Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (