Evaluation of downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) output for current conditions and associated error in simulated runoff for CONUS

This project will assess the accuracy of climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) from different sources for current and future conditions.  The impact of these drivers on hydrologic response will be using the monthly water balance model (MWBM).  The methodology for processing and analysis of these datasets will be automated for when new climate datasets become available on the USGS Geo Data Portal (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/ - content no longer available).  This will ensure continued relevancy of project results, future opportunities for research and assessment of potential climate change impacts on hydrologic resources, and comparison between generations of climate data. To share and distribute the results with scientists and environmental resource managers, project-related data will be hosted with collaborators using a customized web portal developed by USGS ScienceBase (http://www.fort.usgs.gov/WebApps/SciBase.asp - content no longer available). 

Principal Investigator : Andy Bock, Lauren E Hay
Cooperator/Partner : Gail A Montgomery, Tim Kern, Roland Viger, Gregory J McCabe

Benefits:

In addition to benefits listed in the description of how the project supports the CDI SSF:

• The accuracy of climate data made available from the GDP, and subsequent MWBM output, for historical and future conditions, will be evaluated on modeling units we refer to as the GeoSpatial Fabric (GF). The GF is a spatial discretization of the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on the NHDPlus feature set ( http://www.horizon-systems.com/nhdplus/).  This allows results to be summarized both locally and for specific real-world hydrographic features, such as USGS streamgages, and major waterbody outlets and river confluences.
• The web portal will provide scientists and resource managers with needed information to choose the appropriate data set with associated uncertainties for their region of application.
• Deliverables can be customized for specific applications or research targets defined by research partners such as USGS Climate Science Centers and Regional Landscape Cooperatives

Deliverables :

• Data Products and Web Services:
  • Climate data summarized for the GeoSpatial Fabric for CONUS
    • PRISM, DAYMET, GSD(Maurer), and BCSD for CMIP3 and CMIP5 (>200 GCMs)
  • Metrics describing uncertainty associated with climate drivers
    • New  post doc through Powell Center (Kirsti Hakala) is working on metrics
  • Web Portal using an interactive Web mapping service to display and distribute results
    • Prototype for SC CSC in progress. Currently working with FORT web applications team to reskin for the nation
• Publications & Presentations:
  • Hay, L. E., LaFontaine, J.H., and Markstrom, 2014, Evaluation of Statistically Downscaled GCM Output as Input for Hydrological and Stream Temperature Simulation in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (1961-1999): Earth Interactions, 18(9). 
  • Journal Paper for MWBM parameter regionalization used with CONUS application in progress.
  • USGS Fact sheet for using the Web Portal (see link below).
  • CDI presentation on Sept 10, 2014.
  • AGU presentation on MWBM portal in Fall 2014 ("Monthly Water Balance Model Portal for the United States", Hay et al., http://abstractsearch.agu.org/meetings/2014/FM/H43I-1077.html - content no longer available).

Note: this description is from the FY13 Annual Report