The Changing Economics of Forestry in a Hotter, Wetter South
By linking historical employment data and future climate projections, researchers supported by the Southeast CASC assessed how rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns could reshape employment in the South’s profitable forestry industry.
Across the southern United States, forestry-related jobs generate up to $27 billion in wages each year. The South is one of the world’s largest timber producers, thanks to its abundant supply of fast-growing southern yellow pine, which includes several native species such as loblolly and longleaf pines. These species are harvested for wood-based manufacturing of products like paper and furniture. Forestry jobs are physically demanding and while many take place outside, other tasks, like sawing, shaping, laminating, and assembling, occur in indoor or semi-enclosed facilities that are difficult to cool. As a result, workers and their jobs are increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures and extreme weather events associated with climate change.
As environmental and working conditions shift, researchers supported by the Southeast CASC are studying what the future holds for forestry jobs in the South. Using historical county-level employment data alongside climate projections through 2070, the researchers found that hotter temperatures negatively affect manufacturing productivity. They also show that there has been a decline in forestry workforce numbers over time. The physical toll of working in excessive heat is linked to health risks such as exhaustion and heat stroke, making these jobs more dangerous and less sustainable. However, climate change may also bring increased rainfall to the region, which could boost tree growth and create new opportunities for expanding timber manufacturing. This growth – both literal and economic – could prompt industry leaders to adopt new strategies to improve heat management in facilities, sustaining productivity while also protecting employee health.
Understanding how climate change will impact forestry resources and forestry workers is critical for maintaining the forest-based economy in the South. The study, titled “Forest-Based Employment in the Southern United States Under Climate Change: Historical Impacts and Future Projections,” was published in the journal Forest Science.