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Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

January 9, 2016

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Publication Year 2016
Title Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
DOI 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317
Authors Mike Dietze, Andrew Fox, Julio L. Betancourt, Mevin Hooten, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Tim H. Keitt, Melissa Kenney, Christine Laney, Laurel Larsen, Henry W. Loescher, Claire Lunch, Bryan Pijanowski, James T. Randerson, Emily K. Read, Andrew T. Tredennick, Kathleen Weathers, Ethan P. White
Publication Type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Index ID 70185996
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization National Research Program - Eastern Branch