Publications

Analytical results for parameters, such as static stress drop, for stick-slip friction experiments, with arbitrary input parameters, can be determined by solving an energy-balance equation. These results can then be related to a given earthquake based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone, assuming that the rupture process entails the same physics as stick...

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models...

A series of near‐surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) main hole were recorded by high‐frequency downhole receiver arrays in April 2005. These seismic recordings at depths ranging from the surface to 2.3 km constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure as well as the first‐order characteristics of the source. Forward...

We studied a serpentinite-bearing fault zone in Gokasho-Arashima Tectonic Line, Mie Prefecture, central Japan, characterizing its internal structures, mineral assemblage, permeability, and frictional properties. The fault core situated between the serpentinite breccia and the adjacent sedimentary rocks is characterized by a zone locally altered to saponite. The clayey gouge layer...

The widely held perception that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is vertical or steeply dipping in most places in southern California may not be correct. From studies of potential‐field data, active‐source imaging, and seismicity, the dip of the SAF is significantly nonvertical in many locations. The direction of dip appears to change in a systematic way through the Transverse Ranges...

U.S. national building codes refer to the ASCE/SEI-7 provisions for selecting and scaling ground motions for use in nonlinear response history analysis of structures. Because the limiting values for the number of records in the ASCE/SEI-7 are based on engineering experience, this study examines the required number of records statistically, such that the scaled records provide accurate...

Strong-motion data of engineering and scientific importance from the United States and other seismically active countries are served through the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at www.strongmotioncenter.org. Recently, the CESMD staff, with cooperation from colleagues at international strong-motion seismic networks, has disseminated strong-motion data from significant...

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of...

Synthetic seismicity simulations have been explored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group in order to guide long‐term forecasting efforts related to the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (Tullis et al., 2012a). In this study I describe the viscoelastic earthquake simulator (ViscoSim) of Pollitz, 2009. Recapitulating to a large extent...

The 11 March 2011 M 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake generated significant long-duration shaking that propagated hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter and affected urban areas throughout much of Honshu. Recorded responses of a tall building at 770 km from the epicenter of the mainshock and other related or unrelated events show how structures sensitive to long-period motions can be...

The propagation of the rupture of the Mw7.9 Denali fault earthquake from the central Denali fault onto the Totschunda fault has provided a basis for dynamic models of fault branching in which the angle of the regional or local prestress relative to the orientation of the main fault and branch plays a principal role in determining which fault branch is taken. GeoEarthScope LiDAR and...

A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The...