Hydrologic scenarios and ecological model output used to explore potential sea-level rise scenarios on ecological models used in Everglades restoration planning

One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is occurring in the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both agriculture and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades encompasses the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted by climate-induced sea-level rise. However, currently, many project planning studies do not formally incorporate the potential impacts of sea-level rise when evaluating restoration plan outcomes. Resource managers and project planners require methods and tools to confidently incorporate scenarios of sea-level rise into their evaluations. This effort demonstrates how incorporating sea-level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration project planning can help managers decide whether projects will maintain or improve the ecological integrity of this critical system and ensure water availability for wildlife and humans. The following model outputs were generated to explore how sea-level rise may impact ecological models: two sea-level rise scenarios (an intermediate scenario of 53 cm and a high scenario of 152 cm) using the BISECT hydrodynamic model, and the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis vegetation sub-model outputs generated using the baseline, intermediate, and high sea-level rise hydrologic scenarios. We also provide R code used to visualize the outputs.