Hazard Estimation for Induced Earthquakes Completed
In 2016, 2017, and 2018, the USGS released induced earthquake hazard models. These models forecast the expected strength and frequency of potential ground shaking from future induced and natural earthquakes for a one-year period, based primarily on earthquake data from the previous year.
Areas of high induced earthquake hazard were identified in Oklahoma-southern Kansas, the Raton Basin (CO/NM border), north-central Texas, and north-central Arkansas. Near some areas of these active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than natural earthquakes by a factor of 3 and is similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes in parts of California.
Earthquakes that were attributed to human activity have previously not been used for making earthquake hazard forecasts. However, the recent increase in induced earthquakes in some areas of the central United States (e.g., Oklahoma) that has included earthquakes that caused damage to buildings and other structures, induced earthquakes now need to be considered.
Continuing Research
Current research activities include: measuring earthquake activity with seismic sensors, measuring fluid pressures at depths of injection, developing numerical models to simulate how earthquakes are induced, developing models to forecast induced earthquake rates based upon fluid injection, analyzing the differences between induced and natural earthquake sources, determining which injection and geologic parameters influence the likelihood of induced earthquakes. The USGS welcomes feedback from industry, academia, and users of the forecasts as this work continues.
- Overview
In 2016, 2017, and 2018, the USGS released induced earthquake hazard models. These models forecast the expected strength and frequency of potential ground shaking from future induced and natural earthquakes for a one-year period, based primarily on earthquake data from the previous year.
Areas of high induced earthquake hazard were identified in Oklahoma-southern Kansas, the Raton Basin (CO/NM border), north-central Texas, and north-central Arkansas. Near some areas of these active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than natural earthquakes by a factor of 3 and is similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes in parts of California.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media DetailsChance of damage forecasted from an earthquake during 2018. (Public domain.) Earthquakes that were attributed to human activity have previously not been used for making earthquake hazard forecasts. However, the recent increase in induced earthquakes in some areas of the central United States (e.g., Oklahoma) that has included earthquakes that caused damage to buildings and other structures, induced earthquakes now need to be considered.
Continuing Research
Current research activities include: measuring earthquake activity with seismic sensors, measuring fluid pressures at depths of injection, developing numerical models to simulate how earthquakes are induced, developing models to forecast induced earthquake rates based upon fluid injection, analyzing the differences between induced and natural earthquake sources, determining which injection and geologic parameters influence the likelihood of induced earthquakes. The USGS welcomes feedback from industry, academia, and users of the forecasts as this work continues.