Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in the Freshwater/Saltwater Interface and Related Impacts to Aquatic Species Active

Coastal ecosystems are uniquely vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of freshwater discharge. With a warming climate, changes in freshwater discharge into estuaries will interact with rising sea levels. Coastal natural resource managers need guidance on the potential impacts and vulnerabilities to better manage the risks to aquatic species and habitats and to mitigate species decline or collapse resulting from changes in freshwater availability. This project will inform resource managers on the development of management plans that protect coastal ecosystems and species while accounting for changes in freshwater availability under climate uncertainty. To achieve this, the proposed project has three objectives. The first objective is to analyze and synthesize the estuarine and marine species and habitats known to be sensitive to changes in the timing and quality of freshwater discharge, as well as the associated tipping points that define the relationships between freshwater inputs and species/habitats. Second, the project aims to predict changes in freshwater discharge to estuaries across the contiguous U.S. using the newly developed freshwater availability projections created by the USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center. The third goal is to build upon and apply existing vulnerability frameworks that integrate key social and ecological factors to a system of coastal species that are of cultural, ecological, or economic importance and vulnerable to shifts in freshwater availability. Partners will be engaged throughout all stages of the project, including natural resource managers at National Wildlife Refuges, National Parks and Seashores, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, as well as state water management and fisheries agencies. The proposed project will generate reference tables, integrated datasets, vulnerability maps, estimates of uncertainty and risk for resources of interest, and a representative case study. Together these will provide actionable information to develop metrics for enhancing coastal resiliency.