Biological Vulnerability to Hypoxia Under a Warmer Climate in the Northern Gulf
USGS researchers are a developing a modeling framework to assess climate warming impacts on hypoxia-related stress to commercially and recreationally important Gulf species.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Every summer since the early 1970s, the northern Gulf’s continental shelf hosts one of the largest coastal hypoxic zones in the world. This low oxygen zone impacts recreationally and commercially important fisheries by diminishing their food resources and habitat, directly affecting the Gulf’s economy. Habitat loss may lead to changes in marine food webs, energy allocation strategies of individual species, and greater vulnerability to fishing mortality. With warming conditions, understanding how temperature and oxygen interact to affect hypoxia tolerance for key species, such as brown shrimp, red drum, and red snapper, is important. However, a modeling framework that evaluates future climate conditions by using up-to-date projections that combine information from regional and global ocean models is not available.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: This project aims to develop a modeling framework to assess climate warming impacts on hypoxia-related stress to commercially and recreationally important Gulf species. Four research activities include: 1) development of historical and downscaled climate projections using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, 2) measurement of metabolic rates of ecological and economically relevant species, 3) evaluation of habitat availability and body size change using the physiological framework with time-series observations, and 4) assessment of how shifts in temperature and dissolved oxygen over the next three decades influences species-specific habitat availability and distributions across space and body size. A Management Transition Advisory Group will be developed to ensure effective collaboration among the team members.
Future Steps: This project hopes to assess how future environmental conditions in the northern Gulf could respond to plausible nutrient reduction strategies in the Mississippi River Basin and the range of outcomes possible to protect the ecological and economic value of the northern Gulf.
USGS researchers are a developing a modeling framework to assess climate warming impacts on hypoxia-related stress to commercially and recreationally important Gulf species.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Every summer since the early 1970s, the northern Gulf’s continental shelf hosts one of the largest coastal hypoxic zones in the world. This low oxygen zone impacts recreationally and commercially important fisheries by diminishing their food resources and habitat, directly affecting the Gulf’s economy. Habitat loss may lead to changes in marine food webs, energy allocation strategies of individual species, and greater vulnerability to fishing mortality. With warming conditions, understanding how temperature and oxygen interact to affect hypoxia tolerance for key species, such as brown shrimp, red drum, and red snapper, is important. However, a modeling framework that evaluates future climate conditions by using up-to-date projections that combine information from regional and global ocean models is not available.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: This project aims to develop a modeling framework to assess climate warming impacts on hypoxia-related stress to commercially and recreationally important Gulf species. Four research activities include: 1) development of historical and downscaled climate projections using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, 2) measurement of metabolic rates of ecological and economically relevant species, 3) evaluation of habitat availability and body size change using the physiological framework with time-series observations, and 4) assessment of how shifts in temperature and dissolved oxygen over the next three decades influences species-specific habitat availability and distributions across space and body size. A Management Transition Advisory Group will be developed to ensure effective collaboration among the team members.
Future Steps: This project hopes to assess how future environmental conditions in the northern Gulf could respond to plausible nutrient reduction strategies in the Mississippi River Basin and the range of outcomes possible to protect the ecological and economic value of the northern Gulf.