Implications of uncertainty in exposure assessment for groundwater contamination

Decision-making on regulation, mitigation, and treatment of drinking water contamination depends, in part, on estimates of human exposure. Assessment of past, present and potential future exposure levels requires quantitative characterization of the contaminant sources, the transport of contaminants and the level of actual human exposure to the contaminated water. Failure to consider the uncertainties in these three components of exposure assessment can lead to poor decisions such as implementing an inappropriate mitigation strategy or failing to regulate an important contaminant. Three examples from US Geological Survey hydrogeologic studies in southern California are presented to illustrate some of the unique uncertainties associated with exposure assessment for groundwater contamination.