Current Status and Next Steps Active
What's going on and what's coming up with ShakeAlert?
Current Status
Since 2008, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has supported research and development on earthquake early warning in partnership with Caltech, University of California Berkeley, and others, with goals to develop methods that would allow rapid detection of earthquakes in the western United States, to test and improve those methods using the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), to define the network improvements that would be needed to support a fully operational system, and to build a prototype system capable of providing early warnings to certain test users. Continued funding of and by the USGS complements funding from a private foundation recently awarded to the academic institutions (partners in the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) for research on and development of EEW components. This increase is part of an $8.6 million initiative to improve USGS disaster response capabilities through preparedness and robust monitoring.
The earthquake early warning system under development leverages federal and state investments already made in the ANSS that monitors earthquake activity in the US. By utilizing an existing, active seismic network, the early warning system can be tested and monitored daily through existing operations. Any infrastructure improvements required for EEW will also result in improved information for emergency response and aftershock forecasting. For instance, in 2011, upgrades to stations across California have been completed to reduce latencies in packaging and sending ground motion observations useful for EEW.
Next Steps
Improving the sensor network
The most important component of an earthquake early warning system is a dense network of seismic and geodetic stations with robust communications. Future development of the warning system will include the installation of larger numbers of seismic stations and upgrading station telecommunications. The current seismic station densities in California are currently much lower than the Japanese public alert system. New sensors are needed in California to reduce earthquake detection times allowing warnings to be issued faster.
Additional Sources of Ground Motion Measurements
In the future, additional sources of ground motion observations can be integrated in the EEW algorithms. Additional data may be able to help reduce the time to detection and improve early estimates of earthquake magnitude and location.
Some examples include:
- Real-time GPS displacements. Throughout California there are over a hundred high sample rate Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors that provide very accurate measurements of ground displacement. Data is collected from several regional GPS network including from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network and Bay Area Regional Deformation Network. Measurements of ground displacement can be very useful for identifying large earthquakes that can have centimeters to meters of ground displacement. It can be challenging to recover displacements in real time because very accurate information is needed on the orbits of the GPS satellites. Several research groups within the USGS and at collaborating universities are currently developing algorithms to estimate GPS positions accurately in real-time and methods to integrate the information into existing EEW algorithms.
- Low-cost sensors hosted in homes, businesses, and schools. New sensor technologies have greatly reduced the cost of lower-resolution strong motion seismometers. These sensors use micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers that are contained on a single computer chip. Scientists have been exploring ways to utilize theses sensors to increase the number of strong motion sensors in urban areas. Two examples include the Quake-Catcher Network and the Community Seismic Network that install low-cost sensors in homes, businesses, and schools.
Issuing Warnings
Every available technology will be used to ensure that EEW messages reach as many people and as quickly as possible. Most currently available mass messaging technologies are too slow for EEW. Unlike the Japanese system, here in the US we are unable to send messages to large numbers of cell phones without delays. However, many promising technologies are on the horizon like broadcast text messaging, smartphone apps and recent upgrades to the national Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). EEW may also open the door to many public/private partnerships.
Information on the ShakeAlert Product
Public Outreach
The EEW system must be connected with users of the warning ahead of time, and therefore requires a public outreach effort upon implementation to make people aware of the system and how to respond to it. Responses are most effective when automated and pre-established so the recipients know what action to take when they get a warning.
What's going on and what's coming up with ShakeAlert?
Current Status
Since 2008, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has supported research and development on earthquake early warning in partnership with Caltech, University of California Berkeley, and others, with goals to develop methods that would allow rapid detection of earthquakes in the western United States, to test and improve those methods using the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), to define the network improvements that would be needed to support a fully operational system, and to build a prototype system capable of providing early warnings to certain test users. Continued funding of and by the USGS complements funding from a private foundation recently awarded to the academic institutions (partners in the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) for research on and development of EEW components. This increase is part of an $8.6 million initiative to improve USGS disaster response capabilities through preparedness and robust monitoring.
The earthquake early warning system under development leverages federal and state investments already made in the ANSS that monitors earthquake activity in the US. By utilizing an existing, active seismic network, the early warning system can be tested and monitored daily through existing operations. Any infrastructure improvements required for EEW will also result in improved information for emergency response and aftershock forecasting. For instance, in 2011, upgrades to stations across California have been completed to reduce latencies in packaging and sending ground motion observations useful for EEW.
Next Steps
Improving the sensor network
The most important component of an earthquake early warning system is a dense network of seismic and geodetic stations with robust communications. Future development of the warning system will include the installation of larger numbers of seismic stations and upgrading station telecommunications. The current seismic station densities in California are currently much lower than the Japanese public alert system. New sensors are needed in California to reduce earthquake detection times allowing warnings to be issued faster.
Additional Sources of Ground Motion Measurements
In the future, additional sources of ground motion observations can be integrated in the EEW algorithms. Additional data may be able to help reduce the time to detection and improve early estimates of earthquake magnitude and location.
Some examples include:
- Real-time GPS displacements. Throughout California there are over a hundred high sample rate Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors that provide very accurate measurements of ground displacement. Data is collected from several regional GPS network including from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network and Bay Area Regional Deformation Network. Measurements of ground displacement can be very useful for identifying large earthquakes that can have centimeters to meters of ground displacement. It can be challenging to recover displacements in real time because very accurate information is needed on the orbits of the GPS satellites. Several research groups within the USGS and at collaborating universities are currently developing algorithms to estimate GPS positions accurately in real-time and methods to integrate the information into existing EEW algorithms.
- Low-cost sensors hosted in homes, businesses, and schools. New sensor technologies have greatly reduced the cost of lower-resolution strong motion seismometers. These sensors use micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers that are contained on a single computer chip. Scientists have been exploring ways to utilize theses sensors to increase the number of strong motion sensors in urban areas. Two examples include the Quake-Catcher Network and the Community Seismic Network that install low-cost sensors in homes, businesses, and schools.
Issuing Warnings
Every available technology will be used to ensure that EEW messages reach as many people and as quickly as possible. Most currently available mass messaging technologies are too slow for EEW. Unlike the Japanese system, here in the US we are unable to send messages to large numbers of cell phones without delays. However, many promising technologies are on the horizon like broadcast text messaging, smartphone apps and recent upgrades to the national Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). EEW may also open the door to many public/private partnerships.
Information on the ShakeAlert Product
Public Outreach
The EEW system must be connected with users of the warning ahead of time, and therefore requires a public outreach effort upon implementation to make people aware of the system and how to respond to it. Responses are most effective when automated and pre-established so the recipients know what action to take when they get a warning.