The Biscayne Bay and Southeastern Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (BBSEER) project will use Bayesian networks developed within the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis framework but with an expanded set of predicted vegetation types to build a spatially explicit model predicting annual probability of vegetation types in response to hydrologic and other landscape factors.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Ecological modeling is important in facilitating evaluation and assessment of management actions targeted toward ecosystem restoration goals. The Greater Everglades is an internationally important and unique ecosystem that supports many species, provides freshwater to human populations in southern Florida, and serves as a protective buffer against high-intensity storms, such as hurricanes. Restoration planners in the Everglades rely on ecological modeling to forecast the expected responses of key indicator species to proposed projects or management actions. Several upcoming restoration projects will require the use of ecological models to support management decisions and understand project implementation risks under climate change. One of these projects is the Biscayne Bay and Southeastern Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (BBSEER) project. The purpose of the BBSEER project is to (1) improve the quantity, quality, timing, and distribution of freshwater to Biscayne Bay, including Card Sound, Barnes Sound, and Biscayne National Park; 2) improve the natural coastal glades habitat in the Model Lands and Southern Glades; and 3) improve resiliency of these coastal habitats in response to sea level change. Restoration planners for the BBSEER project want to evaluate alternative restoration plans under different sea level rise scenarios to better inform their decisions.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The project will use Bayesian networks developed within the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) framework but with an expanded set of predicted vegetation types to build a spatially explicit model predicting annual probability of vegetation types in response to hydrologic and other landscape factors. This updated model will also be validated and its sensitivity to inputs assessed. The final validated model will use BBSEER alternative restoration and sea level rise scenarios as inputs to generate predictions about the vegetation dynamics that may occur in the future.
Future Steps: The outputs from this modeling effort will be used to provide insight on selecting a preferred restoration plan for the BBSEER project. Additionally, this modeling effort will be used for future restoration projects such as the Southern Everglades Study Project, the Second Periodic Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Update, and the Central Everglades Planning Project South.
- Overview
The Biscayne Bay and Southeastern Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (BBSEER) project will use Bayesian networks developed within the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis framework but with an expanded set of predicted vegetation types to build a spatially explicit model predicting annual probability of vegetation types in response to hydrologic and other landscape factors.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.A diagram of the hydrologic and landscape-level variables that determine the annual predicted vegetation type within the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) Vegetation module. The Science Issue and Relevance: Ecological modeling is important in facilitating evaluation and assessment of management actions targeted toward ecosystem restoration goals. The Greater Everglades is an internationally important and unique ecosystem that supports many species, provides freshwater to human populations in southern Florida, and serves as a protective buffer against high-intensity storms, such as hurricanes. Restoration planners in the Everglades rely on ecological modeling to forecast the expected responses of key indicator species to proposed projects or management actions. Several upcoming restoration projects will require the use of ecological models to support management decisions and understand project implementation risks under climate change. One of these projects is the Biscayne Bay and Southeastern Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (BBSEER) project. The purpose of the BBSEER project is to (1) improve the quantity, quality, timing, and distribution of freshwater to Biscayne Bay, including Card Sound, Barnes Sound, and Biscayne National Park; 2) improve the natural coastal glades habitat in the Model Lands and Southern Glades; and 3) improve resiliency of these coastal habitats in response to sea level change. Restoration planners for the BBSEER project want to evaluate alternative restoration plans under different sea level rise scenarios to better inform their decisions.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Maps of predicted vegetation type along the coastal southern Everglades under current conditions in the years 2000, 2009, and 2017 (top row) and under a high seal level rise scenario (bottom row). Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The project will use Bayesian networks developed within the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) framework but with an expanded set of predicted vegetation types to build a spatially explicit model predicting annual probability of vegetation types in response to hydrologic and other landscape factors. This updated model will also be validated and its sensitivity to inputs assessed. The final validated model will use BBSEER alternative restoration and sea level rise scenarios as inputs to generate predictions about the vegetation dynamics that may occur in the future.
Future Steps: The outputs from this modeling effort will be used to provide insight on selecting a preferred restoration plan for the BBSEER project. Additionally, this modeling effort will be used for future restoration projects such as the Southern Everglades Study Project, the Second Periodic Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan Update, and the Central Everglades Planning Project South.