Projecting and Modeling Ecosystem Change
Projecting and Modeling Ecosystem Change
Modeling how species respond to ecosystem change is a powerful method of forecasting future ecosystems. PIERC forecasts how climate change may affect the future distribution of over 1000 species of plants and 20 species of forest birds in Hawaii. Effectively capturing species interactions is a necessary step towards the development of functional models that forecast ecosystem responses.
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Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
We created detailed classification maps of native and non-native plants on Lāna‘i by combining high-resolution WorldView-2 satellite imagery with ground-collected data. We used the high-resolution maps and historical satellite and aerial imagery to analyze changes in ‘ua‘u—Hawaiian petrel, Pterodroma sandwichensis—nesting habitat. For the first time at island scales in Hawai’i, this species-level...
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...
Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Initial studies suggest terrestrial Hawaiian plant species may be vulnerable to climate change. However, these models lack information on species-specific traits that affect ecological and evolutionary responses of species to climate change. Research is needed to refine current vulnerability models and apply these to Pacific Islands outside Hawai‘i.
Adaptation in Montane Plants
Montane plant communities in widely separated intact natural environments of the world have responded to changes in precipitation and temperature regimes by shifting both margins and core distributional ranges upward in elevation. Reduced evapotranspiration rates in cooler climate zones at higher elevation may compensate for less precipitation and higher temperatures within species’ former ranges...
Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Plants and Cultural Sites
One of the impacts of global climate change for the Hawaiian Islands is a projected increase in sea level of about one meter by the year 2100. This change will impact both biological and cultural resources located along the coastline. Few intact native coastal and lowland plant communities remain in Hawai‘i. Many of those that remain contain listed endangered species and provide important habitat...
Monitoring Hawaiian Biodiversity: Changes to forest birds and their habitat
Hawaiian forests are beset by many stressors, resulting in a complex pattern of altered ecosystems, impeirled species, and (in some areas) substantial protection and restoration. Short-term studies focused on specific sites or biota have limited value in understanding landscape-level change. Long-term and spatialy extensive data are needed to understand how ecosystems are reacting to both stressor...