John B Bradford
I study the impact of global change on terrestrial ecosystems, focusing on understanding how changing climate and land use impact terrestrial vegetation and ecosystem processes, notably carbon and water cycling.
Ecohydrology and Climate Change in Drylands
Big Sagebrush Ecosystem Response to Climate & Disturbance
Biography
Education
2004 Ph.D., Ecology, Colorado State University
1996 B.A., Biology, Cornell University
Research Experience
2011- Present: Research Ecologist US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ
2006 - 2011 Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, Grand Rapids, MN
2004 - 2006 Research Ecologist (Postdoctoral) USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO
Science and Products
Ecological Forecasting Workshop
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the information...
Learning From the Past and Planning for the Future: Experience-Driven Insight Into Managing for Ecosystem Transformations Induced by Drought and Wildfire
Drought and wildfire pose enormous threats to the integrity of natural resources that land managers are charged with protecting. Recent observations and modeling forecasts indicate that these stressors will likely produce catastrophic ecosystem transformations, or abrupt changes in the condition of plants, wildlife, and their habitats, in regions across the country in coming decades. In...
Informing Seed Transfer Guidelines and Native Plant Materials Development: Research Supporting Restoration Across the Colorado Plateau and Beyond
As restoration needs for natural landscapes grow due to higher frequency and/or intensity disturbances, pressure from invasive species, and impacts resulting from changing climates, considerable time and resources are being invested to guide the development and deployment of native plant materials (NPMs). Across lower elevations of the Colorado Plateau, a region composed primarily of public...
Integrating short-term climate forecast into a restoration management support tool
Natural resources managers are regularly required to make decisions regarding upcoming restoration treatments, often based on little more than business as usual practices. To assist in the decision-making process, we created a tool that predicts site-specific soil moisture and climate for the upcoming year, and provides guidance on whether common restoration activities (i.e. seeding, planting...
Webinar: Forest Management for Mitigating Drought Impacts
View this webinar to learn more about forest drought in the Southwest U.S. and ongoing research to mitigate regional drought effects.
An Interactive Web-Based Tool for Anticipating Long-term Drought Risk
Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe and this trend is expected to continue in the coming century. Drought effects on natural resources include reduced water availability for plants and humans, as well as increased insect, disease, and vegetation mortality. Land managers need more information regarding how water availability may change and how drought will affect their sites in the...
Improving the Success of Post-Fire Adaptive Management Strategies in Sagebrush Steppe
Sagebrush steppe is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems in North America. Found in eleven western states, this important yet fragile ecosystem is dominated by sagebrush, but also contains a diversity of native shrubs, grasses, and flowering plants. It provides critical habitat for wildlife like pronghorn and threatened species such as the greater sage-grouse, and is grazed by...
Southwest Energy Development and Drought (SWEDD)
Deserts of the southwestern US are replete with oil and gas deposits as well as sites for solar, wind, and geothermal energy production. In the past, many of these resources have been too expensive to develop, but increased demand and new technologies have led to an increase in exploration and development. However, desert ecosystems generally have low resilience to disturbance. More frequent,...
Dryland Forest Sustainability
Forests in the semiarid southwestern U.S. are expected to be highly vulnerable to increasing aridity anticipated with climate change. In particular, low elevation forests and the processes of tree regeneration and mortality are likely to be highly susceptible to climate change. This work seeks to characterize how, where and when forest ecosystems will change and identify management...
Ecohydrology and Climate Change in Drylands
Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. However, climate forecasts in most dryland regions, especially the southwest U.S., call for increasing aridity. Specifically, changing climate will alter soil water availability, which exerts dominant control over ecosystem structure and function in water-limited, dryland ecosystems. This research...
RAMPS: Restoration Assessment & Monitoring Program for the Southwest
The Restoration Assessment and Monitoring Program for the Southwest (RAMPS) seeks to assist U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other land management agencies in developing successful techniques for improving land condition in dryland ecosystems of the southwestern United States. Invasion by non-native species, wildfire, drought, and other disturbances are growing...
Big Sagebrush Ecosystem Response to Climate & Disturbance
Big sagebrush ecosystems are a major component of landscapes in the western U.S. and provide vital habitat to a wide array of wildlife species. However, big sagebrush ecosystems have been dramatically impacted by disturbances in the past several decades. This collaborative research between USGS and the University of Wyoming focuses on understanding how climatic and soil conditions influence...
UAV-based estimate of snow cover dynamics: Optimizing semi-arid forest structure for snow persistence
Seasonal snow cover in the dry forests of the American West provides essential water resources to both human and natural systems. The structure of trees and their arrangement across the landscape are important drivers of snow cover distribution across these forests, varying widely in both space and time. We used unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)...
Belmonte, Adam; Sankey, Temuulen T.; Biedermann, Joel; Bradford, John; Goetz, Scott J; Kolb, Thomas Seasonal precipitation and soil moisture relationships across forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States
Precipitation [P: mm] controls forest and woodland dynamics in the southwestern United States (SWUS) by altering soil moisture [θ: mm3 mm−3] availability, but the influence of P on θ is complex, varying across space and time. We evaluated seasonal P and θ relationships at shallow (0‐20 cm) and intermediate (50 cm) soil...
Koehn, C.R.; Petrie, M.D.; Bradford, John; Litvak, M.E.; Strachan, S. Landscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest
Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to...
Bradford, John; Andrews, Caitlin M.; Robles, Marcos D.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Woolley, Travis; Marshall, Robert Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests
Warming climate and resulting declines in seasonal snowpack have been associated with drought stress and tree mortality in seasonally snow‐covered watersheds worldwide. Meanwhile, increasing forest density has further exacerbated drought stress due to intensified tree‐tree competition. Using a uniquely detailed dataset of population‐level forest...
Gleason, Kelly Erika; Bradford, John; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael A. Forest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity
Drought and warming increasingly are causing widespread tree die-offs and extreme wildfires. Forest managers are struggling to improve anticipatory forest management practices given more frequent, extensive, and severe wildfire and tree die-off events triggered by “hotter drought”—drought under warmer than historical conditions. Of even greater...
Field, Jason P.; Breshears, David D.; Bradford, John; Law, Darin J.; Feng, Xiaohui; Allen, Craig D. Non-analog increases to air, surface, and belowground temperature extreme events due to climate change
Air temperatures (Ta) are rising in a changing climate, increasing extreme temperature events. Examining how Ta increases are influencing extreme temperatures at the soil surface and belowground in the soil profile can refine our understanding of the ecological consequences of rising temperatures. In this paper, we validate surface and soil...
Petrie, M.D.; Bradford, John; Lauenroth, W.K.; Schlaepfer, D.R.; Andrews, Caitlin M.; Bell, D.M. An integrative ecological drought framework to span plant stress to ecosystem transformation
Droughts have increased globally in the twenty-first century and are expected to become more extreme and widespread in the future. Assessments of how drought affects plants and ecosystems lack consistency in scope and methodology, confounding efforts to mechanistically interpret structural and functional impacts and predict future transformations...
Munson, Seth M.; Bradford, John B.; Hultine, Kevin R. Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management
Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing...
Crausbay, Shelley D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Bradford, John; Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Dennison, William C.; Dunham, Jason B.; Enquist, Carolyn Armstrong; Frazier, Abby G. ; Hall, Kimberly R.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Luce, Charlie H.; Palmer, Richard; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Thompson, Laura; Walsh, Brianne M.; Carter, Shawn
Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the...
Bradford, John B.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Mccormick, Molly; Baron, Jill; Bowen, Zack; Bristol, Sky; Carlisle, Daren; Crimmins, Theresa; Cross, Paul; DeVivo, Joe; Dietze, Mike; Freeman, Mary; Goldberg, Jason; Hooten, Mevin; Hsu, Leslie; Jenni, Karen; Keisman, Jennifer L.; Kennen, Jonathan; Lee, Kathy; Lesmes, David; Loftin, Keith; Miller, Brian W.; Murdoch, Peter; Newman, Jana; Prentice, Karen L.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Read, Jordan; Sieracki, Jennifer; Sofaer, Helen; Thur, Steve; Toevs, Gordon; Werner, Francisco; White, C. LeAnn; White, Timothy; Wiltermuth, Mark
Community for data integration 2018 funded project report
The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 10 projects funded in fiscal year 2018, outlining their goals, activities, and accomplishments.
Hsu, Leslie; Andrews, Caitlin M.; Bradford, John B.; Buscombe, Daniel D.; Chase, Katherine J.; Daniel, Wesley M.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Fuller, Pam; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Neilson, Matthew E.; Vraga, Hans W.; Walker, Jessica J.; Walworth, Dennis H.; Warrick, Jonathan; Weltzin, Jake F.; Wieferich, Daniel J.; Wood, Nathan J. Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century
(Bradford) Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperatures and aridity because they are tightly controlled by patterns of moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define...
Bradford, John; Schlaepfer, Daniel Rodolphe; Lauenroth, William K.; Palmquist, Kyle A. Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests
Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity.However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing...
Andrews, Caitlin M.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian; Battaglia, Michael A.; Bradford, John B.
Friday's Findings - November 6 2020
Ecosystems Mission Area and Powell Center:
Opportunities for Ecological Forecasting to Improve Natural Resource Management
Date: November 6, 2020 from 2-2:30 p.m. eastern time
Speakers:
John Bradford, Research Ecologist, USGS Southwest Biological Science Center
Jake Weltzin, Acting Senior Science Advisor,...
Unfamiliar Territory: Emerging Themes for Ecological Drought Research and Management
Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts.
RAMPS Newsletter - Summer 2020 Edition
This season's edition of the Restoration Assessment and Monitoring Program for the Southwest Newsletter contains recent program highlights including research updates, new projects, field updates and more.
To subscribe to our newsletter, please visit: ...
RAMPS Newsletter - Spring 2020 Edition
This season's edition of the Restoration Assessment and Monitoring Program for the Southwest Newsletter contains recent program highlights including research updates from our RestoreNet experiment, recently awarded funding, field updates and more.
To subscribe to our newsletter, please visit: ...
Small-Scale Water Deficits After Wildfires Create Long-Lasting Ecological Impacts
Moisture deficit affects ecological processes and land management interventions, such as restoration of native vegetation.
USGS Press Release: Plant age drives mortality, reproductive success and population dynamics
A USGS press release was published today highlighting a paper describing possible limitations of big sagebrush restoration in the American West after wildfires.
Why Sagebrush Re-establishment After Fire is so Difficult
Big sagebrush ecosystems are particularly sensitive to wildfires and life history information on big sagebrush is scarce and vital for restoration success.
Environmental Factors Affect Success of Sagebrush Reseeding Efforts
In the western U.S., big sagebrush ecosystems provide habitat for about 350 species of conservation concern, but are sensitive to disturbance and are in decline. Big sagebrush ecosystems have low and variable precipitation, which makes restoration a challenge.
Plant Functional Groups Affect Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands
Plant functional groups have contrasting effects on soil water availability by affecting interception, uptake, and transpiration.
Future Temperature and Soil Moisture May Alter Location of Agricultural Regions
Future high temperature extremes and soil moisture conditions may cause some regions to become more suitable for rainfed, or non-irrigated, agriculture, while causing other areas to lose suitable farmland, according to a new U.S. Geological Survey study.
Increasing Aridity and Land-use Overlap Have Potential to Cause Social and Economic Conflict in Dryland Areas
Climate change combined with overlapping high-intensity land uses are likely to create conditions detrimental to the recreation economy, wildlife habitat, water availability and other resources in hyper-arid landscapes, or drylands, in the future, according to a recent paper published in Ecosphere.