Detecting population declines via monitoring the effective number of breeders (Nb)

Estimating the effective population size and effective number of breeders per year (N_b) can facilitate early detection of population declines. We used computer simulations to quantify bias and precision of the one-sample LDNe estimator of N_b in age-structured populations using a range of published species life history types, sample sizes, and DNA markers. N_b estimates were biased by ~5%–10% when using SNPs or microsatellites in species ranging from fishes to mosquitoes, frogs, and seaweed. The bias (high or low) was similar for different life history types within a species suggesting that life history variation in populations will not influence N_b estimation. Precision was higher for 100 SNPs (H ≈ 0.30) than for 15 microsatellites (H ≈ 0.70). Confidence intervals (CIs) were occasionally too narrow, and biased high when N_b was small (N_b