PubTalk 4/2011 — "Predictable Earthquakes"

--updating earthquake prediction--fact vs. fiction

by Susan Hough, USGS Seismologist 

• Although scientists were optimistic about earthquake prediction in the 1970s, reliable short-term prediction has remained an elusive goal
• What have seismologists learned from recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and Japan?
• Great strides have been made in earthquake forecasting, and to a large extent damaging earthquakes are predictable
• Active fault zones have been identified where damaging earthquakes are inevitable -- possibly within our lifetimes