Decision analysis of long-term research and monitoring investments for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program

Congressional authorization of the Water Resource Development Act of 2020 increased funding for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program and its Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element. With adequate resources there is an opportunity for LTRM to expand its understanding of the Upper Mississippi River System, address unmet partner information needs, and better inform restoration and management of the Upper Mississippi River System. Additional information needs will need to be identified and prioritized in a manner that accounts for potential tradeoffs among the preferences of UMRR partners for long-term commitments of effort. In this report, we describe a decision analysis process used by UMRR partners to develop a comprehensive framework for prioritizing and selecting the information needs they would address in the event of changes in available resources. The partners of the UMRR formed a “planning team” with members representing the UMRR partner agencies to work through the decision analysis process. This team included two facilitators who led the decision analysis process. The planning team began this process by articulating a consensus understanding of the specific decisions to be made and identifying a set of decision outcomes (objectives) the UMRR partners wanted to achieve. Next, they identified information needs not being addressed by ongoing monitoring and research, developed criteria for assessing the expected benefit of addressing each information need, and estimated the costs of addressing each information need. They then used an optimization approach to identify the portfolio of information needs that would produce the most benefit for a given cost if they were effectively addressed. Originally, the planning team expected this analysis to inform a project plan that would start in 2024, but in recognition of financial uncertainties, we refer to planning dates as the number of years after resources become available (for example, “year 1,” “year 2,” and so on).