Kara Doran is an oceanographer with the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center. Her area of expertise is understanding and forecasting storm impacts to sandy coastlines.
For the last decade, she has been part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project. Her work in this project includes:
- Producing real-time forecasts and scenario-based predictions of coastal total water level and geomorphic change during storms
- Analysis of lidar-derived measures of coastal change
Since 2018 she has acted as the coastal change hazards liaison to the USGS Storm Team and has worked in partnership with other federal agencies such as US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide the nation scientifically rigorous information to assess national vulnerability to coastal change hazards.
Professional Experience
Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal & Marine Geology Science Center, 2010 to present
Researcher, Jacobs Technologies contracted to the U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal & Marine Science Center, 2007-2010
Education and Certifications
M.S. Marine Science, University of South Florida
B.S. Physics, Grove City College
Science and Products
Operational forecasts of wave-driven water levels and coastal hazards for US Gulf and Atlantic coasts
Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Predicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Distinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions
Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Forecasts of coastal change hazards
Toward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels
Comparing methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program for deriving shoreline position from lidar data
Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands
A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines
Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level
Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces
Storm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Real-Time Storm Response
Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change
Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Puerto Rico
Storm-Induced Overwash Extent
National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards
Coastal Cliff Top and Toe Delineation Derived from Lidar for Puerto Rico: 2018
Lidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines
Storm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events
EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Ike, 2008
EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Rita, 2005
EAARL Coastal Topography-Eastern Louisiana Barrier Islands, 09 March 2008
EAARL Coastal Topography-Northwest Florida, Post-Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Hurricane Matthew Overwash Extents
National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: South Carolina to New Hampshire update
Science and Products
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 28
Operational forecasts of wave-driven water levels and coastal hazards for US Gulf and Atlantic coasts
Predictions of total water levels, the elevation of combined tides, surge, and wave runup at the shoreline, are necessary to provide guidance on potential coastal erosion and flooding. Despite the importance of early warning systems for these hazards, existing real-time meteorological and oceanographic forecast systems at regional and national scales, until now, have lacked estimates of runup neceAuthorsHilary F Stockdon, Joseph W. Long, Margaret Louise Palmsten, Andre Van der Westhuysen, Kara S. Doran, Richard J. SnellToward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes
The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) toAuthorsErdinc Sogut, Alfredo Aretxabaleta, Andrew Ashton, Walter Barnhardt, Kara S. Doran, Margaret Louise PalmstenCharacterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastalAuthorsJames B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter RuggieroPredicted sea-level rise-driven biogeomorphological changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for people and plovers
Forecasting biogeomorphological conditions for barrier islands is critical for informing sea-level rise (SLR) planning, including management of coastal development and ecosystems. We combined five probabilistic models to predict SLR-driven changes and their implications on Fire Island, New York, by 2050. We predicted barrier island biogeomorphological conditions, dynamic landcover response, pipingAuthorsSara Lynn Zeigler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Erika Lentz, Nathaniel Plant, Emily J. Sturdivant, Kara S. DoranDistinguishing between regression model fits to global mean sea level reconstructions
Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new nonparametric noise model that is data-dependent and considAuthorsYingli Zhu, Gary T. Mitchum, Kara S. Doran, Don P. Chambers, Xinfeng LiangHurricane Matthew: Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change
Hurricane Matthew, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2016 hurricane season, made land-fall south of McClellanville, S.C., around 1500 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on October 8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew affected the States of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. Numerous barrier islands were breached, and the erosion of beaches and dunes oAuthorsJustin J. Birchler, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Hilary F. StockdonForecasts of coastal change hazards
Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model isAuthorsKara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Joseph Long, Nathaniel G. PlantToward a national coastal hazard forecast of total water levels
Storm surge and large waves combine to erode beaches, cause marsh and coral decay, and inundate low-elevation areas, resulting in hazards to coastal communities and loss of natural resources. The USGS, in collaboration with NOAA, is developing a real-time system to provide ∼ 6-day forecasts of total water levels (TWLs) combining tides, storm surge, and wave runup. TWL is compared with dune elevatiAuthorsAlfredo Aretxabaleta, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Li H. EriksonComparing methods used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program for deriving shoreline position from lidar data
The U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program uses three methods to derive a datum-based, mean high water shoreline on open-ocean coasts from light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation surveys. This work compared the shorelines produced by the three methods for two different surveys: one survey with simple beach morphology, and one survey with complex beach morphology. For the sAuthorsAmy S. Farris, Kathryn M. Weber, Kara S. Doran, Jeffrey H. ListExamples of storm impacts on barrier islands
This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documentAuthorsNathaniel G. Plant, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. StockdonA method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements of beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts of coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. The wave-induced water level component (wave setup and swash) is estimated by using modeled offsAuthorsKara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, Jacquelyn R. OverbeckDetecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level
This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of newAuthorsKara S. Doran, Peter A. Howd, Asbury H. Sallenger, - Science
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Making USGS/NOAA Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast data accessible through user-friendly interfaces
The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast delivers 6-day forecasts of hourly water levels and the probability of waves impacting dunes along 5000 km of sandy coasts along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and will soon expand to the Pacific. These forecasts provide needed information to local governments and federal partners and are used by the USGS to place sensors before a storm. The forecStorm-Induced Coastal Change
Hurricanes and other extreme storms generate storm surge and large waves, eroding the beach and dune system and reshaping the coastal landscape.Hurricane Dorian - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Dorian coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Real-Time Storm Response
Coastal change forecasts and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change for landfalling storms. Currently responding to Hurricane Dorian.Hurricane Michael - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Michael coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Hurricane Florence - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Florence coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change
Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.Hurricane Joaquin - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Joaquin coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Hurricane Sandy - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Sandy coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Matthew coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Hurricane Harvey - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Harvey coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change.Hurricane Irma - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change
Hurricane Irma coastal change forecast and pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change. - Data
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National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Puerto Rico
These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the Puerto Rico open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticaStorm-Induced Overwash Extent
The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data release defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits, determined from aerial photograph analysis, attributed to coastal processes during storm events. Note: This data release was versioned on September 16, 2021. Please see the Suggested Citation sectNational Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards
These datasets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation, and overwash) for each 1-km section of the United States sandy open-ocean coastline for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model (Sallenger, 2000; https://www.jstor.org/stable/4300099) that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticatCoastal Cliff Top and Toe Delineation Derived from Lidar for Puerto Rico: 2018
The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project aims to understand and forecast coastal landscape change. This dataset delineates coastal cliff features (cliff tops, toes, and 3D elevation transects) to assess the hazard posed by eroding coastal cliffs in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques. The delineation of cliff tops and toes can be used as an input into cliff hazard metrics and to meaLidar-derived Beach Morphology (Dune Crest, Dune Toe, and Shoreline) for U.S. Sandy Coastlines
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project aims to identify areas of the nation's coastline that are most vulnerable to extreme storms and long-term shoreline change. These assessments require coastal elevation data across diverse geographic regions and covering a time span of many years. The datasets published here, organized by individual fielStorm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Archive of Individual Storm Events
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) on sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts during real-time peak forecast conditions. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will responEAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Ike, 2008
These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 17th, 2008, following Hurricane Ike landfall.EAARL Coastal Topography-Texas, Post-Hurricane Rita, 2005
These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of the Texas coastline. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on September 27th and 28th, and October 2nd, 2005, following Hurricane Rita landfall.EAARL Coastal Topography-Eastern Louisiana Barrier Islands, 09 March 2008
These datasets, prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center and the National Park Service (NPS), provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of eastern Louisiana. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) on March 9, 2008.EAARL Coastal Topography-Northwest Florida, Post-Hurricane Katrina, 2005
These datasets, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, provide lidar-derived first-surface and bare-earth topography for a portion of northwest Florida. Elevation measurements were acquired by the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL) in September 2005, immediately following Hurricane Katrina landfall.Hurricane Matthew Overwash Extents
The National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project exists to understand and predict storm impacts to our nation's coastlines. This data defines the alongshore extent of overwash deposits attributed to coastal processes during Hurricane Matthew.National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: South Carolina to New Hampshire update
These data sets contain information on the probabilities of hurricane-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 1-km section of the U.S. coast for category 1-5 hurricanes. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of - Multimedia
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