Bird migration and energetics simulations incorporating oil spill effects

Oil spills are well-known for causing acute mortality of birds, but sublethal and delayed impacts are less understood. Focusing on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), we used simulation modeling to explore how sublethal oiling may affect avian survival and breeding ground body condition. We used empirically informed migration and energetics simulations to model hypothetical spills occurring in northern Arkansas, USA occurring in either January to simulate thermoregulatory stress or March to simulate pre-migration effects. We modeled trace and lightly oiled female mallards (≤5% or 6 to 20% of feather area oiled, respectively), incorporating oiling-induced energetic effects on thermoregulation, flight, and energetic gain. We found that mortality was generally higher for simulated spills occurring in January versus March. In the simulations, mallards lost body mass due to oiling, but surviving individuals could partially recover body mass before arriving at the breeding grounds. Including oiling-induced energetic gain effects in simulations increased mortality as well as increased overall variability of simulation results. This modeling effort identified an important gap in knowledge regarding oiled bird energetics, specifically a need to better quantify oiling-induced energetic gain changes. Although the model is currently limited to a specific species and geographic area, it serves as a proof-of-concept for future research and modeling efforts aimed at understanding more broadly the impacts of oil spills on avian populations.