I am a quantitative ecologist conducting scholarly research at the intersection of animal ecology, spatial analyses, and statistics. My interests are in population ecology for animals declining in abundance, asking new questions of multiple, combined data sets to gain novel insight into the dynamics of animal populations, and translating science into guidance for practical management decisions.
Professional Experience
2014 to the present Research Ecologist, US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603
2002 to 2014 Research Statistician (Biology), US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603
1995 Wildlife Biologist, United States Forest Service, Forestry Sciences Lab
Education and Certifications
PhD, Zoology, Southern Illinois University, May, 2002
MS, Zoology, University of Arkansas, May, 1998
BA, Ecology / Behavior / Evolution, University of California, San Diego, June, 1990
Science and Products
Status of butterflies in the United States
TrendPowerTool: A web lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
Decision-support tool for managing endangered species in the face of uncertainty
Monarch Conservation Planning Tools
Developing online integrated data visualization tools for WNS and NABat
Modeling the response of cave hibernating Myotis species to white-nose syndrome mitigation tactics
Integrating colony counts with NABat acoustic data to reveal the true impacts of White-Nose Syndrome on northern long-eared bats
A continental-scale study of acoustic phenology to improve population monitoring and inform management of hibernating bats
Quantifying vulnerability of bat species to White-nose Syndrome across North America
Bat Research
Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse”
Monarch Conservation Science Partnership Map Viewer and Tools
Blue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021
Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Simulated impacts of feather oiling on avian energetics and migration: R environment model code and raw output
Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data
R code: Landscape- and local-level variables associated with monarch breeding occurrence and abundance at patches in Wisconsin grasslands
Monarch Butterfly patch and landscape data for Wisconsin, 2018-2019
In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Winter Colony Count Analysis
Data release for ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Using ecosystem services to identify inequitable outcomes in migratory species conservation
Early treatment of white-nose syndrome is necessary to stop population decline
Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019
• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation
Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model
Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands
Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
Bridging the research-implementation gap in avian conservation with translational ecology
TrendPowerTool: A lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
The scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America
Summary of available data from the monarch overwintering colonies in central Mexico, 1976–1991
NABat: A top-down, bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring
Applying Simulated Treatments to Bat Populations Experiencing Severe White-nose Syndrome Mortality
GRTS for Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program Code
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 19
Status of butterflies in the United States
The pervasive nature of insect species’ declines has led to the specter of an “Insect Armageddon” in the popular press. Insect-derived ecosystem services are valued at > $57 billion in the U.S. and thus the loss of insects has the potential to fundamentally disrupt natural and economic systems.The causes of insect declines have been linked to changes in climate, land use and pesticide use, but the...TrendPowerTool: A web lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool, to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation-based power analysis (Fig. 1)...Decision-support tool for managing endangered species in the face of uncertainty
Along the Santa Clara River in California, populations of the federally and state-listed Least Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii pusillus) are recovering from near extirpation. Habitat protection and restoration, as well as reducing brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater), are thought to be the primary drivers of this recovery. The challenge going forward is to find the right balance...Monarch Conservation Planning Tools
Monarch Conservation Planning ToolsDeveloping online integrated data visualization tools for WNS and NABat
Bat Research Research collaboration: Brian Reichert (FORT), Anne Ballmann (NWHC), Jeremy Coleman (USFWS), Paul Cryan (FORT), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), and Katherine Irvine (NOROCK) White-nose syndrome is caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), which has decimated hibernating bat populations across North America since it emerged 10 years ago in New York. While diagnostic...Modeling the response of cave hibernating Myotis species to white-nose syndrome mitigation tactics
Bat Research Research collaboration: Robin Russell (NWHC), Tonie Rocke (NWHC), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Evan Grant (PWRC) White-nose syndrome is a fungal disease devastating cave-hibernating bat species (Myotis spp.) in the eastern United States. Several mitigation tactics have been proposed to alleviate the effects of white-nose syndrome on bats including probiotics and vaccination. Questions...Integrating colony counts with NABat acoustic data to reveal the true impacts of White-Nose Syndrome on northern long-eared bats
Bat Research Research collaboration: Brian Reichert (FORT), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Tina Cheng (Bat Conservation International) The northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) was listed as Threatened on the Endangered Species Act in 2014 due to rapid declines in numbers of observed hibernating bats at winter roosting sites after the arrival...A continental-scale study of acoustic phenology to improve population monitoring and inform management of hibernating bats
Bat Research Research collaboration: Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Theodore Weller (U.S. Forest Service), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Craig Willis (University of Winnipeg), and Brian Reichert (FORT) White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has caused severe declines in bat populations over the past 10 years and colony sizes at winter hibernacula have decreased on average by >90% for three...Quantifying vulnerability of bat species to White-nose Syndrome across North America
Bat Research Research collaboration: Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Brian Reichert (FORT), Theodore Weller (US Forest Service), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC) and the North American Bat Colony Count Consortium We quantify vulnerability of bat species in North America to target and prioritize management actions toward species and habitats that are most at risk from impacts from White...Bat Research
White-nose syndrome (WNS) caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) has decimated hibernating bat populations across North America since it emerged 10 years ago in New York. As Pd has spread across North America, infection dynamics and mortality from WNS have varied among species and across sites. The mechanisms behind vulnerability of species across the current and expanding...Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse”
Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation co...Monarch Conservation Science Partnership Map Viewer and Tools
This web mapping application is a repository for data and tools that support the Monarch Conservation Science Partnership. - Data
Blue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021
These data are comprised of geo-located breeding season occurrences of Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in North America, 1963-2021. These data were collated from eBird (Cornell Lab of Ornithology) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (US Geological Survey).Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.Simulated impacts of feather oiling on avian energetics and migration: R environment model code and raw output
This dataset represents a modeling effort intended to explore the impacts of oiling on migratory birds. The purpose of this model is to provide a first principles approach to predict potential biological impacts of altered energetics dynamics in north American migratory birds due to oiling of feathers. This data includes predicted theoretical impacts on migration timing, wintering latitude, starvaDemographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated futurStatus and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
This data release contains the results from the North American Bat Monitoring Program's report titled 'Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019'. Specifically, these data include tabular data and geospatial data for the species-specific results related to the status and trends of 12 bat species at multiple spatial scales including: 10 km x 10 km grid cells, statMulti-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surMulti-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surR code: Landscape- and local-level variables associated with monarch breeding occurrence and abundance at patches in Wisconsin grasslands
This code file accompanies a manuscript describing associations of monarch breeding occurrence and abundance with landscape and local characteristics at locations in northern and southern Wisconsin. Context for the study can be obtained from the manuscript (Bruce (nee Harnsberger), A.S., Thogmartin, W.E., Trosen, C., Oberhauser, K., and Gratton, C., In-Press, Landscape- and local- level variablesMonarch Butterfly patch and landscape data for Wisconsin, 2018-2019
To ensure habitat restoration efforts are targeted towards areas maximizing monarch population growth, it is important to understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on monarch occurrence in habitat patches (i.e. grasslands with milkweeds). Over two summers (2018-2019), monarch adults, larvae, and eggs were surveyed at sixty grassland sites in Wisconsin varying in patch size and landscape coIn Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Winter Colony Count Analysis
Through the North American Bat Monitoring Program, Bat Conservation International and U.S Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical and science support to assistance in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Species Status Assessment ("SSA") for the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis), little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus), and tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). USGS facilitateData release for ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Migratory species provide important benefits to society, but their cross-border conservation poses serious challenges. By quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services (ES) provided across a species range and ecological data on a species habitat dependence, we estimate spatial subsidieshow different regions support ES provided by a species across its range. We illustrate this method for mig - Publications
Filter Total Items: 129
Using ecosystem services to identify inequitable outcomes in migratory species conservation
Biodiversity conservation efforts have been criticized for generating inequitable socio-economic outcomes. These equity challenges are largely analyzed as place-based problems affecting local communities directly impacted by conservation programs. The conservation of migratory species extends this problem geographically since people in one place may benefit while those in another bear the costs ofEarly treatment of white-nose syndrome is necessary to stop population decline
Since its introduction to North America, white-nose syndrome has been associated with declines greater than 90% in several bat species, prompting the development of treatments to reduce disease-related mortality. As treatment application is scaled up, predicting responses at the population level will help in the development of management plans.We develop a model allowing for the implementation ofStatus and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019
• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation that could help ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migration may be informed by understanding the economic values people in different countries place on the benefits they derive from migratory wildlife.We conducted conEffects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model
We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating aLandscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands
ContextIt is estimated that over one billion milkweed stems need to be restored to sustain the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies; where and in what context the stems should be placed on the landscape is key to addressing habitat deficits.ObjectivesWe assessed how the amount of appropriate habitat surrounding a particular patch of monarch habitat affects monarch preDemographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated futurByEcosystems, Energy Resources Program, Species Management Research Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Geology, Energy & Minerals Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences CenterBridging the research-implementation gap in avian conservation with translational ecology
The recognized gap between research and implementation in avian conservation can be overcome with translational ecology, an intentional approach in which science producers and users from multiple disciplines work collaboratively to co-develop and deliver ecological research that addresses management and conservation issues. Avian conservation naturally lends itself to translational ecology becauseTrendPowerTool: A lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/TrendPowerTool/), to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulThe scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America
Assessing the scope and severity of threats is necessary for evaluating impacts on populations to inform conservation planning. Quantitative threat assessment often requires monitoring programs that provide reliable data over relevant spatial and temporal scales, yet such programs can be difficult to justify until there is an apparent stressor. Leveraging efforts of wildlife management agencies toSummary of available data from the monarch overwintering colonies in central Mexico, 1976–1991
Historical estimates of the area occupied by overwintering Danaus plexippus (monarchs) in central Mexico (between winters of 1976 and 1991) were published in García-Serrano and others (2004) and more recently in Mawdsley and others (2020). Our primary objectives were to identify the specific data that informed those estimates and, importantly, determine the degree to which the reported estimates rNABat: A top-down, bottom-up solution to collaborative continental-scale monitoring
Collaborative monitoring over broad scales and levels of ecological organization can inform conservation efforts necessary to address the contemporary biodiversity crisis. An important challenge to collaborative monitoring is motivating local engagement with enough buy-in from stakeholders while providing adequate top-down direction for scientific rigor, quality control, and coordination. Collabor - Software
Applying Simulated Treatments to Bat Populations Experiencing Severe White-nose Syndrome Mortality
We developed a model allowing for the application of treatment strategies to bat populations at risk of severe mortality from WNS. The model allows the bat population to exist within a network of hibernacula and updates survival, reproduction, movement, treatment applications, and treatment related disturbance annually. For simplicity, the effects of WNS are experienced across all hibernacula on tGRTS for Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program Code
These scripts prepare input files and run a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) draw to select sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. - News