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Kara Doran

Kara Doran is an oceanographer with the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center. Her area of expertise is understanding and forecasting storm impacts to sandy coastlines. 

For the last decade, she has been part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project. Her work in this project includes:

  • Producing real-time forecasts and scenario-based predictions of coastal total water level and geomorphic change during storms
  • Analysis of lidar-derived measures of coastal change

Since 2018 she has acted as the coastal change hazards liaison to the USGS Storm Team and has worked in partnership with other federal agencies such as US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide the nation scientifically rigorous information to assess national vulnerability to coastal change hazards.  

Professional Experience

  • Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal & Marine Geology Science Center, 2010 to present

  • Researcher, Jacobs Technologies contracted to the U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal & Marine Science Center, 2007-2010

Education and Certifications

  • M.S. Marine Science, University of South Florida   

  • B.S. Physics, Grove City College

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 17
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The forec
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The forec
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broken staircase and sand dune

Storm-Induced Coastal Change

Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Storm-Induced Coastal Change

Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.
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Predicted probabilities of dune erosion

Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Dorian
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Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Screenshot: Coastal Change Hazards Portal - Hurricane Dorian - Sept. 5

Real-Time Storm Response

Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Real-Time Storm Response

Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.
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Map with bands overlain showing predicted probabilities of dune erosion, overwash, and inundation for Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Michael
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Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Predicted probabilities of dune erosion from Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Florence
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Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Probabilities of coastal erosion - Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change

Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change

Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.
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Potential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Joaquin - Oct. 4, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Potential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Sandy - Oct. 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Sandy
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Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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tential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Matthew - Oct. 7, 2016

Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Matthew
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Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Photo Highlighting Predicted Erosion and Inundation areas in Texas

Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Harvey
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Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Hurricane Irma-response page intro slide

Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Irma, Hurricanes
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Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Filter Total Items: 25

Coupled ADCIRC+SWAN simulations of Lake Superior with surface ice cover in February 2020

The analyses of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL) historical ice cover data during 1973–2021 indicate that warmer winters with reduced surface ice cover have become more frequent in the last two decades (1995–2021) compared to the previous decades (1973–1995) in the Great Lakes. In the past two decades, for example, years with lower-than-normal ice cover have become more
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Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

SWASH Model Water Level Timeseries at Wrightsville Beach, NC during Hurricane Isaias, August 2020

This data release contains model output of water level elevation time series generated by the Simulating WAves till SHore (SWASH) model to simulate storm-induced water levels from Hurricane Isaias at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina (NC), USA. Water levels were simulated along three different cross-shore profiles over a period of 10 hours around the peak of the storm from 2300 GMT on August 3, 2
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Lidar-derived Beach Volumes and Shoreline Change for New Jersey and New York

This data release defines beach volumes and shoreline change for each 10-meter-wide profile along the New Jersey and New York coastline. The profiles are derived from light detection and ranging (lidar)-digital elevation models (DEMs). These data support the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF)-funded project entitled “Monitoring Hurricane Sandy Beach and Marsh Resilience in New York and N
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Puerto Rico

These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the Puerto Rico open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophistica
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Storm-Induced Overwash Extent

The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data release defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits, determined from aerial photograph analysis, attributed to coastal processes during storm events. Note: This data release was versioned on June 11, 2024. Please see the Suggested Citation section f
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards

These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 1-km section of the United States sandy open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticat
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities, Gulf of Mexico

Coastal Cliff Top and Toe Delineation Derived from Lidar for Puerto Rico: 2018

The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to understand and forecast coastal landscape change. This dataset delineates coastal cliff features (cliff tops, toes, and 3D elevation transects) to assess the hazard posed by eroding coastal cliffs in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. The delineation of cliff tops and toes can be used as an input into cliff hazard metrics and to mea
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Lidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project aims to identify areas of the nation's coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here, organized by individual fiel
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Storm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events

These data sets contain information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) on sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts during real-time peak forecast conditions. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respon
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico

EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Ike, 2008

These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 17th, 2008, following Hurricane Ike landfall.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Rita, 2005

These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 27th and 28th, and October 2nd, 2005, following Hurricane Rita landfall.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

EAARL Coastal Topography-Eastern Louisiana Barrier Islands, 09 March 2008

These datasets, prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center and the National Park Service (NPS), provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of eastern Louisiana. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on March 9, 2008.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on October 9, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 86 percent of beaches along the west coast of the Florida peninsula were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 82 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 75 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Milton, Hurricanes
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on October 9, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 86 percent of beaches along the west coast of the Florida peninsula were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 82 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 75 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Milton, Hurricanes
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows predictions for the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi from Hurricane Francine.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows predictions for the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi from Hurricane Francine.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

Potential coastal change impacts are predicted during a direct landfall of Hurricane Beryl on the Texas coast at 4:00 am, Sunday, July 7, 2024.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricanes
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

Potential coastal change impacts are predicted during a direct landfall of Hurricane Beryl on the Texas coast at 4:00 am, Sunday, July 7, 2024.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricanes
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)
View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia
View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

Prior to landfall on the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula on August 30, 2023, the Coastal Change Hazards Team forecast that 95 percent of beaches were forecast to erode at the dunes’ base, 20 percent of dunes were forecast to be overwashed by storm waves, and 1 percent of dunes were expected to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves. T

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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

Prior to landfall on the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula on August 30, 2023, the Coastal Change Hazards Team forecast that 95 percent of beaches were forecast to erode at the dunes’ base, 20 percent of dunes were forecast to be overwashed by storm waves, and 1 percent of dunes were expected to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves. T

By
St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas
Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina
Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Potential coastal change impacts during a direct landfall of Hurricane Ian as of 11:00 am, Friday, September 30, 2022.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Ian
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Potential coastal change impacts during a direct landfall of Hurricane Ian as of 11:00 am, Friday, September 30, 2022.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Ian
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches
Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team has forecast coast-wide levels of beach erosion, inundation and overwash due to Hurricane Florence's expected path and landgfall.

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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Communications and Publishing, Hurricane Florence
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team has forecast coast-wide levels of beach erosion, inundation and overwash due to Hurricane Florence's expected path and landgfall.

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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Communications and Publishing, Hurricane Florence
Filter Total Items: 29

Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast (TWL&CC Forecast) provides coastal communities with 6-day notice of potential elevated water levels and coastal change (i.e., dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) on sandy beaches that threatens safety, infrastructure, or resources. This continuously operating model provides hourly information for select regions along U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atla
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Justin J. Birchler, Margaret L. Palmsten, Kara S. Doran, Sharifa Karwandyar, Joshua Michael Pardun, Elora M. Oades, Ryan P. Mulligan, Eli Sawyer Whitehead-Zimmers
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Operational forecasts of wave-driven water levels and coastal hazards for US Gulf and Atlantic coasts

Predictions of total water levels, the elevation of combined tides, surge, and wave runup at the shoreline, are necessary to provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding. Despite the importance of early warning systems for these hazards, existing real-time meteorological and oceanographic forecast systems at regional and national scales, until now, have lacked estimates of runup nece
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Hilary F Stockdon, Joseph W. Long, Margaret L. Palmsten, Andre Van der Westhuysen, Kara S. Doran, Richard J. Snell
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico

Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes

The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to
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Erdinc Sogut, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Andrew Ashton, Walter Barnhardt, Kara S. Doran, Margaret L. Palmsten
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal
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James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter Ruggiero
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers

Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, piping
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Sara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika Lentz, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. Sturdivant, Kara S. Doran
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Distinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new nonparametric noise model that is data-dependent and consid
Authors
Yingli Zhu, Gary T. Mitchum, Kara S. Doran, Don P. Chambers, Xinfeng Liang
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change

Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands were breached, and the erosion of beaches and dunes o
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Justin J. Birchler, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Hilary F. Stockdon
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Forecasts of coastal change hazards

Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model is
Authors
Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Joseph Long, Nathaniel G. Plant
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Toward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels

Storm surge and large waves combine to erode beaches, cause marsh and coral decay, and inundate low-elevation areas, resulting in hazards to coastal communities and loss of natural resources. The USGS, in collaboration with NOAA, is developing a real-time system to provide ∼ 6-day forecasts of total water levels (TWLs) combining tides, storm surge, and wave runup. TWL is compared with dune elevati
Authors
Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Li H. Erikson
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Comparing methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program for deriving shoreline position from lidar data

The U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program uses three methods to derive a datum-based, mean high water shoreline on open-ocean coasts from light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation surveys. This work compared the shorelines produced by the three methods for two different surveys: one survey with simple beach morphology, and one survey with complex beach morphology. For the s
Authors
Amy S. Farris, Kathryn M. Weber, Kara S. Doran, Jeffrey H. List
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands

This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have document
Authors
Nathaniel G. Plant, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities, Gulf of Mexico

A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements of beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts of coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. The wave-induced water level component (wave setup and swash) is estimated by using modeled offs
Authors
Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Jacquelyn R. Overbeck
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Filter Total Items: 41
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Milton Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Milton Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Milton approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Helene Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Helene Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Helene approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the aftermath of Helene

USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the aftermath of Helene

To learn more about USGS science related to Hurricane Milton:

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Francine approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Beryl Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Beryl Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Beryl approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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USGS showcased three Coastal Change Hazards tools to natural hazards resilience specialists at the Southeast and Caribbean Disaster Resilience Partnership (SCDRP) Annual Meeting

USGS showcased three Coastal Change Hazards tools to natural hazards resilience specialists at the Southeast and Caribbean Disaster Resilience Partnership (SCDRP) Annual Meeting

Dr. Donya Frank-Gilchrist of the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center attended the SCDRP annual meeting to engage with community leaders...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Idalia Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Idalia Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Idalia approached the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and then the southeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series...

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DYOD (Download Your Own Data): New API available for total water level and coastal change forecasts can aid coastal resilience

DYOD (Download Your Own Data): New API available for total water level and coastal change forecasts can aid coastal resilience

Need coastal forecast data? We've got your back. The USGS and NOAA have provided real-time forecasts of total water levels and coastal change along U...

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Kara Doran invited to speak at the 2023 National Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) Workshop

Kara Doran invited to speak at the 2023 National Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) Workshop

Kara will present USGS Coastal Change Hazards tools for restoration and resiliency to the NRDAR community of practitioners as part of an oral session...

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USGS St. Petersburg Scientists Present to Students for the Annual Great American Teach-In

USGS St. Petersburg Scientists Present to Students for the Annual Great American Teach-In

Four scientists at the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center visited 18 classrooms at local schools for the 2022 Great American Teach-In...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Ida Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Ida Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Ida approached the U.S. northern Gulf coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Henri Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Henri Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Henri approached the US northeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 17
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The forec
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The forec
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broken staircase and sand dune

Storm-Induced Coastal Change

Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Storm-Induced Coastal Change

Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.
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Predicted probabilities of dune erosion

Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Dorian
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Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Screenshot: Coastal Change Hazards Portal - Hurricane Dorian - Sept. 5

Real-Time Storm Response

Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Real-Time Storm Response

Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.
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Map with bands overlain showing predicted probabilities of dune erosion, overwash, and inundation for Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Michael
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Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Predicted probabilities of dune erosion from Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Florence
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Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Probabilities of coastal erosion - Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change

Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change

Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.
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Potential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Joaquin - Oct. 4, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Potential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Sandy - Oct. 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Sandy
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Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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tential coastal change impacts for Hurricane Matthew - Oct. 7, 2016

Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Matthew
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Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Photo Highlighting Predicted Erosion and Inundation areas in Texas

Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Harvey
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Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Hurricane Irma-response page intro slide

Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Irma, Hurricanes
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Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
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Filter Total Items: 25

Coupled ADCIRC+SWAN simulations of Lake Superior with surface ice cover in February 2020

The analyses of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL) historical ice cover data during 1973–2021 indicate that warmer winters with reduced surface ice cover have become more frequent in the last two decades (1995–2021) compared to the previous decades (1973–1995) in the Great Lakes. In the past two decades, for example, years with lower-than-normal ice cover have become more
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Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

SWASH Model Water Level Timeseries at Wrightsville Beach, NC during Hurricane Isaias, August 2020

This data release contains model output of water level elevation time series generated by the Simulating WAves till SHore (SWASH) model to simulate storm-induced water levels from Hurricane Isaias at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina (NC), USA. Water levels were simulated along three different cross-shore profiles over a period of 10 hours around the peak of the storm from 2300 GMT on August 3, 2
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Lidar-derived Beach Volumes and Shoreline Change for New Jersey and New York

This data release defines beach volumes and shoreline change for each 10-meter-wide profile along the New Jersey and New York coastline. The profiles are derived from light detection and ranging (lidar)-digital elevation models (DEMs). These data support the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF)-funded project entitled “Monitoring Hurricane Sandy Beach and Marsh Resilience in New York and N
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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Puerto Rico

These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the Puerto Rico open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophistica
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Storm-Induced Overwash Extent

The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data release defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits, determined from aerial photograph analysis, attributed to coastal processes during storm events. Note: This data release was versioned on June 11, 2024. Please see the Suggested Citation section f
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards

These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 1-km section of the United States sandy open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticat
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities, Gulf of Mexico

Coastal Cliff Top and Toe Delineation Derived from Lidar for Puerto Rico: 2018

The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to understand and forecast coastal landscape change. This dataset delineates coastal cliff features (cliff tops, toes, and 3D elevation transects) to assess the hazard posed by eroding coastal cliffs in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. The delineation of cliff tops and toes can be used as an input into cliff hazard metrics and to mea
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Lidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project aims to identify areas of the nation's coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here, organized by individual fiel
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Storm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events

These data sets contain information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) on sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts during real-time peak forecast conditions. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respon
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico

EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Ike, 2008

These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 17th, 2008, following Hurricane Ike landfall.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Rita, 2005

These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 27th and 28th, and October 2nd, 2005, following Hurricane Rita landfall.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

EAARL Coastal Topography-Eastern Louisiana Barrier Islands, 09 March 2008

These datasets, prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center and the National Park Service (NPS), provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of eastern Louisiana. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on March 9, 2008.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on October 9, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 86 percent of beaches along the west coast of the Florida peninsula were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 82 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 75 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Milton, Hurricanes
Screenshot of predicted impacts to Florida beaches from Hurricane Milton, with light to dark ribbons.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows potential coastal change from Hurricane Milton

Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on October 9, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 86 percent of beaches along the west coast of the Florida peninsula were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 82 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 75 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Milton, Hurricanes
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows predictions for the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi from Hurricane Francine.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
A computer simulation shows the probability of coastal effects from Hurricane Francine

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows predictions for the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi from Hurricane Francine.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

Potential coastal change impacts are predicted during a direct landfall of Hurricane Beryl on the Texas coast at 4:00 am, Sunday, July 7, 2024.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricanes
Screen shot of a webpage as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast, with red-to-white strips showing impacts expected.

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Beryl's expected impacts

Potential coastal change impacts are predicted during a direct landfall of Hurricane Beryl on the Texas coast at 4:00 am, Sunday, July 7, 2024.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricanes
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)
View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia
View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

Prior to landfall on the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula on August 30, 2023, the Coastal Change Hazards Team forecast that 95 percent of beaches were forecast to erode at the dunes’ base, 20 percent of dunes were forecast to be overwashed by storm waves, and 1 percent of dunes were expected to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves. T

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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
A screen shot of computer tool shows selected areas (left) and total water level forecast for Madeira Beach Florida (right)

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

View of forecast for Madeira Beach, FL on the USGS Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer on August 30, 2023, during Hurricane Idalia

Prior to landfall on the Gulf coast of the Florida peninsula on August 30, 2023, the Coastal Change Hazards Team forecast that 95 percent of beaches were forecast to erode at the dunes’ base, 20 percent of dunes were forecast to be overwashed by storm waves, and 1 percent of dunes were expected to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves. T

By
St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas
Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina
Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Potential coastal change impacts during a direct landfall of Hurricane Ian as of 11:00 am, Friday, September 30, 2022.

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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Ian
Screen shot of a webpage showing Hurricane Ian approaching the South Carolina coast. Red-to-white strips show impact areas

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Coastal Change Hazards Portal shows Hurricane Ian approaching South Carolina

Potential coastal change impacts during a direct landfall of Hurricane Ian as of 11:00 am, Friday, September 30, 2022.

By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Hurricane Ian
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches
Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team has forecast coast-wide levels of beach erosion, inundation and overwash due to Hurricane Florence's expected path and landgfall.

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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Communications and Publishing, Hurricane Florence
US Atlantic coast map 3 levels of forecast beach effects Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

Hurricane Florence will erode or overwash beaches

The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team has forecast coast-wide levels of beach erosion, inundation and overwash due to Hurricane Florence's expected path and landgfall.

By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Communications and Publishing, Hurricane Florence
Filter Total Items: 29

Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast (TWL&CC Forecast) provides coastal communities with 6-day notice of potential elevated water levels and coastal change (i.e., dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) on sandy beaches that threatens safety, infrastructure, or resources. This continuously operating model provides hourly information for select regions along U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atla
Authors
Justin J. Birchler, Margaret L. Palmsten, Kara S. Doran, Sharifa Karwandyar, Joshua Michael Pardun, Elora M. Oades, Ryan P. Mulligan, Eli Sawyer Whitehead-Zimmers
By
St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Operational forecasts of wave-driven water levels and coastal hazards for US Gulf and Atlantic coasts

Predictions of total water levels, the elevation of combined tides, surge, and wave runup at the shoreline, are necessary to provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding. Despite the importance of early warning systems for these hazards, existing real-time meteorological and oceanographic forecast systems at regional and national scales, until now, have lacked estimates of runup nece
Authors
Hilary F Stockdon, Joseph W. Long, Margaret L. Palmsten, Andre Van der Westhuysen, Kara S. Doran, Richard J. Snell
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Gulf of Mexico

Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes

The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to
Authors
Erdinc Sogut, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Andrew Ashton, Walter Barnhardt, Kara S. Doran, Margaret L. Palmsten
By
St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal
Authors
James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter Ruggiero
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers

Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, piping
Authors
Sara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika Lentz, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. Sturdivant, Kara S. Doran
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Distinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new nonparametric noise model that is data-dependent and consid
Authors
Yingli Zhu, Gary T. Mitchum, Kara S. Doran, Don P. Chambers, Xinfeng Liang
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change

Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands were breached, and the erosion of beaches and dunes o
Authors
Justin J. Birchler, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Hilary F. Stockdon
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

Forecasts of coastal change hazards

Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model is
Authors
Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Joseph Long, Nathaniel G. Plant
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Toward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels

Storm surge and large waves combine to erode beaches, cause marsh and coral decay, and inundate low-elevation areas, resulting in hazards to coastal communities and loss of natural resources. The USGS, in collaboration with NOAA, is developing a real-time system to provide ∼ 6-day forecasts of total water levels (TWLs) combining tides, storm surge, and wave runup. TWL is compared with dune elevati
Authors
Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Li H. Erikson
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Comparing methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program for deriving shoreline position from lidar data

The U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program uses three methods to derive a datum-based, mean high water shoreline on open-ocean coasts from light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation surveys. This work compared the shorelines produced by the three methods for two different surveys: one survey with simple beach morphology, and one survey with complex beach morphology. For the s
Authors
Amy S. Farris, Kathryn M. Weber, Kara S. Doran, Jeffrey H. List
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands

This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have document
Authors
Nathaniel G. Plant, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities, Gulf of Mexico

A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements of beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts of coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. The wave-induced water level component (wave setup and swash) is estimated by using modeled offs
Authors
Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Jacquelyn R. Overbeck
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Filter Total Items: 41
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Milton Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Milton Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Milton approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Helene Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Helene Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Helene approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the aftermath of Helene

USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the aftermath of Helene

To learn more about USGS science related to Hurricane Milton:

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Francine Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Francine approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Beryl Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Beryl Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Beryl approached the US Gulf of Mexico coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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USGS showcased three Coastal Change Hazards tools to natural hazards resilience specialists at the Southeast and Caribbean Disaster Resilience Partnership (SCDRP) Annual Meeting

USGS showcased three Coastal Change Hazards tools to natural hazards resilience specialists at the Southeast and Caribbean Disaster Resilience Partnership (SCDRP) Annual Meeting

Dr. Donya Frank-Gilchrist of the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center attended the SCDRP annual meeting to engage with community leaders...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Idalia Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Idalia Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Idalia approached the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and then the southeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series...

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DYOD (Download Your Own Data): New API available for total water level and coastal change forecasts can aid coastal resilience

DYOD (Download Your Own Data): New API available for total water level and coastal change forecasts can aid coastal resilience

Need coastal forecast data? We've got your back. The USGS and NOAA have provided real-time forecasts of total water levels and coastal change along U...

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Kara Doran invited to speak at the 2023 National Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) Workshop

Kara Doran invited to speak at the 2023 National Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) Workshop

Kara will present USGS Coastal Change Hazards tools for restoration and resiliency to the NRDAR community of practitioners as part of an oral session...

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USGS St. Petersburg Scientists Present to Students for the Annual Great American Teach-In

USGS St. Petersburg Scientists Present to Students for the Annual Great American Teach-In

Four scientists at the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center visited 18 classrooms at local schools for the 2022 Great American Teach-In...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Ida Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Ida Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Ida approached the U.S. northern Gulf coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach...

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Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Henri Beach Impacts

Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Henri Beach Impacts

As Hurricane Henri approached the US northeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the...

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