What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?  

Los Angeles area:

Within the next 30 years the probability is:

  • 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7
  • 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7
  • 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5

will occur in the Los Angeles region.

San Francisco Bay area:

Within the next 30 years the probability is:

  • 72% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7
  • 51% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7
  • 20% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5

will occur in the San Francisco region.

Learn More:

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3

Related Content

Filter Total Items: 13

What is a seismic zone, or seismic hazard zone?

Although you may hear the terms “seismic zone” and “seismic hazard zone” used interchangeably, they really describe two slightly different things. A seismic zone is used to describe an area where earthquakes tend to focus; for example, the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the Central United States. A seismic hazard zone describes an area with a...
Filter Total Items: 14
Map of known active geologic faults in the San Francisco Bay region

Map of known active geologic faults in the San Francisco Bay region

Map of known active geologic faults in the San Francisco Bay region, California, including the Hayward Fault.  The 72 percent probability of a magnitude (M) 6.7 or greater earthquake in the region includes well-known major plate-boundary faults, lesser-known faults, and unknown faults.  The percentage shown within each colored circle is the probability that a M 6.7 or

...
Image: Full View of the San Andreas Fault

Full View of the San Andreas Fault

Full view of the ground with the San Andreas fault running through the middle of the image. A 30 foot steam offset from the 1857 earthquake can be seen near the right edge of the image.

Attribution: Natural Hazards