As part of the National Water Budget Project, our objective is to quantify how well observed trends are simulated.
We are evaluating multiple statistical models and one process-based model, in terms of how well the models reproduce measured streamflow at USGS gages across the United States. This includes how accurately models reproduce low through high flows for long periods of record and how well they reproduce trends over time. In addition, we are analyzing the geographic variability of results and how reservoir storage and agricultural irrigation affect modeled flows. This work will help point to basins with flow characteristics that are not being modeled well, and those that are. This may indicate how well different processes are being modeled and point to priorities for model improvement.
Modeled and observed trends in streamflows at managed basins in the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016
Modeled and observed trends at reference basins in the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016
Comparing trends in modeled and observed streamflows at minimally altered basins in the United States
- Overview
As part of the National Water Budget Project, our objective is to quantify how well observed trends are simulated.
We are evaluating multiple statistical models and one process-based model, in terms of how well the models reproduce measured streamflow at USGS gages across the United States. This includes how accurately models reproduce low through high flows for long periods of record and how well they reproduce trends over time. In addition, we are analyzing the geographic variability of results and how reservoir storage and agricultural irrigation affect modeled flows. This work will help point to basins with flow characteristics that are not being modeled well, and those that are. This may indicate how well different processes are being modeled and point to priorities for model improvement.
- Data
Modeled and observed trends in streamflows at managed basins in the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016
This data release contains trend results computed on the basis of modeled and observed daily streamflows at 1,257 gages across the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016. Study gages were selected from the GAGES-II dataset of gages classified as non-reference which means streamflows may be affected by human influence. Modeled daily streamflows were computed using the detModeled and observed trends at reference basins in the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016
This data release contains trend results computed on the basis of modeled and observed daily streamflows at 502 reference gages across the conterminous U.S. from October 1, 1983 through September 30, 2016. Modeled daily streamflows were computed using the deterministic Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and five statistical techniques: Nearest-Neighbor Drainage Area Ratio (NNDAR), Map-Co - Publications
Comparing trends in modeled and observed streamflows at minimally altered basins in the United States
We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984–2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a measure of overall model fit and average bias. A higher percentage of basins, for all models, had relativel