jumped to mammals as well. Cats are particularly susceptible, including pets, wildlife and zoo animals like lions and tigers; dairy cattle are a new host, putting at risk another grocery staple, milk. . .

Now she and postdoctoral researcher Matthew Gonnerman, in collaboration with Diann Prosser Ph.D. '12 of the U.S. Geological Survey, have developed a model incorporating waterfowl habitats, environmental factors like waterways and topography, the prevalence of disease in different avian species, as well as farm locations and biosecurity measures. Once they publish their data, they’ll release their models for broader use, tailored for state and federal agencies as well as commercial and backyard farmers, who can use the results to prepare for oncoming waves of the virus. . ."