Invaders from islands: Thermal matching, potential or flexibility?

Native-range thermal constraints may not reflect the geographical distributions of species introduced from native island ranges in part due to rapid physiological adaptation in species introduced to new environments. Correlative ecological niche models may thus underestimate potential invasive distributions of species from islands. The northern curly-tailed lizard (Leiocephalus carinatus) is established in Florida, including populations north of its native range. Competing hypotheses may explain this distribution: Thermal Matching (distribution reflects thermal conditions of the native range), Thermal Potential (species tolerates thermal extremes absent in the native range) and/or Thermal Flexibility (thermal tolerance reflects local thermal extremes). We rejected the Thermal Matching hypothesis by comparing ecological niche models developed from native vs. native plus invasive distributions; L. carinatus exists in areas of low suitability in Florida as predicted by the native-distribution model. We then compared critical thermal limits of L. carinatus from two non-native populations to evaluate the Thermal Potential and Flexibility hypotheses: one matching native range latitudes, and another 160 km north of the native range that experiences more frequent cold weather events. Critical thermal minima in the northern population were lower than in the south, supporting the Thermal Flexibility hypothesis, whereas critical thermal maxima did not differ.