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Influence of future climate scenarios on habitat and population dynamics of greater sage-grouse Active

By Western Ecological Research Center (WERC) February 29, 2024

Sagebrush ecosystems and sagebrush-dependent wildlife species are likely to experience more frequent extreme drought and temperature conditions with changing climate. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an indicator species in sagebrush ecosystems, may experience habitat and population losses that are increasingly exacerbated by current and future climate change. However, the direct and indirect effects that climate change may have on sage-grouse populations and their habitat are not well-understood. We seek to evaluate direct and indirect impacts on sage-grouse population dynamics from projected changes in precipitation, drought, and habitat availability. 

Under climate change, sagebrush ecosystems and sagebrush-dependent wildlife species are increasingly likely to be subjected to extreme drought and temperature conditions. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter sage-grouse) populations are particularly sensitive to extreme precipitation and drought, both of which determine long-term availability of forage resources and protective cover across seasons and life stages. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the wildfire-cheatgrass cycle outpaces sagebrush recovery across the Great Basin region, therefore habitat and population losses may be increasingly exacerbated by current and future climate change (Coates and others, 2016). However, the direct and indirect effects that climate change may have on sage-grouse populations and their future habitat are not well-understood. 

 

A clutch of 8 eggs broken open in a sage-grouse nest, broken in half with inner membranes intact
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Successfully hatched Greater Sage-Grouse nest in southeastern Oregon. Carl Lundblad (USGS).

This project seeks to evaluate direct and indirect impacts on sage-grouse population dynamics from projected changes in precipitation, drought, and habitat availability. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and state wildlife agencies have developed population monitoring tools for sage-grouse range-wide (Prochazka and others, 2023). Sage-grouse populations are experiencing long-term declines despite cyclical boom-bust population trajectories (Coates and others, 2021) and are sensitive to extreme precipitation and drought that may determine long-term availability of forage resources across seasons and life stages (Lundblad and others, 2022, Severson and others, 2022). Sagebrush ecosystems will likely undergo a gradual shift toward warmer temperatures and intensified precipitation patterns. Future drought and disturbance events may occur more frequently based on climate model projections (for example, general circulation models, or GCMs). Overall, drought and disturbance interactions may reduce habitat suitability and prevent sage-grouse from recovering to their pre-drought abundance, possibly contributing to local extinction of vulnerable populations. 

 

Depending on availability of continued funds, this project will facilitate investigation of the direct contributions of precipitation and drought relative to future changes in habitat components.  The following objectives will assist BLM, FWS, and other agencies in their identification of sage-grouse populations and habitat at potential risk of future loss and degradation, in relation to climate change.

 

Objectives

  1. Quantify variation in sage-grouse demographics, abundance, and population rates of change in response to patterns of precipitation, drought, and changes to vegetation communities.
  2. Identify spatially explicit, long-term projections of sage-grouse population sizes under future climate scenarios described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  3. Establish a working group among USGS, BLM, and FWS collaborators to: 
    • develop modeling frameworks that identify spatially explicit long-term projected changes and potential losses of sage-grouse habitat (beyond direct effects of precipitation and drought), and 
    • infer long-term abundance estimates and local extinction probabilities of sage-grouse populations based on projections of future precipitation, drought, and habitat changes anticipated from climate change. 

 

Implications

The results, models, and tools resulting from this work will directly support range-wide management and conservation efforts targeting greater sage-grouse under changing climatic conditions. Models and mapping products will allow the BLM, FWS, and other federal and state agencies to identify sage-grouse habitat and populations at risk of future loss and degradation, in relation to climate change, as well as to identify and protect likely climate refugia to benefit multiple sagebrush obligate species. Furthermore, the analyses, models, and mapping projects derived from this research will help guide decision-making regarding the BLM Land Use Planning Amendment (LUPA) process, including the future siting of renewable energy development, mining, infrastructure, and other development within the sagebrush ecosystem. These products can also help guide priorities with respect to fire prevention and suppression, fuel breaks, vegetation management, and restoration actions following large-scale disturbance events such as wildfires that are expected to become increasingly frequent and severe under future climate. 

 

BLM-USGS science-management partnership

The USGS, FWS, BLM, and state wildlife agencies (California Department of Fish and Wildlife; Colorado Parks and Wildlife; Idaho Department of Fish and Game; Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks; Nevada Department of Wildlife; North Dakota Game and Fish Department; Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks; Utah Division of Wildlife Resources; Wyoming Game and Fish Department; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) have developed range-wide population monitoring tools for sage-grouse, which facilitated and precipitated the development of this project. This work is a collaboration among staff at three different USGS Science Centers (WERC, FORT, and SBSC), the FWS Science Support Program, the BLM, and the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area to anticipate the direct and indirect effects that future climate scenarios may have on sage-grouse populations and their habitat. USGS is partnering with FWS and BLM to coproduce this project, with the goal of producing practical actionable science to guide planning, policy, and management of western sagebrush ecosystems and public lands.

 

References

Coates, P. S., M. A. Ricca, B. G. Prochazka, M. L. Brooks, K.E. Doherty, T. Kroger, E. J. Blomberg, C. A. Hagen, and M. L. Casazza. Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113: 45.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606898113. 

Coates, P. S., B. G. Prochazka, M. S. O'Donnell, C. L. Aldridge, D. R. Edmunds, A. P. Monroe, M.A. Ricca, G. T. Wann, S. E. Hanser, L. A. Wiechman and M. P. Chenaille. 2021. Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework: Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2020-1154. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201154.

Lundblad, C. G., C. A. Hagen, J. P. Donnelly, S. T. Vold, A. M. Moser, and S.P. Espinosa. 2022. Sensitivity to weather drives Great Basin mesic resources and Greater Sage-Grouse productivity. Ecological Indicators 142: 109231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109231.

Prochazka, B. G., P. S. Coates, M. S. O'Donnell, D. R. Edmunds, A. P. Monroe, M. A. Ricca, G. T. Wann, S. E. Hanser, L. A. Wiechman, K. E. Doherty, M. P. Chenaille, and C. L. Aldridge. 2023. A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species. Ecological Indicators 148: 110097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110097. 

Severson, J. P., P. S. Coates, M. C. Milligan, S. T. O'Neil, M. A. Ricca, S. C. Abele, J. D. Boone, and M. L. Casazza. 2022. Moisture abundance and proximity mediates seasonal use of mesic habitat and survival of greater sage-grouse broods. Ecological Solutions and Evidence 3: e12194. https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12194. 

Sagebrush ecosystems and sagebrush-dependent wildlife species are likely to experience more frequent extreme drought and temperature conditions with changing climate. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an indicator species in sagebrush ecosystems, may experience habitat and population losses that are increasingly exacerbated by current and future climate change. However, the direct and indirect effects that climate change may have on sage-grouse populations and their habitat are not well-understood. We seek to evaluate direct and indirect impacts on sage-grouse population dynamics from projected changes in precipitation, drought, and habitat availability. 

Under climate change, sagebrush ecosystems and sagebrush-dependent wildlife species are increasingly likely to be subjected to extreme drought and temperature conditions. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter sage-grouse) populations are particularly sensitive to extreme precipitation and drought, both of which determine long-term availability of forage resources and protective cover across seasons and life stages. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the wildfire-cheatgrass cycle outpaces sagebrush recovery across the Great Basin region, therefore habitat and population losses may be increasingly exacerbated by current and future climate change (Coates and others, 2016). However, the direct and indirect effects that climate change may have on sage-grouse populations and their future habitat are not well-understood. 

 

A clutch of 8 eggs broken open in a sage-grouse nest, broken in half with inner membranes intact
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Successfully hatched Greater Sage-Grouse nest in southeastern Oregon. Carl Lundblad (USGS).

This project seeks to evaluate direct and indirect impacts on sage-grouse population dynamics from projected changes in precipitation, drought, and habitat availability. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM), and state wildlife agencies have developed population monitoring tools for sage-grouse range-wide (Prochazka and others, 2023). Sage-grouse populations are experiencing long-term declines despite cyclical boom-bust population trajectories (Coates and others, 2021) and are sensitive to extreme precipitation and drought that may determine long-term availability of forage resources across seasons and life stages (Lundblad and others, 2022, Severson and others, 2022). Sagebrush ecosystems will likely undergo a gradual shift toward warmer temperatures and intensified precipitation patterns. Future drought and disturbance events may occur more frequently based on climate model projections (for example, general circulation models, or GCMs). Overall, drought and disturbance interactions may reduce habitat suitability and prevent sage-grouse from recovering to their pre-drought abundance, possibly contributing to local extinction of vulnerable populations. 

 

Depending on availability of continued funds, this project will facilitate investigation of the direct contributions of precipitation and drought relative to future changes in habitat components.  The following objectives will assist BLM, FWS, and other agencies in their identification of sage-grouse populations and habitat at potential risk of future loss and degradation, in relation to climate change.

 

Objectives

  1. Quantify variation in sage-grouse demographics, abundance, and population rates of change in response to patterns of precipitation, drought, and changes to vegetation communities.
  2. Identify spatially explicit, long-term projections of sage-grouse population sizes under future climate scenarios described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  3. Establish a working group among USGS, BLM, and FWS collaborators to: 
    • develop modeling frameworks that identify spatially explicit long-term projected changes and potential losses of sage-grouse habitat (beyond direct effects of precipitation and drought), and 
    • infer long-term abundance estimates and local extinction probabilities of sage-grouse populations based on projections of future precipitation, drought, and habitat changes anticipated from climate change. 

 

Implications

The results, models, and tools resulting from this work will directly support range-wide management and conservation efforts targeting greater sage-grouse under changing climatic conditions. Models and mapping products will allow the BLM, FWS, and other federal and state agencies to identify sage-grouse habitat and populations at risk of future loss and degradation, in relation to climate change, as well as to identify and protect likely climate refugia to benefit multiple sagebrush obligate species. Furthermore, the analyses, models, and mapping projects derived from this research will help guide decision-making regarding the BLM Land Use Planning Amendment (LUPA) process, including the future siting of renewable energy development, mining, infrastructure, and other development within the sagebrush ecosystem. These products can also help guide priorities with respect to fire prevention and suppression, fuel breaks, vegetation management, and restoration actions following large-scale disturbance events such as wildfires that are expected to become increasingly frequent and severe under future climate. 

 

BLM-USGS science-management partnership

The USGS, FWS, BLM, and state wildlife agencies (California Department of Fish and Wildlife; Colorado Parks and Wildlife; Idaho Department of Fish and Game; Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks; Nevada Department of Wildlife; North Dakota Game and Fish Department; Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks; Utah Division of Wildlife Resources; Wyoming Game and Fish Department; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) have developed range-wide population monitoring tools for sage-grouse, which facilitated and precipitated the development of this project. This work is a collaboration among staff at three different USGS Science Centers (WERC, FORT, and SBSC), the FWS Science Support Program, the BLM, and the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area to anticipate the direct and indirect effects that future climate scenarios may have on sage-grouse populations and their habitat. USGS is partnering with FWS and BLM to coproduce this project, with the goal of producing practical actionable science to guide planning, policy, and management of western sagebrush ecosystems and public lands.

 

References

Coates, P. S., M. A. Ricca, B. G. Prochazka, M. L. Brooks, K.E. Doherty, T. Kroger, E. J. Blomberg, C. A. Hagen, and M. L. Casazza. Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113: 45.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606898113. 

Coates, P. S., B. G. Prochazka, M. S. O'Donnell, C. L. Aldridge, D. R. Edmunds, A. P. Monroe, M.A. Ricca, G. T. Wann, S. E. Hanser, L. A. Wiechman and M. P. Chenaille. 2021. Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework: Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2020-1154. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201154.

Lundblad, C. G., C. A. Hagen, J. P. Donnelly, S. T. Vold, A. M. Moser, and S.P. Espinosa. 2022. Sensitivity to weather drives Great Basin mesic resources and Greater Sage-Grouse productivity. Ecological Indicators 142: 109231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109231.

Prochazka, B. G., P. S. Coates, M. S. O'Donnell, D. R. Edmunds, A. P. Monroe, M. A. Ricca, G. T. Wann, S. E. Hanser, L. A. Wiechman, K. E. Doherty, M. P. Chenaille, and C. L. Aldridge. 2023. A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species. Ecological Indicators 148: 110097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110097. 

Severson, J. P., P. S. Coates, M. C. Milligan, S. T. O'Neil, M. A. Ricca, S. C. Abele, J. D. Boone, and M. L. Casazza. 2022. Moisture abundance and proximity mediates seasonal use of mesic habitat and survival of greater sage-grouse broods. Ecological Solutions and Evidence 3: e12194. https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12194.