Integrating association data and disease dynamics: an illustration using African Buffalo in Kruger National Park

Recognition is a prerequisite for non-random association amongst individuals. We explore how non-random association patterns (i.e. who spends time with whom) affect disease dynamics. We estimated the amount of time individuals spent together per month using radio-tracking data from African buffalo and incorporated these data into a dynamic social network model. The dynamic nature of the network has a strong influence on simulated disease dynamics particularly for diseases with shorter infectious periods. Cluster analyses of the association data demonstrated that buffalo herds were not as well defined as previously thought. Associations were more tightly clustered in 2002 than 2003, perhaps due to drier conditions in 2003. As a result, diseases may spread faster during drought conditions due to increased population mixing. Association data are often collected but this is the first use of empirical data in a network disease model in a wildlife population.