Evaluating propagation method performance over time with Bayesian updating: An application to incubator testing

In captive-rearing programs, small sample sizes can limit the quality of information on performance of propagation methods. Bayesian updating can be used to increase information on method performance over time. We demonstrate an application to incubator testing at USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. A new type of incubator was purchased for use in the whooping crane (Grus americana) propagation program, which produces birds for release. We tested the new incubator for reliability, using sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) eggs as surrogates. We determined that the new incubator should result in hatching rates no more than 5% lower than the available incubators, with 95% confidence, before it would be used to incubate whooping crane eggs. In 2007, 5 healthy chicks hatched from 12 eggs in the new incubator, and 2 hatched from 5 in an available incubator, for a median posterior difference of