Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Idalia Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Idalia approached the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and then the southeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Prior to landfall on the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula on August 30, 2023, the Coastal Change Hazards Team forecast that 95 percent of beaches were forecast to erode at the dunes’ base, 20 percent of dunes were forecast to be overwashed by storm waves, and 1 percent of dunes were expected to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves. These forecasts were part of a USGS News Release and were highlighted on Bay News 9 in Tampa Bay. These real-time forecasts were ongoing in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer. After landfall of a storm, the Coastal Change Hazards team uses NOAA imagery, USGS CoastCams, other beach cams, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) constructed from post-storm aerial imagery and lidar data, and observations from USGS sensors to validate forecasts. The USGS Coastal Change Forecast model is used to estimate the impacts of elevated waves and storm surge along the coast due to extreme storms. This model has been in use since 2015 and is continually improved.
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