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Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)

September 9, 2021

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multifault ruptures, elastic‐rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise triggered events). The two main improvements include adding aleatory variability in aftershock productivity and the option to represent off‐fault events with finite‐rupture surfaces. We also summarize the studies that led to these modifications, and reflect on how past and future uses of the model can improve our understanding of earthquake processes and the hazards and risks they pose.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2021
Title Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)
DOI 10.1785/0320210017
Authors Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, Nicholas van der Elst
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title The Seismic Record
Series Number
Index ID 70230349
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Earthquake Science Center