Determining low-flow conditions at select streams to Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor as the first step towards the development of ecological-flow targets

Maintaining streamflow to support human water needs and ecosystem services requires a fundamental understanding of the relations between changes in streamflow processes and ecosystem responses. Changes in the natural patterns in flow, geology, and topography alter the habitats that aquatic organisms rely on for food, shelter, and reproduction. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented an ecological-flow framework that encapsulates the basic principles of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) to compare the relations between hydrologic metrics and stream conditions and estimate ecological flow needs in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed. As a first step in the ELOHA process, streamflow from two historical time periods (occurring between 1933 and 1988) was compared to streamflow for a recent time period (from 2004-2020) for four major streams in the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor watershed (North Branch Metedeconk River, Toms River, Cedar Creek, and Westecunk Creek), to evaluate if there were statistically significant differences in streamflow metrics. Analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual low-flow metrics; patterns in the streamflow record; and general land-use changes were used to develop a better understanding of flow conditions in the watershed.

The comparative streamflow analysis indicated that notable changes in flow processes for the study streams occurred between the three periods of record (PORs) evaluated in this study: period of record 1 (POR1, from water years 1933–1958), period of record 2 (POR2, from water years 1974–1988), and period of record 3 (POR3, from water years 2004–2020). For example, the mean of the daily streamflow decreased between the historical POR to the current POR in Cedar Creek but increased in North Branch Metedeconk and Toms Rivers. Larger and more significant changes (p-value