Avian Influenza Dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay Region
USGS is investigating factors that influence the risk of avian influenza transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry within the Chesapeake Bay region, a hub of poultry production for the United States.
What is the issue?
Although avian influenza presents a global threat, the mechanisms for transmission across the wild bird – domestic poultry interface differ based upon region, agricultural practices, wild bird distributions, species susceptibility, and other risk factors.
What is at stake?
As of May 1, 2026, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have been detected in approximately 206 million poultry across 51 U.S. jurisdictions. The 2022-2025 U.S. outbreak alone resulted in over 40 million animal losses and \$2.5–$3 billion in economic damages. Agricultural operations within the Chesapeake Bay watershed support more than 83,000 farms that contribute over \$10B annually and poultry farming is one of the most important industries in the region. Due to the value of the poultry industry to the Chesapeake Bay region, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of HPAI transmission risk would aid disease monitoring and biosecurity efforts.
What is our approach?
USGS has several ongoing studies to help understand the factors driving local transmission risk in the Chesapeake Bay region including the following efforts:
- Monitoring waterfowl use of small water retention ponds closely associated with commercial poultry farms. Understanding what waterfowl species use retention ponds and when they use them helps indicate the risk these waterbodies pose from a disease transmission perspective and may lead to identifying risk mitigation strategies.
- Consolidating various scientific and citizen survey datasets along with available telemetry data. USGS is working with numerous partners to create regionally specific waterfowl distribution models via an integrated species distribution modeling framework. Although models are available that describe distribution based on wide-scale processes, building locally tailored models is an important next step to identifying site-specific disease transmission risk. Learn more.
- Assessing avian influenza virus infection prevalence and antibodies in non-waterfowl bird species. USGS researchers are working with a network of collaborators to better understand avian influenza virus dynamics in an expanded host range following the recent incursion of H5N1 into North America. Learn more.
- Modeling fine scale transmission risk of avian influenza across the Chesapeake Bay region. USGS research will incorporate findings from the studies described above along with site specific agricultural practices and disease characteristics to identify when the risk of HPAI transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry is highest across space and time. Risk estimates will guide farmers on when to ensure biosecurity practices are strongest in order to mitigate outbreak risk and protect agricultural and economic health.
What are the benefits?
With thousands of poultry farms concentrated across the Delmarva Peninsula on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, producers face significant risk‑management challenges as HPAI viruses continue to move from wild birds into domestic flocks. USGS research provides critical science to help identify, monitor, and reduce these transmission risks, supporting efforts to safeguard an industry that is both essential to the U.S. food supply and a major economic driver for the region. By strengthening understanding of when and where risks are highest, this work helps inform practical mitigation strategies that protect poultry operations and the communities that depend on them.
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USGS is investigating factors that influence the risk of avian influenza transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry within the Chesapeake Bay region, a hub of poultry production for the United States.
What is the issue?
Although avian influenza presents a global threat, the mechanisms for transmission across the wild bird – domestic poultry interface differ based upon region, agricultural practices, wild bird distributions, species susceptibility, and other risk factors.
What is at stake?
As of May 1, 2026, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have been detected in approximately 206 million poultry across 51 U.S. jurisdictions. The 2022-2025 U.S. outbreak alone resulted in over 40 million animal losses and \$2.5–$3 billion in economic damages. Agricultural operations within the Chesapeake Bay watershed support more than 83,000 farms that contribute over \$10B annually and poultry farming is one of the most important industries in the region. Due to the value of the poultry industry to the Chesapeake Bay region, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of HPAI transmission risk would aid disease monitoring and biosecurity efforts.
What is our approach?
USGS has several ongoing studies to help understand the factors driving local transmission risk in the Chesapeake Bay region including the following efforts:
- Monitoring waterfowl use of small water retention ponds closely associated with commercial poultry farms. Understanding what waterfowl species use retention ponds and when they use them helps indicate the risk these waterbodies pose from a disease transmission perspective and may lead to identifying risk mitigation strategies.
- Consolidating various scientific and citizen survey datasets along with available telemetry data. USGS is working with numerous partners to create regionally specific waterfowl distribution models via an integrated species distribution modeling framework. Although models are available that describe distribution based on wide-scale processes, building locally tailored models is an important next step to identifying site-specific disease transmission risk. Learn more.
- Assessing avian influenza virus infection prevalence and antibodies in non-waterfowl bird species. USGS researchers are working with a network of collaborators to better understand avian influenza virus dynamics in an expanded host range following the recent incursion of H5N1 into North America. Learn more.
- Modeling fine scale transmission risk of avian influenza across the Chesapeake Bay region. USGS research will incorporate findings from the studies described above along with site specific agricultural practices and disease characteristics to identify when the risk of HPAI transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry is highest across space and time. Risk estimates will guide farmers on when to ensure biosecurity practices are strongest in order to mitigate outbreak risk and protect agricultural and economic health.
What are the benefits?
With thousands of poultry farms concentrated across the Delmarva Peninsula on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay, producers face significant risk‑management challenges as HPAI viruses continue to move from wild birds into domestic flocks. USGS research provides critical science to help identify, monitor, and reduce these transmission risks, supporting efforts to safeguard an industry that is both essential to the U.S. food supply and a major economic driver for the region. By strengthening understanding of when and where risks are highest, this work helps inform practical mitigation strategies that protect poultry operations and the communities that depend on them.
<< Back to Avian Influenza Research at EESC