Projected Seafloor Elevation Change and Relative Sea Level Rise along the Florida Reef Tract from Miami to Boca Chica Key 25, 50, 75, and 100 Years from 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted research to quantify bathymetric changes along the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) from Miami to Boca Chica Key, Florida. Changes in seafloor elevation were calculated from the 1930s to 2016 using digitized hydrographic sheet sounding data and light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) acquired by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2016 and 2017. Most of the elevation data from the 2016/2017 time period were collected during 2016, and, as an abbreviated naming convention, this time period was referred to as 2016. An elevation change analysis between the 1930s and 2016 data was performed to quantify and map historical impacts to seafloor elevation and to determine elevation-change statistics for 15 habitat types found within the study area along the FRT. Annual elevation-change rates were calculated for each elevation-change data point. Seafloor elevation-change along the FRT was projected 25, 50, 75 and 100 years from 2016 using these historical annual rates of elevation change. Water depth was projected 25, 50, 75 and 100 years from 2016 using historical rates of annual elevation change plus 2016 local sea level rise data from NOAA. Data were collected under Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary permit FKNMS-2016-068.