Quantifying the drivers of ecological stability in response to climate change across ecosystems Active
The accelerating impact of climate-driven perturbations have led to unprecedented levels of mass-mortality events worldwide. Given the impacts that these events could have on ecological function and the provisioning of ecosystem services, understanding the mechanisms underpinning ecological stability in response to climate change is among the most urgent conservation challenges of our time.
The accelerating impact of climate-driven perturbations have led to unprecedented levels of mass-mortality events worldwide. Given the impacts that these events could have on ecological function and the provisioning of ecosystem services, understanding the mechanisms underpinning ecological stability in response to climate change is among the most urgent conservation challenges of our time. It has long been assumed that diversity is a primary predictor of ecosystem stability; however, significant spatial and temporal inconsistencies in the diversity-stability relationship have led to debate about that assumption, particularly in the context of climate change. We hypothesize that the interaction between diversity and climate history provides the key for predicting ecosystem stability in response to climate change. Our synthesis group will address this hypothesis by evaluating the interaction between diversity and climate history in predicting ecosystem stability, resistance, and recovery to “climate shocks” (i.e., heatwaves and droughts) using a cutting-edge statistical approach to synthesize long-term datasets across an unprecedented gradient of species richness: from extremely low diversity seagrass beds to high diversity coral reefs and forests. Our analysis will allow us to identify quantitative, generalizable predictions about how diversity and climate history modulate ecosystem stability, resistance, recovery, and make inferences about the ecological mechanisms that underpin ecosystem response to those drivers. Additionally, we plan to apply our predictions to produce a truly global-scale assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to future climate projections. Final products will include a series of high-profile papers, open-source analytical workflows, and public databases.
Principal Investigators:
Lauren Toth (U.S. Geological Survey)
Joan Dudney (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Deron Burkepile (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Nathan Lemoine (Marquette University)
The accelerating impact of climate-driven perturbations have led to unprecedented levels of mass-mortality events worldwide. Given the impacts that these events could have on ecological function and the provisioning of ecosystem services, understanding the mechanisms underpinning ecological stability in response to climate change is among the most urgent conservation challenges of our time.
The accelerating impact of climate-driven perturbations have led to unprecedented levels of mass-mortality events worldwide. Given the impacts that these events could have on ecological function and the provisioning of ecosystem services, understanding the mechanisms underpinning ecological stability in response to climate change is among the most urgent conservation challenges of our time. It has long been assumed that diversity is a primary predictor of ecosystem stability; however, significant spatial and temporal inconsistencies in the diversity-stability relationship have led to debate about that assumption, particularly in the context of climate change. We hypothesize that the interaction between diversity and climate history provides the key for predicting ecosystem stability in response to climate change. Our synthesis group will address this hypothesis by evaluating the interaction between diversity and climate history in predicting ecosystem stability, resistance, and recovery to “climate shocks” (i.e., heatwaves and droughts) using a cutting-edge statistical approach to synthesize long-term datasets across an unprecedented gradient of species richness: from extremely low diversity seagrass beds to high diversity coral reefs and forests. Our analysis will allow us to identify quantitative, generalizable predictions about how diversity and climate history modulate ecosystem stability, resistance, recovery, and make inferences about the ecological mechanisms that underpin ecosystem response to those drivers. Additionally, we plan to apply our predictions to produce a truly global-scale assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to future climate projections. Final products will include a series of high-profile papers, open-source analytical workflows, and public databases.
Principal Investigators:
Lauren Toth (U.S. Geological Survey)
Joan Dudney (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Deron Burkepile (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Nathan Lemoine (Marquette University)