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Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

February 8, 2018

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

    Citation Information

    Publication Year 2019
    Title Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14
    DOI 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003
    Authors Heather M. Wright, John S. Pallister, Wendy A. McCausland, Julia P. Griswold, Supriyati Andreastuti, Agus Budianto, Sofyan Primulyana, Maurizio Battaglia, Angie Diefenbach, John W. Ewert, Peter J. Kelly, Christoph Kern, Martin R. LaFevers, Andrew B. Lockhart, Jeffrey N. Marso, Gari C. Mayberry, Steve P. Schilling, Rick Wessels, Randall A. White, Nurnaning Aisyah, Nugraha Kartadinata, Kristianto, Raditya Putra, Ugan Boyson Saing, Agus Solihin, Yasa Suparman, Devy Damil Syahbana, Hetty Triastuty
    Publication Type Article
    Publication Subtype Journal Article
    Series Title Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
    Series Number
    Index ID 70215340
    Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
    USGS Organization Volcano Science Center