Earthquake recurrence on the Calaveras fault east of San Jose, California

Occurrence of small (3 ⩽ M_L < 4) earthquakes on two 10-km segments of the Calaveras fault between Calaveras and Anderson reservoirs follows a simple linear pattern of elastic strain accumulation and release. The centers of these independent patches of earthquake activity are 20 km apart. Each region is characterized by a constant rate of seismic slip as computed from earthquake magnitudes, and is assumed to be an isolated locked patch on a creeping fault surface. By calculating seismic slip rates and the amount of seismic slip since the time of the last significant (M ⩾ 3) earthquake, it is possible to estimate the most likely date of the next (M ⩾- 3) event on each patch. The larger the last significant event, the longer the time until the next one. The recurrence time also appears to be increased according to the moment of smaller (2