John Bradford is a Research Ecologist with the USGS Southwest Biological Science Center. John studies dryland ecosystems in the context of global change and works with resource managers to identify adaptive strategies for sustaining these ecosystems in a changing world.
John focuses on understanding how changing climate, disturbances, and land use influence dryland vegetation, plant communities, and ecosystem services. He is currently engaged in the broad topics of ecohydrology and dryland sustainability in the western U.S. and has projects examining a) the potential influence of changing climatic conditions on the distribution and regeneration potential of trees and shrubs in the intermountain western U.S., b) strategies for understanding and enhancing dryland ecosystem resilience to changing climate and drought patterns, and c) ecosystem water balance and patterns of plant-available soil water in dryland regions.
Professional Experience
2011- Present: Research Ecologist - US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
2006 - 2011: Research Ecologist - USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, Grand Rapids, MN
2004 - 2006: Research Ecologist (Postdoctoral) - USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Education and Certifications
2004 - Ph.D., Ecology, Colorado State University
1996 - B.A., Biology, Cornell University
Science and Products
Informing seed transfer guidelines and native plant materials development: Research supporting restoration across the Colorado Plateau and beyond
Climate Adaptation Strategies for Arid Grasslands
Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau
Modernizing sensor data workflows to leverage Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud-based technologies
Contributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
Ecological Forecasting Workshop
Determining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire
Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.?
Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire
Integrating short-term climate forecast into a restoration management support tool
Webinar: Forest Management for Mitigating Drought Impacts
Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England
Bioclimatic suitability for 11 dominant Colorado Plateau perennial grass species (ver. 2.0, November 2022)
Biome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design
Pinyon-juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions
Historical and future ecological drought conditions for rangelands of the western U.S.
High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
High-resolution maps of projected big sagebrush plant community biomass for 52 future climate scenarios using multivariate matching algorithms
High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
Climate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks
Estimated tree mortality, basal area, climate, and drought conditions for ponderosa pine in forest inventory plots across the western U.S.
High-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms
A snapshot of stakeholder science needs related to drought in the Colorado River Basin
Simulated rangewide big sagebrush regeneration estimates and relationships with abiotic variables as function of soils under historical and future climate projections
Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development
A recruitment niche framework for improving seed-based restoration
Community for data integration 2019 project report
Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge
Divergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition
Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics
Geologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world
Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity
Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions
A sagebrush conservation design to proactively restore America’s sagebrush biome
Southeast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity
Colorado River Basin Projects
The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Team has created an interactive map of USGS projects to highlight the integrated science currently conducted within the Colorado River Basin. These projects are not all inclusive of the work conducted by the USGS within the CRB, but highlight the broad range of integrated science currently conducted.
Science and Products
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Informing seed transfer guidelines and native plant materials development: Research supporting restoration across the Colorado Plateau and beyond
As restoration needs for natural landscapes grow due to higher frequency and/or intensity disturbances, pressure from invasive species, and impacts resulting from changing climates, considerable time and resources are being invested to guide the development and deployment of native plant materials (NPMs). Across lower elevations of the Colorado Plateau, a region composed primarily of public land...Climate Adaptation Strategies for Arid Grasslands
Helping National Parks in the 4-Corners region manage grasslands in a changing climate.Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau
Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decadeModernizing sensor data workflows to leverage Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud-based technologies
Drought is a major problem in the American Southwest that is expected to worsen under the effects of climate change. Currently, the Southwest Biological Science Center is monitoring the effects of drought with soil moisture probes in a range of ecosystems across an elevational gradient on the Colorado Plateau. These data are used in multiple studies to analyze the effects of drought on vegetationContributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
USGS scientists are contributing to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy, a strategy intended to provide guidance so that efforts to conserve the iconic greater sage-grouse can be expanded to the entire sagebrush biome to benefit the people and wildlife that depend on it.Ecological Forecasting Workshop
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the information in fDetermining Successful Management and Restoration Strategies for Pinyon-Juniper Communities in the Face of Changing Climate and Wildfire
Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyonCan Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.?
Ponderosa pine forests are declining and their future persistence is uncertain. Most research on forest declines has focused on the effects of disturbances including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and severe drought on mortality of mature trees. Yet, recent research suggests that ponderosa pine declines may be even more severe as these ecosystems fail to regenerate naturally (i.e. grow from seed to aLearning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire
Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In this pIntegrating short-term climate forecast into a restoration management support tool
Natural resources managers are regularly required to make decisions regarding upcoming restoration treatments, often based on little more than business as usual practices. To assist in the decision-making process, we created a tool that predicts site-specific soil moisture and climate for the upcoming year, and provides guidance on whether common restoration activities (i.e. seeding, planting) wilWebinar: Forest Management for Mitigating Drought Impacts
View this webinar to learn more about forest drought in the Southwest U.S. and ongoing research to mitigate regional drought effects.Effects of Climate, Disturbance, and Management on the Growth and Dynamics of Temperate and Sub-Boreal Forest Ecosystems within the Lake States and New England
Overview This project is using a combination of long-term data records and recently established large-scale adaptive management studies in managed forests across the Lake States, New England, Intermountain West, and Black Hills to identify forest management strategies and forest conditions that confer the greatest levels of resistance and resilience to past and emerging stressors and their re - Data
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Bioclimatic suitability for 11 dominant Colorado Plateau perennial grass species (ver. 2.0, November 2022)
These data were compiled to represent the distribution of environmental conditions with recognized importance to perennial grasses in dryland areas of the western U.S. Objective(s) of our study were to … evaluate how those environmental drivers are related to perennial grass distributions and use the results to assess how perennial grass distributions may shift in response to future climate changeBiome-wide sagebrush core habitat and growth areas estimated from a threat-based conservation design
These data were compiled as a part of a landscape conservation design effort for the sagebrush biome, and are the result of applying a spatially explicit model that assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used these results to identify Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas (ORAs). Our overall objective in this study was tPinyon-juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions
These data were compiled to help understand how climate change may impact dryland pinyon-juniper ecosystems in coming decades, and how resource management might be able to minimize those impacts. Objective(s) of our study were to model the demographic rates of PJ woodlands to estimate the areas that may decline in the future vs. those that will be stable. We quantified populations growth rates acrHistorical and future ecological drought conditions for rangelands of the western U.S.
These NetCDF data were compiled to investigate how rangelands in the western U.S. are limited by access to water. As a result, these ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to changes in water availability and drought as a result of climate change. This project utilized an ecosystem water balance model to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of rangeland ecological drought conditions under histoHigh-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
These data were compiled as a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2019), that employed a ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America. Also, these data are associated with a published USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2019). The objectivesHigh-resolution maps of projected big sagebrush plant community biomass for 52 future climate scenarios using multivariate matching algorithms
These data were compiled for the study: Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients. The objectives of our study were to (1) describe how climate change will alter the biomass and composition of key plant functional types; (2) quantify the impacts of climate change on future functional type biomass and composition alongHigh-resolution maps of historical and 21st century ecological drought metrics using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada
These data were compiled using a new multivariate matching algorithm that transfers simulated soil moisture conditions (Bradford et al. 2020) from an original 10-km resolution to a 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Also, these data are a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2020) and USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2020). The objectives of our study were tClimate and drought adaptation: historical and projected future exposure metrics for Southeastern Utah Group National Parks
These data were compiled to evaluate the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across the Southeastern Utah Group (SEUG) of National Parks. Objective(s) of our study were to quantify the magnitude and direction of change from historical conditions in climate metrics across SEUG parks at a meaningful scale for land managers and practitioners. These data repEstimated tree mortality, basal area, climate, and drought conditions for ponderosa pine in forest inventory plots across the western U.S.
These data consist of environmental covariates and estimated plot-level mortality of ponderosa pine trees. Environmental covariates include growing season temperature and soil moisture, and values are summarized into long-term mean conditions, and anomalies observed between forest inventory sampling events for each plot. Data also include plot locations (with uncertainty introduced by the US ForesHigh-resolution maps of big sagebrush plant community biomass using multivariate matching algorithms
These GeoTIFF data were compiled to investigate how a new multivariate matching algorithm transfers simulated plant functional biomass of big sagebrush plant communities from 200 sites to a gridded product with 30-arcsec spatial resolution. Objectives of our study were to (1) describe how climate change will alter the biomass and composition of key plant functional types; (2) quantify the impactsA snapshot of stakeholder science needs related to drought in the Colorado River Basin
Stakeholder science needs were determined by reviewing more than 200 recently published literature items and web pages from Colorado River Basin (CRB) stakeholders. These stakeholder communications were used to characterize over 400 stakeholder science needs by reviewing their priorities, strategies, issues, missions, and concerns related to drought in the CRB. Members of the CRB Integrated SciencByArizona Water Science Center, California Water Science Center, Colorado Water Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Nevada Water Science Center, New Mexico Water Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Utah Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Colorado River Basin: Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and TechnologySimulated rangewide big sagebrush regeneration estimates and relationships with abiotic variables as function of soils under historical and future climate projections
These NetCDF data were compiled to investigate how two complementary models can contribute to our understanding of contemporary and future big sagebrush regeneration across the historical and potential future sagebrush region. Objective of our study was to apply both models to address three specific objectives: (i) examine the geographic patterns of big sagebrush regeneration probabilities that th - Multimedia
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Time, climate, and soil settings set the course for reclamation outcomes following dryland energy development
Soil attributes, climate, and time since reclamation have important implications for oil and gas reclamation success on drylands. It is uncertain if reclaimed well pads, on highly degraded drylands, can successfully regain ecological function or meet indicator benchmarks for reclamation. Here, our goals were to assess patterns in reclamation outcomes relative to (1) soil attributes, climate, and tAuthorsRandi Corrine Lupardus, Aarin Sengsirirak, Keven Griffen, Anna C Knight, Brandon E McNellis, John B. Bradford, Seth M. Munson, Sasha C. Reed, Miguel L. Villarreal, Michael C. DuniwayA recruitment niche framework for improving seed-based restoration
As larger tracts of land experience degradation, seed-based restoration (SBR) will be a primary tool to reestablish vegetation and ecosystem function. SBR has advanced in terms of technical and technological approaches, yet plant recruitment remains a major barrier in some systems, notably drylands. There is an unmet opportunity to test science-based approaches to seed mix design and application,AuthorsJulie E. Larson, A. C. Agneray, Chad S. Boyd, John B. Bradford, O. A. Kildisheva, Katharine N. Suding, Stella M. CopelandCommunity for data integration 2019 project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually supports small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 14 projects supported in fiscal year 2019 and outlines their goals, activities, and accomplishments. Proposals in 2019 were encouraged to addreAuthorsAmanda N. Liford, Caitlin M. Andrews, Aparna Bamzai, Joseph A. Bard, David S. Blehert, John B. Bradford, Wesley M. Daniel, Sara L. Caldwell Eldridge, Frank Engel, Jason A. Ferrante, Amy K. Gilmer, Margaret E. Hunter, Jeanne M. Jones, Benjamin Letcher, Frances L. Lightsom, Richard R. McDonald, Leah E. Morgan, Sasha C. Reed, Leslie HsuByEcosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI), Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Volcano Science Center, Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center, Science Data ManagementColorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information andAuthorsKatharine G. Dahm, Todd Hawbaker, Rebecca J. Frus, Adrian P. Monroe, John B. Bradford, William J. Andrews, Alicia Torregrosa, Eric D. Anderson, David Dean, Sharon L. QiPlant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge
Big sagebrush ecosystems are widespread across drylands of western North America and provide numerous services, but the abundance of these ecosystems has declined substantially and the future of these ecosystems is uncertain. As a result, characterizing potential areas for expansion of these ecosystems is important. Species distribution models of the big sagebrush suggest areas of increasing climaAuthorsT. Martyn, K. Palmquist, John B. Bradford, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, W.K. LauenrothDivergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition
AimGrasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C3 (cool-season) and C4 (warm-season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C3 and C4 perennial distributions and assess how C3 and C4 grass distributions shift in respoAuthorsCaroline A. Havrilla, John B. Bradford, Charles Yackulic, Seth M. MunsonEcologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics
In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-basedAuthorsD. A. Chenoweth, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, J. C. Chambers, J. L. Brown, A. K. Urza, Brice Hanberry, D. Board, M. Crist, John B. BradfordGeologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world
Drylands represent more than 41% of the global land surface and are at degradation risk due to land use and climate change. Developing strategies to mitigate degradation and restore drylands in the face of these threats requires an understanding of how drylands are shaped by not only soils and climate, but also geology and geomorphology. However, few studies have completed such a comprehensive anaAuthorsMichael C. Duniway, Christopher Benson, Travis W. Nauman, Anna C Knight, John B. Bradford, Seth M. Munson, Dana L. Witwicki, Carolyn Livensperger, Matthew W. Van Scoyoc, Terry T Fisk, David Thoma, Mark E. MillerClimate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity
Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed esAuthorsAndrew J Felton, Robert K Shriver, Michael Stemkovski, John B. Bradford, Katharine N. Suding, Peter B. AdlerDry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions
Aim: Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data onAuthorsRobert K. Shriver, Charles Yackulic, David M. Bell, John B. BradfordA sagebrush conservation design to proactively restore America’s sagebrush biome
A working group of experts with diverse professional backgrounds and disciplinary expertise was assembled to conceptualize a spatially explicit conservation design to support and inform the Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Part 2. The goal was to leverage recent advancements in remotely sensed landcover products to develop spatially and temporally explicit maps of sagebrush rangeland condition andAuthorsKevin Doherty, David M. Theobald, John B. Bradford, Lief A. Wiechman, Geoffrey Bedrosian, Chad S. Boyd, Matthew Cahill, Peter S. Coates, Megan K. Creutzburg, Michele R. Crist, Sean P. Finn, Alexander V. Kumar, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Jeremy D. Maestas, Karen L. Prentice, Brian G. Prochazka, Thomas E. Remington, William D. Sparklin, John C. Tull, Zachary Wurtzebach, Katherine A. ZellerSoutheast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity
National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. DevelopingAuthorsJohn B. Bradford, Caroline Havrilla, Jessica A. Hartsell, Daniel Rodolphe Schlaepfer, Molly L. McCormick, Seth M. Munson, Charles Yackulic, Terry T Fisk, David Thoma, Dusty Perkins, Dana L. Witwicki, Matt VanScoyoc, Michael C. Duniway, Sasha C. Reed - Web Tools
Colorado River Basin Projects
The Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Team has created an interactive map of USGS projects to highlight the integrated science currently conducted within the Colorado River Basin. These projects are not all inclusive of the work conducted by the USGS within the CRB, but highlight the broad range of integrated science currently conducted.
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