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Jay Alder

Jay Alder is a Physical Scientist based in Corvallis, Oregon with the Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center. Jay maintains a courtesy faculty position in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.

Jay is a climate modeler with interests in past, present and future climate change, dynamically downscaling, hydroclimate, and model visualization. He is interested in helping to make climate model information accessible and useful to other scientific disciplines seeking to incorporate future climate change projections into their own work.

Professional Experience

  • 2012-present Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.
    2012-present Courtesy Research Associate, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.

  • 2011-2012 Research Associate, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.

  • 2009-2011 Student Services, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.

  • 2004-2008 Software Developer, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California.

Education and Certifications

  • PhD, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2011)

  • MS, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2009)

  • BS, Environmental Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)

  • BS, Computer Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)

Science and Products

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Tongue River between Tongue River Reservoir and Birney, MT

Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving: - a shift in precipitation from snow to rain - changing precipitation intensity and seasonality - increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States (Seager and others, 2015). These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining mountains. The Tongue River flows from the...
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Water Resources Mission Area, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
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Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving: - a shift in precipitation from snow to rain - changing precipitation intensity and seasonality - increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States (Seager and others, 2015). These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining mountains. The Tongue River flows from the...
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Tongue River between Tongue River Reservoir and Birney, MT

Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, changing precipitation intensity and seasonality, and increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States. These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining from the mountains. The Tongue River flows from the Bighorn mountains in nor
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, changing precipitation intensity and seasonality, and increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States. These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining from the mountains. The Tongue River flows from the Bighorn mountains in nor
Learn More
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Photo of planktic foraminifers from the Gulf of Mexico sediment trap seen through the microscope

Pacific Ocean Patterns, Processes, and Productivity (POP3): Impacts of ancient warming on marine ecosystems and western North America

Projections for AD 2100 suggest warming of +1-4°C in the North Pacific Ocean, which will result in widespread transformations throughout the marine environment and western North America. Many of these changes are beyond the predictive capabilities of current climate models. To better address this future uncertainty, our team is developing a geological framework using past warm intervals as...
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Deep Sea Exploration, Mapping and Characterization
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Pacific Ocean Patterns, Processes, and Productivity (POP3): Impacts of ancient warming on marine ecosystems and western North America

Projections for AD 2100 suggest warming of +1-4°C in the North Pacific Ocean, which will result in widespread transformations throughout the marine environment and western North America. Many of these changes are beyond the predictive capabilities of current climate models. To better address this future uncertainty, our team is developing a geological framework using past warm intervals as...
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Geospatial files and tabular exposure estimates of sinkhole susceptibility for counties in the conterminous United States for current conditions and projections for the years 2070-2079 - Overview

These datasets support the conclusions in the journal article entitled "Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States" as described in the abstract below: Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous United State
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Western Geographic Science Center

Data release for Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (1). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26-14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we
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Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center

Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure

Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that accurate recon
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Climate Research and Development Program, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center

CMIP5 MACAv2-METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2099 for the Contiguous United States

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model.
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Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

SPARROW model inputs and simulated future baseflow for streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to estimate baseflow changes from historical (1984 - 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions. SPARROW is a spatially explicit hybrid statistical and process-based model that estimates mean baseflow ove
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Utah Water Science Center

Data release for Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (vol 1), Chapter 7. Future Water Projections for the GYA

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. The statistica
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Climate Research and Development Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Data release for Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets

The data release consists of a single NetCDF file with results from a suite of ice sheet model simulations. We ran with Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) with input from models used in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison 3 (PMIP3). The NetCDF file contains output from model year 5000 for a limited number of variables to keep the file size reasonably small. This subset of variables are the
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Climate Research and Development Program, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Data Release for The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow-dominated regions of the western U.S. on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data

Climate change information simulated by global climate models is downscaled using statistical methods to translate spatially course regional projections to finer resolutions needed by researchers and managers to assess local climate impacts. Several statistical downscaling methods have been developed over the past fifteen years, resulting in multiple datasets derived by different methods. We apply
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Climate Research and Development Program
Image of simulated global temperature change

Simulated global temperature change

This animated spiral portrays the simulated changes in the global averaged monthly air temperature from 1850 through 2100 relative to the 1850 - 1900 average. The temperature data are from Community Climate System (CCSM4) global climate model maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

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Climate Research and Development Program
Filter Total Items: 26

Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States

Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous United States (U.S.) from 10-m-resolution elevation data using high-performance computing, and then created a heuristic additive model of sinkhole susceptibility that also included nationally consistent data for factors related t
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Nathan J. Wood, Daniel H. Doctor, Jay R. Alder, Jeanne M. Jones
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Western Geographic Science Center

Roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors in shaping Holocene vegetation and fire regimes in Great Dismal Swamp, eastern USA

The Great Dismal Swamp wetland, spanning >400 km2 along the Virginia and North Carolina border, was shaped by a complex combination of geomorphic, climatic, and anthropogenic forcings during the last 14,000 years. Pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, and physical properties from sediment cores at seven sites provide a detailed record of the spatial heterogeneity of the wetland and the roles played by n
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Debra A. Willard, Miriam C. Jones, Jay R. Alder, David Fastovich, Kristen Hoefke, Robert Poirier, Fred C. Wurster
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Florence Bascom Geoscience Center

Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific Coast

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we
Authors
Summer K. Praetorius, Jay R. Alder, Alan Condron, Alan Mix, Maureen Walczak, Beth Elaine Caissie, Jon Erlandson
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Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Hydrologic controls on peat permafrost and carbon processes: New insights from past and future modeling

Soil carbon (C) in permafrost peatlands is vulnerable to decomposition with thaw under a warming climate. The amount and form of C loss likely depends on the site hydrology following permafrost thaw, but antecedent conditions during peat accumulation are also likely important. We test the role of differing hydrologic conditions on rates of peat accumulation, permafrost formation, and response to w
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Claire C. Treat, Miriam C. Jones, Jay R. Alder, Steve Frolking
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Florence Bascom Geoscience Center

Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional earth structure

Predictive modeling of submerged archaeological sites requires accurate sea-level predictions in order to reconstruct coastal paleogeography and associated geographic features that may have influenced the locations of occupation sites such as rivers and embayments. Earlier reconstructions of the paleogeography of parts of the western U.S. coast used an assumption of eustatic sea level, but this ne
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Jorie Clark, Jay R. Alder, Marisa Borreggine, Jerry X Mitrovica, Konstantin Latychev
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Climate Research and Development Program, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Exposure of cultural resources to 21st-century climate change: Towards a risk management plan

Anthropogenic climate change during the 21st century presents a significant challenge to the protection of cultural resources (CRs) on federal lands that encompass ∼ 28% of the U.S. In particular, CRs on this land base may be adversely affected by a wide range of climate-change hazards, including damage by sea-level rise, enhanced deterioration by increasing temperature and precipitation, and dest
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Jorie Clark, Jeremy S. Littell, Jay R. Alder, Nathan Teats
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Climate Research and Development Program

How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic condi
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Olivia L. Miller, Matthew P. Miller, Patrick Cullen Longley, Jay R. Alder, Lindsay A. Bearup, Tom Pruitt, Daniel Jones, Annie Laura Putman, Christine Rumsey, Tim S. McKinney
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Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Utah Water Science Center

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1).
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Steven W. Hostetler, Cathy Whitlock, Bryan Shuman, David Liefert, Charles Wolf Drimal, Scott Bischke
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada

Climate warming in high-latitude regions is thawing carbon-rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long-term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM-Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern Canada. We
Authors
Claire C. Treat, Miriam C. Jones, Jay R. Alder, A. Britta K. Sannel, Philip Camill, Steve Frolking
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Climate Research and Development Program, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future strea
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Annie Laura Putman, Jay R. Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel Jones, Daniel Wise
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Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Utah Water Science Center

Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon, supporting a role f
Authors
Maureen Walczak, Alan Mix, Ellen Cowan, Stewart Fallon, Keith Fitfield, Jay R. Alder, Jianghui Du, Brian Haley, Tim Hobern, June Padman, Summer K. Praetorius, Andreas Schmittner, Joseph Stoner, Sarah Zellers
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Climate Research and Development Program, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center

Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections

The goal of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit’s (CRT) Climate Explorer (CE) is to provide information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to help practitioners gain insights into the risks posed by climate change. Ultimately, these insights can lead to groups of local stakeholders taking action to build their resilience to a changing climate. Using CE, decision-makers can visualize decade
Authors
Fredric Lipschultz, David Herring, Andrea J. Ray, Jay R. Alder, LuAnn Dahlman, Arthur DeGaetano, James F. Fox, Edward Gardiner, Jamie Herring, Jeff Hicks, Forrest Melton, Philip E. Morefield, William Sweet
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Climate Research and Development Program, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D., Schmittner, A., 2011, Evaluation of a present day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 69- 83, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV)

The USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV) includes the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2099) climate and water balance projections derived from 20 downscaled CMIP5 climate models for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios.

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Climate Research and Development Program
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Picture This: A National Climate Change Viewer that Helps Land Managers and Decision Makers Plan for Climate Change

The enormity of the challenge posed by climate change makes it difficult to visualize and understand on the ground. Even though wide-ranging impacts...

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National Climate Change Viewer data used in an evaluation comparing statistical downscaling methods and data sets

A comprehensive evaluation comparing hydroclimate projections derived from six statistically downscaled data sets, including data underpinning the...

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