Researchers from the USGS Ecosystems' Land Change Science (ELCS) Program, USGS California Volcano Observatory, Montana State University, and other collaborating organizations have advanced our understanding of how the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and geyser basins have changed over thousands of years. By integrating geological evidence from past vegetation and wildfire activity with limnology and hydrothermal dynamics, the team reconstructed how climate and hydrothermal activity shaped the Yellowstone geo-ecosystem throughout the Holocene. 

A central contribution to this work came from ELCS scientist Dr. Jay Alder, who generated high-resolution paleoclimate simulations for Yellowstone at key time periods over the last 15,000 years. Using the USGS supercomputer, Alder helped the team see how past climate played out on the local landscape by transforming broad, global climate data into fine-scale regional models. He refined large, low detail climate simulations into much more precise ones by narrowing the focus down to scales as small as 15 kilometers and providing a clearer picture of how climate shifts influenced ecological and geological change. This type of modeling is rarely done for ancient climates and required months of supercomputer processing, resulting in a unique dataset that is now publicly available. His work highlights the specialized expertise within the ELCS Program and emphasizes how cutting-edge modeling tools can unlock new insights into Yellowstone’s history. 

The collaboration showcases how advanced computational tools and cross institutional expertise are opening new windows into Yellowstone’s long-term ecological and geological history. The work also reflects the breadth of USGS paleoclimate expertise, including contributions from retired USGS ELCS scientist Steve Hostetler, who helped analyze and interpret the climate model outputs. Together, the team’s efforts illustrate the climate-driven processes that have shaped one of the world’s most iconic geothermal landscapes. 

Read the paper: C. Whitlock, C.M. Schiller, S.W. Hostetler, S. Hurwitz, M. Alt, S.R. Brown, L.N. Harrison, J.R. Alder, K. Busch, J. Shelly, & D.B. McWethy, Postglacial ecosystem development of a hydrothermal landscape in Yellowstone National Park, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 123 (35) e2613422123, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2613422123 (2026).