Understanding the trade-offs between short-term and long-term consequences of fire impacts on ecosystems is needed before a comprehensive fuels management program can be implemented nationally. We are evaluating 3 potential trade-off models at 8 locations in major U.S. fuel types. We present results of the initial testing of the 3 selected models/modelling approaches and a 4th model on the Bitterroot National Forest (BNF) in western Montana. The selected models/modelling approaches were 1) the Fire Emissions Trade-off Model (FETM), 2) sequential use of the SIMPPLLE and MAGIS models, 3) the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT), and 4) the LANDscape Succession Model (LANDSUM). We simulated 3 fuel treatments over 50 years: 1) no action, 2) prescribed burning in ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir types at 2 different rates, and 3) timber harvesting that returns the stand to a reproduction stage. Simulation results for all models suggested that the acreage of Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine types would not be appreciably altered by the fuel treatments. Most models suggested the harvest treatment would reduce area burned by wildfire and smoke emissions; some models suggested the prescribed fire treatment would reduce wildfire acreage. All models suggested that the harvest treatment would reduce acreage of pole-size trees; some models suggested the fire treatment would increase acreage of sapling-size trees.
