Kara Doran
Kara Doran is an oceanographer with the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center. Her area of expertise is understanding and forecasting storm impacts to sandy coastlines.
Biography
For the last decade, she has been part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project. Her work in this project includes:
- Producing real-time forecasts and scenario-based predictions of coastal total water level and geomorphic change during storms
- Analysis of lidar-derived measures of coastal change
Since 2018 she has acted as the coastal change hazards liaison to the the USGS Storm Team and has worked in partnership with other federal agencies such as US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide the nation scientifically rigorous information to assess national vulnerability to coastal change hazards.
Education
M.S. Marine Science University of South Florida
B.S. Physics Grove City College
Science and Products
Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces
The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The...
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.
Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Real-Time Storm Response
Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.
Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change
Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.
Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.
Distinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions
Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new...
Zhu, Yingli; Mitchum, Gary T.; Doran, Kara S.; Chambers, Don P.; Liang, Xinfeng
Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands...
Birchler, Justin J.; Doran, Kara S.; Long, Joseph W.; Stockdon, Hilary F. Forecasts of coastal change hazards
Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including...
Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Joseph Long; Plant, Nathaniel G.
Comparing methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program for deriving shoreline position from lidar data
The U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program uses three methods to derive a datum-based, mean high water shoreline on open-ocean coasts from light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation surveys. This work compared the shorelines produced by the three methods for two different surveys: one survey with simple beach morphology, and...
Farris, Amy S.; Weber, Kathryn M.; Doran, Kara S.; List, Jeffrey H. Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands
This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time...
Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F. EAARL coastal topography—northwest Florida, post-Hurricane Katrina, 2005
These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of northwest Florida. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) in September 2005, immediately following...
Fredericks, Alexandra M.; Kranenburg, Christine; Doran, Kara Lidar-derived beach morphology (dune crest, dune toe, and shoreline) for U.S. sandy coastlines
The USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to identify areas of the nation’s coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here,...
Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Brenner, Owen T.; Hardy, Matthew; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Torres, Miguel Loubriel Hurricane Matthew overwash extents
The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits attributed to coastal processes during Hurricane Matthew.
Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Range, Ginger Beach Slopes of New Jersey
The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project derives features of beach morphology from lidar elevation data for the purpose of understanding and predicting storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This dataset defines mean beach slopes along the United States Northeast Atlantic Ocean for New Jersey for data collected at various times...
Doran, Kara; Long, Joseph W.; Birchler, Justin; Morgan, Karen L. M. EAARL Coastal Topography—Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida, June 2008
This dataset, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provides first and last return elevation data collected during a June 24, 2008 airborne lidar survey for the Chandeleur Islands, LA, Dauphin Island, AL, Santa Rosa Island, FL, and Bon Secour, AL. Elevation measurements were collected...
Long, Joseph W.; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Doran, Kara EAARL Coastal Topography—Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama September 2006
This dataset, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provides first and last return elevation data collected during a September 20-22, 2006 airborne lidar survey for the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, and Cat Island, Mississippi, through Dauphin Island, Alabama. Elevation measurements were...
Long, Joseph W.; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Doran, Kara EAARL Coastal Topography—Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, March 2006
This dataset, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provides first and last return elevation data collected during a March 14-15, 2006 airborne lidar survey for the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, and Ship Island, Mississippi through Orange Beach, Alabama. Elevation measurements were collected over...
Long, Joseph W.; Morgan, Karen L. M.; Doran, Kara
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Ida Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Ida approached the U.S. northern Gulf coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Henri Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Henri approached the US northeast Atlantic coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts for New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast expands to include more than a thousand miles of new coverage
The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts have been extended across an additional 1,700 km of US coastline to provide coastal change hazards predictions to coastal communities.
Improved Resilience in Active 2020 Hurricane Season due to Science Investments from 2017 Hurricane Recovery Funds
The record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is the first on record in which 9 tropical storms formed before August and 13 before September. Investments made in USGS coastal change science after the powerful 2017 hurricane season were focused on improving hazards planning for future storms.
SPCMSC Research Oceanographer, Meg Palmsten, and SPCMSC Oceanographer, Kara Doran, interviewed for a documentary film
On December 11, Meg Palmsten and Kara Doran were interviewed in person at Madeira Beach and Fort Desoto Park in Pinellas County, Florida, following USGS COVID-19 protocols. Filmmaker Dave Santillo from TerraTrek focused the interview on coastal change hazards and storm impacts research that the USGS and St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center has been leading.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Zeta Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Zeta approached the US Gulf Coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. The model forecasts the probability of collision, overwash and inundation (pCOI) along sandy beaches of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Delta Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Delta approached the US Gulf Coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. The model forecasts the probability of collision, overwash and inundation (pCOI) along the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Sally Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Sally approached the US Gulf Coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Laura Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Laura approached the US Gulf Coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted Hurricane Isaias Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Isaias approached the U.S. east coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from NOAA.
USGS Produced Coastal Change Forecasts for Hurricane Hanna
Hurricane Hanna caused high waves and storm surge along the beaches of South Texas and made landfall at Padre Island, Texas at approximately 5pm CDT on July 25, 2020.
Kara Doran gives presentation at NOAA National Weather Service Rip Current Workshop
Kara Doran gave a presentation on the USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast model to a group of National Weather Service forecasters at the NWS Rip Current Workshop. Several forecast offices shared how they are using the experimental model to improve their forecasts of coastal change hazards to the public.