Stocks of Atlantic striped bass Morone saxatilis that were assumed to be geographically isolated during spawning showed strong antigenic differences in blood serum albumin. A discriminant function was estimated from the immunologic responses of northern (Canadian and Hudson River) and southern (Chesapeake Bay and Roanoke River) stocks to two reference antisera. The function correctly classified 92% of the northern and 95% of the southern fish in the training set. Cross-validation revealed similar percentages of correct classification for fish that were of known origin but not used to estimate the discriminant function. Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the ability of the discriminant function to predict the relative contribution of northern fish in samples of various size and stock composition. Averages of predicted proportions of northern fish in the samples agreed well with actual proportions. Coefficients of variation (100 × SD/mean) in the predicted proportions ranged from 1.5 to 36% for samples of 50–400 fish that contained at least 10% northern stock. In samples that contained only 2% northern stock, however, at least 1,600 fish were required to achieve similar levels of precision.
