Uncertainties: local change - How will climate change affect the timing of fish spawning? (image 1)

Circular calendar charts showing the projected effects of climate change on the onset and end of spawning for the American Shad and the Striped Bass in the Hudson River Estuary, during two modeling periods: 1950 to 2012 and 2012 to 2099. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 were used to model spawning for each species in each period. RCP are scenarios constructed to represent how well we can curb and contain greenhouse gas emissions. RCP 2.6 implements the most aggressive strategies, while RCP 8.5 is ‘business-as-usual'. The model results show increasing effects on spawning onset and end dates with less aggressive RCP. For the 2012 to 2099 model period, spawning is projected to start 15 days earlier on average than during the 1950 to 2012 period. The magnitude of the shift ranges from approximately 4 days for RCP 2.6 to over 20 days early for RCP 8.5.

Created by Ellie White