Effects of temperature on ectothermic predators are modulated by warming-induced changes to prey

Global temperature increases can fundamentally alter ecosystems through myriad pathways including by impacting top predators, whose movement, behavior, and trophic interactions often shape the structure of food webs and associated ecosystem processes. Forecasting how ectothermic predators will respond to climate change currently relies heavily on quantifying the direct impacts of temperature on their physiology and performance. However, prey resources are also likely to shift with warming, but less is known about how changes in ecosystem productivity may interact with rising temperatures to influence ectothermic predators. Understanding such interactions can thus help refine predictions for how these consumers will respond to a dynamic future and may clarify recent findings that some cold-water species are buffered and even benefit from warming temperatures despite elevated metabolic costs. Here, we capitalize on a growing body of literature linking temperature increases to changes in invertebrate prey assemblages to describe how these drivers interact to influence the performance (e.g., body size and growth rate) of a globally distributed ectothermic predator in freshwater ecosystems. We disentangled these drivers with a novel approach that blends conceptual synthesis and a mechanistic drift foraging-bioenergetics model developed for Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout). Overall, we found that warming-induced changes to invertebrate prey assemblage size structure, production, or both, can strongly reshape thermal performance curves describing how rainbow trout respond to temperature. Notably, we found that shifts towards larger-bodied prey or higher prey production increased trout performance across a gradient of temperatures. Additionally, our results show that these shifts in prey also increased the temperature that optimizes fish growth. Our findings underscore the critical role that prey resources may play in either buffering or amplifying future risks of warming and can help improve future conservation and management of ectothermic animals, including cold-water fish, in a warmer and rapidly changing world.