PubTalk-10/2021: Zombie Salmon and Ghost Moose

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Zombie Salmon and Ghost Moose - The Spooky Implications of Climate Change

By Laura Thompson & Abigail Lynch, USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center

  • The National Climate Adaptation Science Center works on research to help avoid some scary scenarios for fish and wildlife.
  • Learn how warming weather and shorter winters trap moose in a never-ending creepy crawly season.
  • For fish, higher water temperatures can make long distance migrations even more of a haunted maze.
  • While there is no magic spell, the more we understand these frightening impacts, the better we can prepare and adapt to avoid a grim future for fish and wildlife.

October 28th, 2021, at 7:00PM (PDT)

Details

Date Taken:

Length: 00:47:56

Location Taken: US

Transcript

Hello and thank you for joining us

tonight because their monthly public

lecture my name is Miss Chaddlesone and

I over your host and moderator today.

Before I introduce our speakers,

have a couple of announcements to make.

First, we have a very

interesting lecture next month.

Mike Poland, scientists in charge,

the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

will give his talk entitled busting

myths about one of the largest

volcanic systems in the world.

The top ten misconceptions.

About Yellowstone volcanism.

So please join us on November 18th,

2021 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time for that talk.

Towards the end of the lecture we will

open it up to question and answer session.

If you have a question for the speakers,

you can submit them through

the Q&A chat window.

To find the Q&A chat window,

look for the question Mark icon in the

upper right hand corner of your screen.

This will bring out the Q&A panel

where you can type in your questions.

Please understand that we may not have

time to answer all your questions.

And we appreciate you understanding

that in advance.

And now it's time to introduce

you to our speakers.

Tonight we have two speakers,

Laura Thompson and Abigail Lynch from the

USGS National Climatic Adaptation Center.

They will talk about zombie

salmon and ghost moose.

The spooky implications of climate change.

Abigail Lynch is a research fish

biologist with EU S Geological Survey's

national Climatic Adaptation Center.

Abby conduct science and science synthesis on

the impacts of global change to inland fish.

Fish is you had local,

national,

and global scales,

while Abby enjoys Halloween.

She's not a great fan of scary rides,

much to her parents chagrin,

she wants almost refused to go on

the Haunted Mansion ride at Disney.

Laura Thompson is a research ecologist

with EU S Geological Survey's

national Climatic Adaptation Center.

She focuses on climate change vulnerability,

a species particularly big game

and works with practitioners to

respond to potential impacts.

Unlike Abby, Laura love the Haunted Mansion.

Whatever years later,

she almost spit off her fist while

writing the Tower of Terror.

And with that Abby, the floor is all yours.

OK well thanks all for the opportunity

to present to you this evening.

And as you can see we are taking the

Halloween theme here quite seriously,

but mostly we do want to share with

you some work from our program at

the within the climate Adaptation

Science Center network.

And as I couldn't find a way to work

in my very favorite Halloween movie,

hocus pocus into our presentation this

evening, you'll just have to settle for.

Be wearing a witch hat for

the first half of the talk.

I'm so to get things started.

Uhm,

and set the stage for our presentation today.

We are really going to try and

run with this Halloween theme

tonight so so get ready.

The premise of our presentation

will be that the oops,

let's see here the the national

climate Adaptation Science Center

works to help avoid some

scary scenarios for fish,

wildlife and related organisms such as being.

Chased by Jack here and ending up like this,

zombie fish is one of those scary scenarios

that that we really want to try to avoid.

So I'm going to run through a

quick tool to show you how we can

look at some rising the impacts to

help with research planning and

adapt adaptation for the future.

And then on the wildlife side,

Laura is going to run through.

As is going to showcase,

kind of how to examine this,

this poor ghost Muse who is haunted

by ticks in warming winters and

and Laurel will run through that

example shortly and then to end

will hopefully try to conclude.

On a brighter note,

looking towards adaptation

planning for the future.

So first just a bit of

background on our program.

We are the with EU S Geological Survey's

climate adaptation science centers.

Our vision is still deliver science

to help fish, wildlife, water,

land and people adapt to a changing climate.

And our focus is on adept

impacts and adaptation.

So this essentially amounts to

helping managers protect our public

lands and natural resources.

Collaborating with tribes and indigenous

communities to prepare for climate

risks and educating and training

the next generation of scientists.

There are nine regional adaptation

science centers and one National

Center within our network.

These are federal university

partnerships with the federal

director and a university lead,

and they're often consortium based.

We are a partnership driven program that

teams scientists with with natural and

cultural resource managers and other local

communities to help fish wildlife waters.

And lands across the country

adapt to changing conditions.

Both Laura and I work at the national

climate Adaptation Science Center,

which is based at USGS

headquarters out of Reston VA.

RR Center serves as the National Office

for the Cask Network and provides

leadership and guidance on administration,

partnerships,

information management and communication,

and in addition to its kind of

management capacities or center

also conducts research on cross,

regional,

and National Science priorities.

So this is where Laura and I fit in where

the the lead terrestrial and aquatic

research scientists at the national

climate Adaptation Science Center,

and as we mentioned,

Laura is a research ecologist and she

focuses on the responses of terrestrial

species to changes in climate and she.

Her research really works with the

management community to provide science

based information to assist with

decision making regarding adaptation.

Dance,

and she's also known to step

out every now and again as a as

a flapper on All Hallows Eve,

and among her favorite companions

when she does,

is Merlin and Buzz as pictured here.

And I'm I'm a research fish biologist,

and so as as Mitch mentioned,

I I connect science and science

synthesis on the impacts of global

change on inland fishes and my work

really aims to inform conservation and

sustainable used and assist fishers,

managers and other practitioners

adapt to change and again keeping

with the Halloween theme.

This is one of my costumes back from grad

school where I went as the Sun maid,

Raisin girl and my now.

Husband went as the Jolly Green Giant

and it was actually pretty fun.

We went as a whole group themed

costume where a lot of us went

as either food or product related

characters so you might see snap,

crackle and pop in the back there.

Or maybe the brownie tell a man

or Captain Morgan or the Honey

Cheerios be in the front and among

all the other costumes.

So starting with the with the

fish side of our talk I'd I'd say

that chances are when.

People think of scary fish.

Jaws might be what comes to mind,

but my work is actually more on the

side of thinking what might be scary

for fish from a climate change angle

and mostly from a freshwater perspective.

So this indelible image of a shark

doesn't really quite apply to my work.

Come in my line of work,

I'm more interested in in something

like this.

Sami salmon and salmon have pretty

fascinating life cycle where they

hatch and fresh waters and make

their way downstream and spend most

of their lives out in the ocean.

But then they have this innate drive

to come back to the exact same streams

where they are hatched and spawn and die.

And if you've ever had an opportunity

to see a spawning run in action,

they're they're pretty amazing.

Feats of nature, and sometimes

these these seamen who haven't

eaten since they entered freshwater,

do look pretty battered up and

kind of like a zombie swimming.

They are basically dead fish

sewing once they've spawned,

and it is quite common to still see

them swimming around without their

eyeballs and part of their their

flesh being falling off their bodies.

Kind of very much like a zombie,

and I'm not really sure why it happens,

but often.

Birds will will preferentially

pick up their rifles,

and so I'm not sure if that's

because the eyes are more nutritious,

or maybe they're just easy,

easier to to pick out, but.

But yeah,

they really do look like zombie fish.

And so while these salmon do

die naturally after spawning,

they can carry multiple infections that

can be accelerated with warming waters.

And these infections can actually

affect how long the salmon can survive.

And by consequence,

their reproductive fitness,

meaning how many offspring

they can ultimately have.

So this disease kind of consequence is

what we would call an emergent property.

And these are just kind of

the ecological components of a

community which included the

connections and interactions among

species and assemblages that,

when viewed altogether,

are more than the sum of their parts.

And so this concept of the whole.

Is greater than the sum of its

parts is something that we're all

generally quite familiar with,

but these holistic properties of

aquatic communities are often hard

to predict when you just study the

individual attributes in isolation.

So while climate change may not

necessarily manifest like the

day after tomorrow,

we do still wonder what will happen to

these emergent properties because of it.

And,

well,

we know it can modify these properties

and kind of reshuffle species and

communities across the aquatic landscapes.

Changing species distributions.

There ranges phenology,

which means essentially the timing

of key life, history, traits,

and events,

among other kind of population dynamics.

And so we also know that fresh

water systems are particularly

vulnerable to climate change.

Freshwater ecosystems make up just

about 1% of the planet surface,

but their home to about a third

of all vertebrate species,

and about 10% of all species.

And since 1973,

freshwater biodiversity has really

dropped by over 80% and all,

and this is a result of climate change

and other anthropogenic stresses.

And so I kind of feel like we're

at the part of the movie signs

where we know something is wrong

and we know something is coming,

but we still don't know what to

do about it other than maybe put

a foil cap on our heads and it can

feel overwhelming in that we see

climate change on the horizon,

but we don't necessarily feel

like we have enough information

to help aquatic systems to adapt.

And so right now I'm going to run

very briefly to through a tool.

That we've developed at USGS to give

a bit more agency to researchers

and students and and managers to

help inform decisions related

to natural resource management,

and especially because natural

resource managers do have to manage

fish populations regardless of whether

or not they can do it in a science

based way as much as we don't like to

think about that in that context and so.

This all kind of started when we were

getting some queries and requests from

people within our climate adaptation

Science Center network and also

from other colleagues and students.

Everyone was wondering if we had any

resources to help answer these questions

about climate impacts to fresh water systems,

and we realized that we could make

our work much more accessible to help

others with their their their needs.

And so we developed what we call

the fish and climate change.

Database or physically for shorthand.

This project began back in about

2014 with the aim to conduct an

assessment on the impacts of climate

change on freshwater fish is.

And we we set the sidebars that we only

wanted to examine first documented

impacts on North American freshwater fish,

and then we expanded the scope to

also include global studies and

projected responses. Uhm, we did.

We have done this as a systematic

literature review and have compiled it

into a publicly searchable database.

And so some systematic literature

reviews are are a model that is used

quite frequently in the medical field.

And while Rosemary's baby may have

been an extremely special case,

pregnant women and other vulnerable

human populations are often not subject

to medical experiments for ethical reasons,

but doctors can still use existing

data and synthesis and meta analysis

to assist with making informed

health decisions even for these

most vulnerable groups.

Similarly,

we can apply.

Being sort of logic for ecologically

vulnerable and understudied groups,

and we could use data synthesis and meta

analysis to assist with climate adaptation

and conservation and sustainable management.

For example,

for freshwater systems.

Again,

because management decisions are

going to be made regardless of

whether or not the information more

information is available or not.

So, uhm, so to our knowledge,

quickly is the most comprehensive

global data set of detailed information

on documented and projected impacts

of climate change on freshwater

fish that's extracted from the peer

reviewed literature in English,

published between 1985 and 2020.

The database can be filtered a

in a number of different ways,

based on taxonomic or biological or

physical or ecological information,

or even.

Uhm,

geographic parameters including also

different climate change response types.

And this is just a very quick summary

of all the responses and quickly

by the different category types.

And users can define specific

queries for increasing specificity

and quickly for the

output to provide kind of the most

relevant information you can to

address management relevant questions.

But beyond just compiling these studies,

we wanted to also provide

additional summary tools.

To assist with these users making

the usability of of this data state

set for others so just to run

through a few quick summary stats

for across the ethically database.

There are 843 studies currently in thickly

these represent 58 different fish families.

There are 392 focal species or subspecies

or assemblages there are present.

In the database and this is across

over 1400 responses and these could

be parsed into a number of different

categories and this is just a

handful of the different management

recommendations that are affiliated with

those different climate change studies.

So uhm,

once you filter the database as you want,

there are a bunch of different output

tabs and options to download tables

with all of the information from the

different studies and you can parse

things out by different management

recommendations with the interactive

decision tree and then one of the

new features that that we're looking

to release with our next update is

a confidence metrics tab where users

can kind of select their own evidence

threshold and it can dynamically.

Display their filtered papers by

response type and you can indicate

it'll show if there's high,

medium or low agreement among the

different studies with robust,

medium, or limited evidence.

And we're just starting to scratch

the surface really with all of these

analytical capabilities with this,

this broad data set and and expanding

each year and the opportunities are

really exciting because we see this

fitting into a number of upcoming

assessment process seized,

such as the national climate assessment.

And this is just one example,

showing a preliminary graph of the top

20 species in the database that are

plotted by the proportion of positive

responses to climate change with the

size of the bubble being the number

of responses present in physically

and the color coding being related to

the thermal preferences for the species.

And so it just looking at this

at a very coarse scale the the

warm water species are all shown,

kind of in the upper right.

Of the graph and that you can roughly

equate to being that the warm water

species are likely to have more positive

responses to climate change than

that cool and colder water species.

And lastly,

just to end here,

I wanted to flag one more communication

related tool that we have related

to this database thanks to some

other colleagues at USGS,

Sarah Burton and Jordan Bush.

We've recently released a USGS

story map on thickly and these are

just some screenshots that that

will that show the features,

but everything is fully interactive

when you go to the website,

and with that I'm going to

pass things over to Laura.

Thank you Abby.

Screen.

Think I'm sharing here?

OK, so now we're going to move on

and talk about the ghost moose.

Sorry, just a second here. OK, Yep,

Yep, so now we're going to go ahead

and talk about the ghost moose.

So just to give you a little bit

of background on moose in general,

most people are probably

familiar with this species.

It's a large bodied Organism

that's found in northern portions

of North America typically where

temperatures don't exceed 75

degrees for long periods of time.

They also found in close proximity

to wetlands and also.

A mixture of old growth forests

with older trees that provide

cover within early successional

habitat or kind of open areas

that provide growth and vegetation

that's optimal for porridge.

This map shows the distribution of

moose throughout North America and

you may notice that the majority of

the range occurs in Canada and Alaska

in the contiguous United States,

moves extend down into the Rocky Mountains.

This is the Shirase moves, sub species,

and then in the Midwest we have the Ender

so nice sub species which occurs in

Minnesota and Upper Peninsula of Michigan,

sometimes in North Dakota.

And then the northeastern US,

where we have the intercept Americana,

sub species in Maine, New Hampshire,

Vermont into New York,

sometimes down into Massachusetts.

So come in the last few years,

there have been some really really strange

sightings in the Jackson Wyoming area as

well as other areas in the most range.

Residents and Jackson have noticed moose.

Having being whitish in color,

missing large swaths of her.

And it's very, very strange,

and so the the National Park Service Grand

Titon National Park has started doing

surveys of moose that look like this,

taking pictures and analyzing

their hair loss patterns.

The picture on the right shows how some

of these pictures are analyzed where

we have the red area where the worst

hair loss is a curd in the blue, some

damage and then the green not so much damage.

Push when you're taking random pictures

like this and a large remote area,

you sometimes get these

unusual pictures as well,

and I have my theories about this I.

I don't know, but this is my prediction,

but I'll just leave it at that.

That's a tangent.

Sorry Laura, can you re share your desktop?

Your presentation seemed to.

Have disappeared,

OK, let's see here.

Is it working now? Oh yes. OK, so uhm.

So just going back and analyzing the

severity of her loss, going from mild.

The ghost moves and kind of a.

A scale of one to five,

one being no hair loss.

Uh, and then to being you know 5 to 20%

hair loss up to 80% hair loss for severe.

Hair loss damage to the coat and then,

UM, greater than 80%.

Hair loss or damage to

the code is considered.

What we would call a ghost moves.

So the culprit for this we actually I

kind of had a little suspense there,

but we actually know what's

causing this hair loss and that's

a parasite called the winter tick,

and so these pictures on the

right show fully engorged winter

ticks that have have fallen off

moves after a winter of feeding.

The picture on the bottom right is a

female engorged winter tick in her egg

mask and then the picture on the top

right is recently hatched larva from

winter tick larva in a laboratory setting.

So this map shows the winter tick

occurrences related to the moose range,

so the moves the blue circles

represent the moves occurrences and

then the green dots represent them.

Winter tick occurrences,

and while some winter tick.

The winter take this solution

is somewhat incomplete.

We know that they've been found as far

north as Yukon in Canada and and you

may notice on this map that they're

they occur pretty frequently in.

At least the three areas where moves are

found in the contiguous United States,

including the Rocky Mountains,

the Midwestern states like

Minnesota and then northeast.

So this diagram shows the winter tick

lifecycle and how it relates to climate,

and I'll explain how it

relates to climate change.

So starting with the the large

black tick in the middle and going

to the right, that this is a.

What we would consider a

large female fooling gorged?

Take that disengages from a moose in

the spring and falls to the ground.

This tick will will lay her

eggs either in grass or snow,

depending on the conditions.

Come and then when the eggs hatch,

they become larva and then later

in the fall they'll actually crawl

out onto the blades of inside

blades of grass or other vegetation

and stick their front legs out.

Waiting for a moose to walk by so

they can climb aboard and began

feeding and the next cycle of there.

Their life cycle,

and so they'll they'll feed on the the moose,

come in into the into the fall,

and then we'll transition into Nantz

and then eventually become adults and

then the lack spend the winter on the

moose and then the life cycle starts over.

So how this relates to climate change

timing of spring snowmelt can affect

survival of tick abundance later in the fall.

So if a lot of the female ticks fall

off the the moose in the spring kind

of in an unfavorable conditions,

maybe not so much so.

And in the northeast where the

snow doesn't get quite as deep,

but maybe in areas like the Mountain West,

where you can have several

feet of snow in the spring,

particularly higher elevations.

Could affect survival and successful egling.

And ultimately tick loads later on.

And then also as you go later

into the fall if the timing of the

first snowfall is very important.

So if that snowfall comes much

later in the year in the fall,

then that means the ticks or questing

for much longer period of time and then

moves as they walk around and no snow,

no snow.

They're just going to keep

accumulating ticks on their body

and so they go into the winter with

these much higher tick loads.

So that's typically bad for moves.

At the same time,

hotter and drier falls may decrease

survival of winter tick larvae,

which which could be a good a good.

This map shows the UM.

Population dynamics of moose

throughout the the North America,

and this is an older map and older estimates

a lot of these change from year to year.

But to get that idea,

you'll probably notice that there are

a lot of red boxes which indicate

decreasing population abundance.

A notable decline has occurred

in the state of Minnesota.

They were typically two

populations in Minnesota.

In the past, the northwest

population in northeast population.

The northwest population is pretty

much collapsed in the northeast.

Population is showing major

signs of decline in winter.

Take is certainly playing a role.

Here is weather as well as other diseases,

which I'll mention briefly in a minute.

Also, in the northeast,

winter tick is particularly.

An issue in New Hampshire,

specifically in some captured animals

have had as many as 60,000 ticks.

On on them at one time after a winter,

so you can imagine.

These mistakes get pretty large the the

females can get as large as a great,

so if you have 60,000 S thousand on on you.

How much blood loss might occur,

so pads coming out of the first letter?

There's so much blood that they

actually become anemic or go

into protein shock and then die,

so this is a major source of mortality

in some areas of the Northeast.

And I mentioned other factors

are also in play in climate.

Change is playing a role, for example,

pathogens and parasites such as brain worm,

which is a parasite that's

found in white tailed deer.

It's not lethal to deer,

but as deer move farther north,

with winners becoming less severe.

Shorter winters, dear Orient,

are interacting more with moose within the

range and then spreading this parasite

and went and it is lethal to move.

So this is an issue.

Heat stress has also been

documented as a potential issue.

Concerns are related to the fact

that Moose may spend more time

thermoregulating trying to cool

themselves off rather than feeding and

building up at reserves for the winter.

So there are a number of factors

potentially that could be leading

to some of these news declines.

In addition to winner YG.

So because of some of these concerns,

the national climate Adaptation Science

Center has sponsored several studies.

Related to just understanding baseline

genetic diversity information as

well as how winter ticks may survive

in different areas of the country

and then some adaptation work

that I'll talk about at the end.

Starting with some of the

molecular ecology work we've done,

we teamed up with the USGS Wetland

and Aquatic Research Center Dr.

Margaret Hunter and Doctor Jason Ferrante,

who were actually molecular ecologists

who worked mostly on manatees in Florida,

as well as Burmese pythons.

We were able to collect a number of new

samples throughout the range in the lower 48,

including the Rocky Mountains,

Minnesota in New Hampshire.

Yes, we were able to calculate genetic

structure and this wasn't too surprising.

We each of the three different sampled

areas represent three different sub species,

so we expected to see some genetic structure

here within within the Rocky Mountains

there was a little bit more structure.

You may notice in the green

circle the Suraci moves.

There's a little bit more.

Variation among individuals.

Simply noted by the Peach,

orange and green dots.

Overall, although we did see declining

genetic diversity at the southernmost

parts of the distribution, it was not.

There were no signs of inbreeding,

so this is definitely a good sign.

Given some of these declines that

we've seen in certain areas.

Also, so we've been working

with the USGS Northern Rocky

Mountain with Science Center Dr.

Paul Krause and Troy Kozar,

who's a PhD student at

Montana State University.

They have some collaborators that

have been studying potential local

adaptations of winter fix collected

from both Maine and Wyoming,

which has preliminary results.

Suggest that some of these tix are locally

adapted to different climate variables,

so the ticks sampled in Maine did not

survive really extreme temperature

conditions that the tickets from.

While we did and this is concerning

given with warming temperatures,

particularly as they warm

farther and farther north,

how much of an issue when are ticks

could become as as climate warms,

going north into Canada and

Alaska and so forth.

So Paul and Troy,

or working on a microhabitat experiments

that are specific to climate

conditions and Intermountain West.

They're focusing on the

apost stages of ticks,

so after the females fall off the moose,

the conditions that they typically

encounter when the females fall

on the ground when they lay

their eggs from the larva hatch,

and when they start questing.

These are all factors that have the

potential to be greatly affected by

different climate variables and so

they want to understand what life

stages might maybe most sensitive

to different climate variables.

So they've set up a number of

sampling locations around the Jackson,

Wyoming,

Wyoming area that represent different

or that are different elevations

and land cover conditions and

within these different.

Locations we've set up a number

of replicate stations monitoring

stations like the diagram shown here.

Where we have these wire pages filled

with files and in each file we have

an engorged female winter tick and

then it's fitted with a temperature

and relative humidity logger as

well as a snow depth stick and then

these are monitored throughout the

early spring and into the summer.

In each cage is wrapped with different

type of coverings to simulate different.

Emulate different warming conditions

and so hopefully from this experiment.

This is still.

This is ongoing.

This is finishing up the field

season from of this now as this fall

will hopefully have some results

and better understand how ticks can

survive under a variety of different

conditions and what factors may limit

or facilitate their ability to lay eggs.

And successfully quest and find a

host for the winter and this can also

help managers better predict what.

Climate,

climatic,

and environmental factors may

precipitate a good or bad tick here.

So uhm, kind of going back to Jack

Nicholson back to the beginning,

the national climate

Adaptation Science Center.

Here we work on research to

help avoid some of this theory

scenarios for Fish and Wildlife.

Tools like, basically the Abbey talked

about can help inform climate adaptation

planning for salmon and other fish.

On the wildlife side,

we have strategies that can help

move some deal with the haunted.

Conditions related to warming and ticks.

So you may be wondering,

we have all of these impacts.

So what actually can humans do to

respond to some of these impacts?

And there are kind of two general

responses that we often refer to

and one is climate mitigation.

When this is the actually addressing the

underlying drivers of climate change and

then climate adaptation with direct,

which is addresses responses to

current or future impacts directly.

And these are often viewed

as two sides of a coin,

but they're not really alternative actions.

Instead they should be viewed

as complementary actions.

Here at USGS 'cause we don't

focus on policy or regulation,

we come in because adaptation

we know it's necessary.

Given that results several

studies have suggested that many

of these climate change impacts

may already be irreversible,

so climate adaptation is extremely important,

and that's what we focus on here

at the adaptation science centers.

So one example of climate

adaptation for salmon.

So say in the Pacific Northwest where we

have salmon coming into streams to spawn.

One issue is that when you,

with climate change is there are all

kinds of other stressors that affect.

Salmon populations and

their ability to reproduce.

But if you can reduce.

Some human cost stressors,

such as habitat degradation.

They maybe have more ability to

respond to climate change impacts.

01 climate adaptation strategies

reducing these stressors,

such as removing upstream barriers,

restoring response stream flow regimes,

reducing erosion.

Also, we can help try to minimize

exposure and streams by increasing

forest cover in riparian areas to

provide shade or in cases where.

Planting may not be feasible at this picture.

On the right,

we can construct artificial structures

like these logjams that can provide

thermal refuge and help salmon better

cope with these warming streams.

Moose in winner take side,

one of the best strategies to help

minimize impacts of the winter tickets

controlling moose densities wherever

you have high densities of moose,

which typically typically

occurs in good habitats,

you're more likely going to have a larger

number of winter ticks 'cause where you

have moved your going to have ticks,

and so that's how managers generally respond.

To these issues,

to try to reduce tick loads so spreading

their own habitats to different.

So moves can kind of dispersed

and use different areas.

I can kind of help reduce

some of these issues.

The same time there's a lot of uncertainty

with identifying adaptation strategies.

We don't always know how climate

scenarios are going to play out.

We can predict or project,

but we don't know how it will play out.

Script,

particularly in different environments.

And come in the Northeast,

there's a large portion of

forests that are privately owned,

and so we don't know how private land

owners are going to manage their lands,

but it's not always easy to predict.

Some may decide to keep all their

land in old growth forests,

and they want to clear it off some they open.

Provide openings which are ideal for moves,

so with all this uncertainty

sometimes to make adaptation

decisions we have to utilize tools

like scenario planning which is a

tool that helps develop a suite of

plausible scenarios so managers can

make decisions given there maybe.

Cerebral,

plausible futures and so we teamed

up with Doctor Molly crossed at the

Wildlife Conservation Society to

develop some scenarios for moose and

winter ticks in the northeastern U S

and two main drivers have changed that.

We identified for this area where

temperature changes and then

changes enforce complexity and

by force complexity I mean.

Changes from old growth,

either all little growth or all clear cuts,

which is low forest complexity

to more of a mixture which has

higher force complexity.

So under these two drivers which are seen

on the the two vertical and horizontal axes,

we can actually come up with four

different scenarios for moves in

the region and then managers ideally

can develop adaptation actions

that might be robust under these.

These different scenarios,

so on the bottom right is one of the

best case scenarios for moves where

you have small temperature increases,

high forest complexity that's new serve

on a going in the top right corner.

We have high floors complexity,

but high temperature increases.

That's that's a recipe for moose.

That's why we call Earth ticks.

I'm sorry that's what we call it.

Tick tick boom.

And then on the left two quadrants

we have lower floors,

complexity and small and

large temperature increases.

The wave labeled either slow

and steady decline or by moose.

So this is just kind of a general

idea of some tools that we can use.

To help inform some of these adaptation

decisions under climate change and

dealing with some of these impacts.

Thank you very much.

I miss you.

Sorry about that.

And it would not OK.

There we go, sorry I was on mute.

Want to thank Abby and Laura.

That was a great talk.

We are now open for the question

and answer portion of this lecture.

Uhm, we have been monitoring questions and.

We can use some more actually,

so if you like to ask a question,

remember to click on the Q&A chat window.

Look for the question mark in the

upper right hand corner of the screen.

And you can submit your questions.

OK question I had is. This some.

Kick issue also prevalent in other

animals like deer or moose or bison or.

You know Big Horn sheep

for that type of thing.

It does occur on other animals.

It doesn't seem to be as big of an issue,

and I've heard different theories why,

for example, dear apparently

there's social groomers so their

family members will help plug the

ticks off for whatever reason.

It tends to be primarily a major

issue on moose as far as we know.

OK, uhm. This is the first folks, I'm not.

We don't have any questions.

You must have done such a great job

that no one has anything else to say.

Give everybody a couple of minutes here.

So you folks don't have questions

or the the app isn't working.

OK well thank thank you again to

Abby and Laura for your talk today.

And Mitch, it does look

like there's one question.

I think they came through on.

Oh yeah, there is. I just saw it.

OK, sorry I haven't.

I'm having I'm having

multiple screen issues here.

Uhm question is,

are there any of efforts to

work with private land owners

on cancel on conservation?

And I'll leave that to either one of you.

I, I'm pretty sure there are the

states are probably a better.

Sad. Outlet to ask about this

'cause I know they they work

more regularly with land owners.

I know when we had some workshops

and New York State around the.

Batter on deck park.

Definitely there's a lot of private.

Land owners within that area,

and I know they they work

pretty regularly with them.

But yeah, I wish I wish I had

that information in front of me.

But I know the states do work pretty

written for other species as well.

I know they they depend on private

land owners quite a bit for

conservation efforts such as this.

Yeah I can.

I see the the there's a fish question

and also just to jump on the land or

land owners question on the aquatic side,

there are certain efforts that are

done at a very local scale where

we can work with land owners to

help improve aquatic habitats,

particularly related to to farmland

and and Rangers and relating to

the spawned out salmon question.

I I would not.

Recommend eating small nuts salmon.

Once they once they enter fresh waters.

Yeah, I basically I wouldn't recommend

eating them once they they enter

the estuaries they they don't eat

so that their bodies essentially

starts to decay even at that point.

OK, uh. Wanna thank kavian Laura again

for your talk and answering the few

questions we did get from the audience.

I also want to thank all of

you for joining us tonight.

This talk will be available later for

on demand viewing at our website at

www.usgs.gov/PLS.

We do hope you come back again next

month for our talk on Yellowstone.

Volcanism on November 18th at

7:00 PM Pacific Standard Time.

Until then, thank you again for

joining us and have a good night.

Happy Halloween. And happy Halloween.

The Halloween everybody.